2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Teban54]

0z NASA / GMAO....
AEW wave goes NW
Bahama system into Ga. /SC @ 240Hr

[url]https://i.ibb.co/1n0fHfq/Animatione.gif [/url]

Hey, now the GFS at least has a little more peer support for the GA storm!

[Spacecoast]

0z NASA / GMAO....
AEW wave goes NW
Bahama system into Ga. /SC @ 240Hr

[url]https://i.ibb.co/1n0fHfq/Animatione.gif [/url]

Hey, now the GFS at least has a little more peer support for the GA storm!

Looks to be a different system.
5 days earlier than GFS,
closer to what 0z CMC shows @ 168hr

[Stormybajan]

0z NASA / GMAO....
AEW wave goes NW
some kind of activity into Ga. /SC @ 240Hr?

[url]https://i.ibb.co/1n0fHfq/Animatione.gif [/url]

Looks like it also shows the signal for the low rider system in the MDR in 10 days..so euro, and cmc are not alone here. Time to watch if the GFS will jump on in the next 4 days or so

[toad strangler]

Sometimes it feels like we are the Titanic watch guard looking for icebergs in the fog through binoculars.

[sma10]

OK, so definitely starting to believe that the little nothing that is currently spinning around 15n 50w is going to become a something early next week approaching the Bahamas

[aspen]

ICON is now in support of the Bahamas/GA/Carolinas system, and has a 1000mb near the SC/NC border landfall next Friday. I’m gonna have to watch this very closely because some family members went down for vacation in SC.

The ICON also shows one of the later MDR disturbances. I think it might be the low-rider.

[Teban54]

I know SST is not the only factor that leads to development, but right now SST and OHC near the Bahamas are among the highest in the entire basin:

[gatorcane]

0z NASA / GMAO....
AEW wave goes NW
Bahama system into Ga. /SC @ 240Hr

[url]https://i.ibb.co/1n0fHfq/Animatione.gif [/url]

Hey, now the GFS at least has a little more peer support for the GA storm!

When we are having to look at the long-range NASA and ICON models for CONUS threats, that tells me things are looking good for the CONUS at the moment. Also latest GFS shows really nothing of concern. I do see a large eastern CONUS trough in the long-range which looks to help turn the tiny near naked swirl between the Lesser Antilles and Africa northward east of the Bahamas.

[AutoPenalti]

0z NASA / GMAO....
AEW wave goes NW
Bahama system into Ga. /SC @ 240Hr

[url]https://i.ibb.co/1n0fHfq/Animatione.gif [/url]

Hey, now the GFS at least has a little more peer support for the GA storm!

When we are having to look at the long-range NASA and ICON models for CONUS threats, that tells me things are looking good for the CONUS at the moment. Also latest GFS shows really nothing of concern. I do see a large eastern CONUS trough in the long-range which looks to help turn the tiny near naked swirl between the Lesser Antilles and Africa northward east of the Bahamas.

Yeah no. I don't believe that for a second.

[LarryWx]

Regarding potential threats to FL and the SE US, the 12Z GEFS has nothing too noteworthy through day 10 though some members weakly hint at something in the area in about a week.

[SFLcane]

Regarding potential threats to FL and the SE US, the 12Z GEFS has nothing too noteworthy through day 10 though some members weakly hint at something in the area in about a week.

It’s derived from the gfs so it’s never going to.

[aspen]

Both of the Euro’s late-run MDR systems, including the low-rider, appear on the 12z CMC.

[weeniepatrol]

[aspen]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.imgur.com/lj7yyZk.gif

Wow, the Euro is stronger with…well, pretty much everything. Even the Carolinas system is better defined.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro is showing a possible Hurricane heading for the Caribbean from the MDR . . .

[Category5Kaiju]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.imgur.com/lj7yyZk.gif

Oh wow, it even becomes a bona fide TC by September 15. Now to be honest, this new Euro run is more credible than the GFS, which still shows nada. September is going to be active imho. Plain and simple.

[IcyTundra]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.imgur.com/lj7yyZk.gif

Yikes I don't like all of that strong ridging over the Atlantic that would block that thing from recurving anytime soon.

[cycloneye]

Strong mid level ridge.

[IcyTundra]

12z Euro is showing a possible Hurricane heading for the Caribbean from the MDR . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_9.png

If the ridging is as strong as the Euro suggests I think this could potentially be the big one for this season (no offense to Ida).

[Category5Kaiju]

12z Euro is showing a possible Hurricane heading for the Caribbean from the MDR . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_9.png

If the ridging is as strong as the Euro suggests I think this could potentially be the big one for this season (no offense to Ida).

It'll be passing through Hebert Box 1, which I would think would mean that that storm's thread will likely be flooded with Florida posters. Oh yeah, and it'll satisfy those thrill-seeking trackers who have wanted to see a powerful MDR born, long-track hurricane near land.