2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hammy]

When's the last time the GFS actually showed a tropical storm out in the medium to long range? And I'm not counting the CAG-based storms it always seems to invent.

[CyclonicFury]

When's the last time the GFS actually showed a tropical storm out in the medium to long range? And I'm not counting the CAG-based storms it always seems to invent.

The GFS seems completely unable to develop a storm from a tropical wave that has not yet exited Africa. I'm not sure why.

[gatorcane]

I am not liking this 500MB look by the GFS approaching the climatological peak, but it is in the super long-range:

[chaser1]

I am not looking this 500MB look by the GFS approaching the climatological peak, but it is in the super long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/y8TmV1zm/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-53.png

Seriously. Imagine the impact if THAT pattern verifies and was largely in place for several weeks in an over-active (and West based) season that we've seen thus far?

[Hurricane Mike]

Crazy strong ridge!

[EquusStorm]

Hoo boy that's a scary pattern, hopefully we don't catch up on the relative lack of Caribbean cruisers in recent years all at once...

[LarryWx]

I am not looking this 500MB look by the GFS approaching the climatological peak, but it is in the super long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/y8TmV1zm/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-53.png

That's why that wave approaching the African coast and developing on many ensemble members is concerning.

[SFLcane]

I am not looking this 500MB look by the GFS approaching the climatological peak, but it is in the super long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/y8TmV1zm/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-53.png

That's why that wave approaching the African coast and developing on many ensemble members is concerning.

Sure thing, but something has to develop first in order to take advantage.

[toad strangler]

I am not looking this 500MB look by the GFS approaching the climatological peak, but it is in the super long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/y8TmV1zm/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-53.png

That's why that wave approaching the African coast and developing on many ensemble members is concerning.

Sure thing, but something has to develop first in order to take advantage.

The GFS sends two consecutive AEW's all the way across the basin into the Bahamas with absolutely no development at peak season

[TheStormExpert]

I am not looking this 500MB look by the GFS approaching the climatological peak, but it is in the super long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/y8TmV1zm/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-53.png

A ridge that strong would send anything west into Central America or Mexico, maybe southern Texas. Weird seeing a ridge on the GFS 300+ hrs. out as opposed to a trough.

[Hammy]

GFS finally showing something in the MDR. Given it's tendency this year (and if it persists on the runs) could be a sign of a multiple storm outbreak in September--consistent with what the longer range models have been showing.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS finally showing something in the MDR. Given it's tendency this year (and if it persists on the runs) could be a sign of a multiple storm outbreak in September--consistent with what the longer range models have been showing.

https://i.imgur.com/OAFJMis.png

It also shows development of the wave about to emerge west Africa tomorrow in 276hrs. in the Bay of Campeche.

[Hammy]

GFS finally showing something in the MDR. Given it's tendency this year (and if it persists on the runs) could be a sign of a multiple storm outbreak in September--consistent with what the longer range models have been showing.

https://i.imgur.com/OAFJMis.png

It also shows development of the wave about to emerge west Africa tomorrow in 276hrs. in the Bay of Campeche.

Saved for posterity, in case it stops for several runs.

[SFLcane]

GFS has a major hurricane again this run near Bermuda.

[St0rmTh0r]

GFS has a major hurricane again this run near Bermuda.

If GFS is developing a major after all the epic fails this year its definitely time to pay attention

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298709187170459651

[Hammy]

GFS back to pretending it's 2013.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS back to pretending it's 2013.

i will always think of this image every time i check the gfs for TC genesis for at least the remainder of 2020.

[Hammy]

GFS back to pretending it's 2013.

i will always think of this image every time i check the gfs for TC genesis for at least the remainder of 2020.

https://i.postimg.cc/fbzS3Qjx/gfs-z850-vort-atl-26.png

Euro similarly--a mere six days out and nothing.

[SFLcane]

GFS back to pretending it's 2013.

i will always think of this image every time i check the gfs for TC genesis for at least the remainder of 2020.

https://i.postimg.cc/fbzS3Qjx/gfs-z850-vort-atl-26.png

Euro similarly--a mere six days out and nothing.

https://i.imgur.com/99QrbSM.png

Try again..