2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hurricane2022]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/6qw7vGXZ/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh210-384-2.gif [/url]
18z GFS…

Happy hour GFS!!!

[Category5Kaiju]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/6qw7vGXZ/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh210-384-2.gif [/url]
18z GFS… Goes over Hispaniola & Cuba and maintains MH into KW and EGOM…

It's a wanna-be Georges lol

[Ianswfl]

https://i.postimg.cc/6qw7vGXZ/gfs-mslp- ... -384-2.gif
18z GFS… Goes over Hispaniola & Cuba and maintains MH into KW and EGOM…

It's a wanna-be Georges lol

Except stronger. Almost looks like the path up the west coast of FL that Irma was forecasted to do. Keys and landfall around Sarasota.

This GFS run would be the knockout blow to Ft. Myers Beach, Sanibel and that. Would never see full recovery.

[emeraldislenc]

I really enjoy storm 2k but I must admit there are two phrases that are so overused and I get so tired of hearing:
1 Fish Storm
2. Happy hour run

Not trying to upset anyone but just being honest!
I do appreciate the great and informing post!

[gatorcane]

Almost as much activity in this thread on the GFS phantom Caribbean-EGOM hurricane as Lee because it is a threat to Florida. Just take a look at the ensembles in which there are zero that show that scenario, all of them recurve over the Central Atlantic. Given we are heading into mid-September looks reasonable:

[MetroMike]

The 12z CMC had a similar system but not as progressed. Maybe it’s sniffing out favorable areas.

[Ianswfl]

The 12z CMC had a similar system but not as progressed. Maybe it’s sniffing out favorable areas.

Saw that too. CMC has something trying to brew in the Western Carribean at the end of the run btw.

[SFLcane]

Almost as much activity in this thread on the GFS phantom Caribbean-EGOM hurricane as Lee because it is a threat to Florida. Just take a look at the ensembles in which there are zero that show that scenario, all of them recurve over the Central Atlantic. Given we are heading into mid-September looks reasonable:

https://i.postimg.cc/FF8437nk/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-fh102-228.gif

Ok one thing is the GEFS ensembles show a totally different solution and you have about one hour to enjoy that happy hour run before it’s gone but to say it looks reasonable for mid September with all do respect is nonsense. There have been plenty of tcs during mid sept that have hit the conus.

[floridasun]

The 12z CMC had a similar system but not as progressed. Maybe it’s sniffing out favorable areas.

Saw that too. CMC has something trying to brew in the Western Carribean at the end of the run btw.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5i1ijbWYAAJsXd?format=jpg&name=small

That look like Wilma

[Category5Kaiju]

The 12z CMC had a similar system but not as progressed. Maybe it’s sniffing out favorable areas.

Saw that too. CMC has something trying to brew in the Western Carribean at the end of the run btw.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5i1ijbWYAAJsXd?format=jpg&name=small

That look like Wilma

Or Ian

[toad strangler]

Saw that too. CMC has something trying to brew in the Western Carribean at the end of the run btw.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F5i1ijbWYAAJsXd?format=jpg&name=small

That look like Wilma

Or Ian

No way, Ian’s eye was nowhere near that size. Definitely looks like Wilma’s sister lol

[SFLcane]

That look like Wilma

Or Ian

No way, Ian’s eye was nowhere near that size. Definitely looks like Wilma’s sister lol

Thankfully it’s gone… wasn’t even supported by GEFS.

[mantis83]

relentless troughs on the 12z gfs and cmc, scooping up anything that tries to come close.....

[Blown Away]

GFS run to run consistency with next hurricane…

[jhpigott]

relentless troughs on the 12z gfs and cmc, scooping up anything that tries to come close.....

Which is great during Cape Verde season for us here in CONUS. Not so much when/if things get cranking in the WCAR during late Sept thru November

[gatorcane]

relentless troughs on the 12z gfs and cmc, scooping up anything that tries to come close.....

Yep but the indicators for this season strongly suggested this is the pattern we would see so it should be of no surprise. One reason why the west coast of Florida experienced a record drought is due to lack of easterlies this summer.

For those looking for a Florida peninsula hit from a significant system (i.e., a major hurricane), it likely would need to come from the south but we should see El Niño shear start kicking in by October so chances could be less than an average. Something sheared is certainly possible.

[MetroMike]

relentless troughs on the 12z gfs and cmc, scooping up anything that tries to come close.....

Yep but the indicators for this season strongly suggested this is the pattern we would see so it should be of no surprise. One reason why the west coast of Florida experienced a record drought is due to lack of easterlies this summer.

For those looking for a Florida peninsula hit from a significant system (i.e., a major hurricane), it likely would need to come from the south but we should see El Niño shear start kicking in by October so chances could be less than an average. Something sheared is certainly possible.

https://i.postimg.cc/6qBdtP3x/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh90-270.gif

El Nino shear in October?
Are you still in Andy Hazelton's camp with that?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1700554863514374204

[gatorcane]

Last few runs of the long-range GFS and GEFS are showing what look like the westerlies ripping across the Gulf and Florida in the wake of Lee. Given the El Niño, I would not be surprised if the westerlies do become more dominant over the Gulf and possibly Caribbean as we head into late September and October:

[Kingarabian]

Last few runs of the long-range GFS and GEFS are showing what look like the westerlies ripping across the Gulf and Florida in the wake of Lee. Given the El Niño, I would not be surprised if the westerlies do become more dominant over the Gulf and possibly Caribbean as we head into late September and October:

https://i.postimg.cc/Jn3r1K6b/gfs-ens-shear-atl-fh168-300.gif

That looks like a favorable shear pattern to me in the GOM. Would want those vectors to be in the Caribbean than that far north in the GOM. Any TC with a decent anti cyclone can easily create a favorable setup.