2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1544750695286554626

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1544762543654473728

[SFLcane]

Great 500 mb height anomaly steering thread by Yaakov Cantor on twitter. Encourage all to take a look

@yconsor

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1544762543654473728?s=20&t=BLQ9dIui2rt6Gqb4sE4nlw

Yeah, typically speaking, it seems like September storms like Irma, Florence, and Georges that are Cape Verde storms and go on to do a lot of damage in the CONUS especially aren't all that common. Climatologically speaking, seem to me that August that typically features a higher risk of Cape Verde systems actually tracking and hitting land than September.

Now of course, I generally wouldn't conclude that this means we're off the hook for September, because steering patterns are very dynamic, and in a given year one would expect some storms to go out to sea and others to hit land. Years like 2010 that are very active but also relatively tame for land aren't exactly the norm

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1544768156752912384

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1544768156752912384

The analog year search is a noble endeavor given the fact that no one season is truly the same. Overall activity can be somewhat confidently forecasted based upon them. I just don’t think they mean a hill of beans when it comes to storm tracks.

[skyline385]

2013 memes are never gonna get old

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1544806985140404224

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1544849613810720768




Just look at how many reached major hurricane strength, let alone Category 4 status or higher.

[skyline385]

Latest EPS seems to be suggesting potential for some activity around mid July now with rising air over Indian Ocean and Africa but no suppressed phase over the NATL, however still nothing popping up on the members.

[aspen]

Latest EPS seems to be suggesting potential for some activity around mid July now with rising air over Indian Ocean and Africa but no suppressed phase over the NATL, however still nothing popping up on the members.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220707/e431b73be8bdd771882b5fbd2329328f.jpg

That’s still over 300 hours out. The ensembles probably won’t begin to pick up on any less suppressed or possibly enhanced phase for another several days

[SFLcane]

Buckle up!!

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1545038512193282049

[SFLcane]

Wxman57 your call of threats to the NE gulf, Florida , and the caribbean are valid it appears on the NMME.

[underthwx]

Buckle up!!

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1545038512193282049?s=20&t=0Pq-e-e0U1yGV-vUwo8bNw

And yet, all is quiet for now. I was looking at the Atlantic satellite, there's a wave almost in the central Atlantic, is there anything you foresee happening with it?

[SFLcane]

Buckle up!!

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1545038512193282049?s=20&t=0Pq-e-e0U1yGV-vUwo8bNw

And yet, all is quiet for now. I was looking at the Atlantic satellite, there's a wave almost in the central Atlantic, is there anything you foresee happening with it?

No development is highly unlikely most of july maybe end of the month.

[cycloneye]

He replied to me. Yikes.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1545039273388175361

[Category5Kaiju]

Imho, this seems to be looking like perhaps among the most active Caribbean years we've had in recent times. Maybe more quality, longer-lived major hurricanes there compared to a year like 2020? Only time will tell, but I personally wouldn't be shocked to see something like that happen, let alone a cruiser.

[hurricane2025]

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1545048303108124673

[SoupBone]

Wxman57 your call of threats to the NE gulf, Florida , and the caribbean are valid it appears on the NMME.

https://i.postimg.cc/cHwx5QcV/nmme.png

I think his thoughts were based on the persistent and downright hellish death ridge that has been over us in Texas for months now. Of course, patterns can change, but it has definitely been in place for at least two months now, with little signs of budging.

[SFLcane]

Luis....

Caribbean-Florida connection? The entire Florida peninsula is wet on this new NMME .

[Cpv17]

Wxman57 your call of threats to the NE gulf, Florida , and the caribbean are valid it appears on the NMME.

https://i.postimg.cc/cHwx5QcV/nmme.png

I think his thoughts were based on the persistent and downright hellish death ridge that has been over us in Texas for months now. Of course, patterns can change, but it has definitely been in place for at least two months now, with little signs of budging.

The Euro forecast was showing a favorable look for the NW Gulf a couple days ago for tc activity but the NMME is showing a more favorable look towards the eastern Gulf it appears to me.