TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[baygirl_1]

the outflow is better than yesterday; however, the shear is below the typical 200mb level. Its closer to the 300mb level. Also, while inflow has temporarily increased, there still does not appear to be a surface center.

Also, the convection appears to again be collapsing on the IR, just like yesterday. Convection cannot be sustained when embedded within the SAL

Derek,
Do you foresee it "escaping" the SAL at some point? From this: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/movies/m8g10split/m8g10splitjava5.html it appears the SAL is dissipating in front of it a bit. Of course, it seems, at least from that java movie analysis, the SAL comes and goes a lot.

[WeatherEmperor]

Thats what I was saying yesterday. I bet if a Cat 5 comes baring down on the US we can average several hundred posts per day easily.

<RICKY>

[Tertius]

Might break 100 just on a TD! What's going to happen when the next big one really starts churning. This really is a "record" season in many aspects.

It isn't the intensity of Irene that has caused this lengthy thread, it is more that there has been nothing else to discuss for at least a week now. In addition there has been an effort to keep commentary about a particular system confined to a single thread rather than have each wobble inspire 3 new threads.

[WeatherEmperor]

Might break 100 just on a TD! What's going to happen when the next big one really starts churning. This really is a "record" season in many aspects.

It isn't the intensity of Irene that has caused this lengthy thread, it is more that there has been nothing else to discuss for at least a week now. In addition there has been an effort to keep commentary about a particular system confined to a single thread rather than have each wobble inspire 3 new threads.

yeah come to think of it, there hasnt been much in the way of tropical activity to discuss outside of Irene.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

The convection will either pulse down to near yesterday's nadir or maintain. The structure is more tightly curled today than yesterday. This storm has a fighting heart. This should bode for a possibly stronger storm further west.

Since it has slowed it still has another 24 hours or more to reach the 85* SST's north of the Antilles.

A west wind can be seen in the surface bands on the SW edge...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Why do the models keep shifting North? Is the Bermuda High supposed to weaken??

[Derek Ortt]

models are remaining on their forecast tracks from yesterday. They are farther north because there is an extra day of a NW motion

This should eventually escape the SAL; however, it may not do so until it reaches 25-30N and about 65-70W

[storms in NC]

The convection will either pulse down to near yesterday's nadir or maintain. The structure is more tightly curled today than yesterday. This storm has a fighting heart. This should bode for possibly stronger storm further west.

Since it has slowed it still has another 24 hours or more to reach the 85* SST's north of the Antilles.

A west wind can be seen in the surface bands on the SW edge...

I think she will hold more together than she did yesterday.

[wayoutfront]

edited the post ...

damn it being in a hurry

[Wnghs2007]

not to shabby for a wave

Thats Tropical Storm Fernada in the Eastern Pacific

[wayoutfront]

ooops

[tallywx]

the outflow is better than yesterday; however, the shear is below the typical 200mb level. Its closer to the 300mb level. Also, while inflow has temporarily increased, there still does not appear to be a surface center.

Also, the convection appears to again be collapsing on the IR, just like yesterday. Convection cannot be sustained when embedded within the SAL

I think there's clearly a surface center. Use visible satellite imagery, and take a look at the low-level cloud banding features to the south of the system. You can see with the naked eye the curved band south of the system wrap clouds inward in a NE direction towards the center.

Last time I checked, a W-E surface wind doesn't occur in a tropical wave. Hence, we have a surface circulation.

And I don't give a hoot what QuickScat says about no west wind if visible imagery contradicts it. Check out my post of a technical article from last night, which demonstrates that QuikScat couldn't detect a closed circulation in Hurricane Iris when it had winds of 145 mph.

[rockyman]

Not too shabby for a wave

[Hurricaneman]

Not too shabby for a wave

Definately looking better with time

[Derek Ortt]

that QS from Iris was at 25km. I am using a 12.5km, which would have detected the closed circulation for Iris.

If this new QS says no circ, chances are it has not yet reformed. Visible can be very deceptive in that you often see clouds at the 850mb level and not at the surface. No doubt there is an MLC, but probably not yet a true closed surface circ, but instead a broad surface low

[Ivanhater]

that QS from Iris was at 25km. I am using a 12.5km, which would have detected the closed circulation for Iris.

If this new QS says no circ, chances are it has not yet reformed. Visible can be very deceptive in that you often see clouds at the 850mb level and not at the surface. No doubt there is an MLC, but probably not yet a true closed surface circ, but instead a broad surface low

then it has gotten better organized , as you said earlier it hasnt

[Derek Ortt]

at the surface, it still has not had the chance to organize.

Once this breaks out of the SAL in a couple of days, then we may very well see quick development. Be patient

[du1st]

what is SAL.

[mvtrucking]

Here is a interesting shot: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks almost due west looking at this.

[WeatherEmperor]

at the surface, it still has not had the chance to organize.

Once this breaks out of the SAL in a couple of days, then we may very well see quick development. Be patient

very well said Derek.

<RICKY>