2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ubuntwo]

The wave expected to cross the Caribbean in late August appears to have a much less favorable environment on models today. On the op GFS, it is shredded by 40kt of shear (induced by an upper level low) as it approaches Florida.

[tiger_deF]

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Those wanting a hurricane just go to Pat o briens. They may be only one you get right now and at least those won’t cause widespread destruction

Depends on your definition of widespread destruction…

[Stratton23]

I have a feeling this is going to be a season in which the models really struggle with genesis due to this problem with the monsoon trough, think we could get a few systems to form despite the globals really not handling the monsoon trough at all, ensembles are definitely having a better handle at this time, all it takes is one, and thats the big take away even in a quiet l stretch like this

[Hammy]

Broken record at this point, but the GFS keeps trying to develop a system in about 90 hours, only to get caught up in the monsoonal flow

[MarioProtVI]

Broken record at this point, but the GFS keeps trying to develop a system in about 90 hours, only to get caught up in the monsoonal flow

https://i.imgur.com/phRNCaW.png
https://i.imgur.com/qB3WOcG.png

Think this might be a case of short-term trends i.e as it gets closer it may adjust itself if the system organizes distinctively.

[Stratton23]

Until the monsoon trough breaks down, the only other way i could see activity getting going is if we get fronts coming down into the gulf/ se us, that could help to spark home grown activity or a CAG event in late september/ early october, those could be other ways that we get more named storms, i think its just a case where the MDR is going to be pretty hostile for the foreseeable future and maybe something has a better shot at developing in the western half of the basin, i could be completely wrong though

[cajungal]

It would be shocking if the season ended with Ernesto

[MarioProtVI]

It would be shocking if the season ended with Ernesto

That’s statistically not gonna happen. I’m sorry but that would like require a super -AMO and super Nino to occur.

[cajungal]

It would be shocking if the season ended with Ernesto

That’s statistically not gonna happen. I’m sorry but that would like require a super -AMO and super Nino to occur.

I know. It was sarcasm

[Ubuntwo]

Until the monsoon trough breaks down, the only other way i could see activity getting going is if we get fronts coming down into the gulf/ se us, that could help to spark home grown activity or a CAG event in late september/ early october, those could be other ways that we get more named storms, i think its just a case where the MDR is going to be pretty hostile for the foreseeable future and maybe something has a better shot at developing in the western half of the basin, i could be completely wrong though

It’s not like the monsoon trough is preventing waves from getting through altogether. I count several entering the western Basin on the GFS, this is consistent across runs. It is however (at least for right now) showing an unfavorable environment there. A trough interaction isn’t necessary for these waves to spin up, but they can provide the upper divergence to speed the process along. There’s a very fine line between trough ventilating vs shearing and models suck at upper air with this lead time. Will need to see that narrow & we have seen waves sneak up on us countless times before.

[MetroMike]

Until the monsoon trough breaks down, the only other way i could see activity getting going is if we get fronts coming down into the gulf/ se us, that could help to spark home grown activity or a CAG event in late september/ early october, those could be other ways that we get more named storms, i think its just a case where the MDR is going to be pretty hostile for the foreseeable future and maybe something has a better shot at developing in the western half of the basin, i could be completely wrong though

We have already had a couple of fronts sneak into Florida this month.
Nothing to see here either. Not sure at this point if anything will spark a descent low instead of these whimpy ass lows that love to troll us.

[Blown Away]

Each year seems to bring some extreme season and it’s a great time to be a weather nut!

[Europa non è lontana]

12z ICON has a small tropical storm forming over the Black Sea and making landfall over the Danube Delta in three days. A couple of ECMWF ensemble members also show a system developing in the Black Sea at the same time. Some models have been intermittently showing development of a subtropical or tropical system in the Black Sea since a few days ago, but never consistently.

Also present on the 18z ICON, but avoids landfall in Romania and instead moves towards Istanbul.

[HurricaneBelle]

I just want to see a storm form to end this pointless back-and-forth.

[Stratton23]

I think we will, eventually something has to form, i have better odds of getting struck by lightning then the basin not producing another storm down the road, we will get some systems to form, just hopefully not right on our doorstep

[Stratton23]

00z ICON really likes a MDR storm, and has a weak area low low pressure in the NW gulf, hmmmm

[Teban54]

0z GFS seems to do a brief spin-up of what looks like the current eastern Atlantic wave in about 3 days, with a more well-defined low and vort than any other run earlier. The system (if it ever becomes a TC) is weak and short-lived, however.

[Stratton23]

This is going to be a pain in the butt until the global models resolve this monsoon trough issue, and these 00z runs confirm these issues even more, otherwise the ensembles are really the only sort of consistent guidance we have right now

[Teban54]

0z GEFS is still loading, but seems more active -- even within 7 days -- with the central MDR wave that people have been watching for a monsoon trough breakdown (same one that ICON is developing, and CMC and ECAI used to show earlier). Below is a trend GIF of 9 runs for exactly 6 days (144 hrs) out from today's 0z run, and only the 6z 8/25 comes close. Today's run shows a slightly higher quantity, notably higher quality, and much greater concentration (certainty) of the wave's location.



Edit: By Day 9, it really looks like a happy hour run now - except it's not. Considering the wave has already left Africa, this run is probably more reliable.



Meanwhile, 0z operational GFS made an attempt to develop a wave in eastern MDR on 9/3 (the one after the ensemble wave), like it had done for 4 consecutive 0z/12z runs earlier. But this run keeps the wave too broad, and thus, doesn't develop it. Still, it's worth noting that GFS seems to be capable of holding waves together coherently now, whereas it was making every wave strung out earlier. And as we saw with Debby, such large waves rarely go away and may development down the road.

[Stratton23]

Interesting question, but let’s say if this wave in the MDR were to develop, would that actually held in aiding to break down the monsoon trough?