AnnularCane wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:The 0zGFS show a wave coming off of Africa in 5 days and develops in the Bahamas in 14 days. If I were going to guess it might develop before that due to better moisture heading into the Atlantic
So what they're showing is NOT the current yellow X but something else?
The current wave that was being analyzed off of the coast of Africa by the NHC can be (vaguely) tracked using the 850mb vort charts, and is nearing the Leeward islands by day 4/5. Another tropical wave will emerge off the African coast at the same timeframe, I've highlighted these two waves below at forecast hour 102:
Additionally, we can see on the satellite imagery loop of Africa (
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... _loop.html), we potentially may have a few waves coming up that drop some in latitude when they emerge off the coast. Trend has been for the vorticity to build on the northern flank of these AEWs though, which remains an unsuitable environment:
These next two waves may be what I call 'sacrifical waves', helping to reduce the subsidence for a a disturbance that can sneak in at a more southern latitude and develop. You can see the wave mentioned above has essentially eaten away at some of the SAL plume, and conversely, combined with the lower SSTA values, has stripped the TW completely of convection:
One other issue is the current position and tilt of the Bermuda-Azores High. The current configuration has these AEWs racing across the Atlantic when they emerge, most moving in excess of 20+ mph. That certainly is an inhibiting factor for development. You can see in the quick snapshot posted below that the GFS is forecasting for the position to move more north in latitude. That should also allow these waves to slow down a bit and give them a better shot at consolidation:
The 12Z EPS has only modest support for this with only about 7 of the 51 members having a TC and 2 or so becoming a H.
