TD 10...Back Again

#1521 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:33 pm

well, we know he can OVER hype stuff, but for now you have to take it with a grain of salt. I mean i just looked the the latest run of the GEM and it shows a cane headed for galveston...So, we DON'T know what if anything will come of this...just have to watch

hicksta · #1522 Postby **hicksta** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:36 pm

link to that delta

#1523 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:36 pm

hicksta wrote:link to that delta

I think its a couple pages back....i will try and find it

#1524 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:40 pm

deltadog03 wrote:
hicksta wrote:link to that delta

I think its a couple pages back....i will try and find it

lol have fun finding it

<RICKY>

#1525 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:45 pm

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_144.jpg

LOL here ya go hicksta!!!

#1526 Postby **sponger** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 4:49 pm

I am amazed by the little blob the could. I won't believe it until I see it but all of you who wanted to kell this thread could be eating crow by this time tomorrow. If I lived on the gulf coast. I would be watching this closely.

wxwatcher91 · #1527 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:48 pm

what interests me is that considering how fast Jose blew up in the BOC, how fast do you think a tropical wave could become a cat 5 if traveling for days in the GOM... the GOM is waiting to bomb something...

#1528 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:22 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (AL102005) ON 20050823 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050823 0000 050823 1200 050824 0000 050824 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.3N 73.5W 21.8N 75.1W 22.4N 76.8W 23.0N 78.7W
BAMM 21.3N 73.5W 21.9N 75.2W 22.6N 76.9W 23.2N 78.6W
A98E 21.3N 73.5W 21.7N 74.7W 22.3N 76.1W 23.3N 77.9W
LBAR 21.3N 73.5W 21.9N 75.1W 23.1N 76.8W 24.5N 78.6W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050825 0000 050826 0000 050827 0000 050828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.6N 80.7W 24.3N 84.1W 24.1N 87.2W 23.7N 89.9W
BAMM 23.9N 80.3W 24.5N 83.1W 24.2N 85.5W 23.8N 87.6W
A98E 24.5N 80.2W 25.3N 85.8W 25.4N 90.0W 23.6N 91.5W
LBAR 25.9N 80.0W 27.5N 80.8W 28.8N 79.6W 30.7N 79.6W
SHIP 49KTS 63KTS 73KTS 78KTS
DSHP 49KTS 63KTS 73KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.3N LONCUR = 73.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 72.3W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 20.7N LONM24 = 70.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Well since all the agencies have it as ten and not twelve I am posting the 00:00z models in this thread.

#1529 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:28 pm

Something there, inside that disturbance, at least a little piece, once was TD 10. Thereafter, in honor of what remains of the depression, lets call it TD 10 when it redevelops in the next few days, if it gets a chance to do so.

#1530 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:28 pm

00:00z Model graphic.

Derek Ortt · #1531 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:31 pm

does not look like advisories are bieng reissued on the system quite yet. However, a decision has been made to keep the system as TD 10, which is the correct decesion as this feature can clearly be traced back to TD 10, it is just a very long center reformation. Remember, the eye of Jeanne that hit FL was not the same center/eye that devastated Haiti

Rainband · #1532 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:33 pm

Models are shifting right.

#1533 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:34 pm

Dearest mods, how about locking this 77 page MONSTER and starting a fresh new one?

#1534 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:35 pm

well, models are pretty close to the globals...I have learned to trust the globals this close to the US...but, anyway, we will really have to watch this if it continues to progress

Lifesgud2 · #1535 Postby **Lifesgud2** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:37 pm

Rainband,

What is the bottom line here? I have been tracking this thing for 2 weeks almost. Is this thing for real, or just a wave? Please advise...

#1536 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:38 pm

Just for giggles, here is the 1947 Hurricane:

jkt21787 · #1537 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:41 pm

jschlitz wrote:Just for giggles, here is the 1947 Hurricane:

Really? I thought that was the forecast for TD 10! At least according to JB... :lol:

#1538 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:44 pm

Well, be careful this early, or you might be eating Dixiebreeze's crow buffet

Seriuosly though, I read JB's column and he said "One of the storms I am now looking at is the 1947 New Orleans storm."

I'd hardly call that a forecast at this point...

#1539 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:46 pm

see that is the scary part...he WILL be RIGHT on one of these new orleans landfalls...**not saying that this will be it**

jkt21787 · #1540 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 8:48 pm

jschlitz wrote:Well, be careful this early, or you might be eating Dixiebreeze's crow buffet

Seriuosly though, I read JB's column and he said "One of the storms I am now looking at is the 1947 New Orleans storm."

I'd hardly call that a forecast at this point...

I know, just having a little fun. The models don't point to N.O. really at this time, though I never trust them early in the game.

We'll see

TD 10...Back Again

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