2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

06z GFS develops a TC in the MDR in roughly 150 hours, and keeps it around long enough for it to become a major hurricane in the super long range.

[SFLcane]

Not much consistency at all In the models.

[tiger_deF]

All I can say is I hope no one is buying the idea of a serious lull coming up

[SFLcane]

All I can say is I hope no one is buying the idea of a serious lull coming up

Nothing in the modeling suggests a tc outbreak is looming. EPS is meh

[toad strangler]

All I can say is I hope no one is buying the idea of a serious lull coming up

Nothing in the modeling suggests a tc outbreak is looming. EPS is meh

Indeed but NHC still has a lemon out there in the 5 day

[sma10]

All I can say is I hope no one is buying the idea of a serious lull coming up

Nothing in the modeling suggests a tc outbreak is looming. EPS is meh

Indeed but NHC still has a lemon out there in the 5 day

ICON, CMC and UKMet all develop the lemon, and they have been the only models that have detected genesis properly this season. All 3 show Caribbean cruiser

[Cpv17]

All I can say is I hope no one is buying the idea of a serious lull coming up

Nothing in the modeling suggests a tc outbreak is looming. EPS is meh

Really? Have you not learned yet that this year the Euro and GFS have both failed detecting genesis?

[St0rmTh0r]

What's going on down in the Caribbean? There has been a lot of thunderstorms blowing up down there the last few days. Any models hinting at development?

[EquusStorm]

Even if globals are right, a transition to quality over quantity with basin conditions like this ain't good

[TheStormExpert]

All I can say is I hope no one is buying the idea of a serious lull coming up

Nothing in the modeling suggests a tc outbreak is looming. EPS is meh

The same EPS that was meh with Laura several days before landfall? The time of year favors a ramp up in TC activity regardless of what these flipping models show, they've been little to no help!

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont want to start anything...but the ICON has what appears to be a cat1/2 hurricane hitting Jamaica and moving WNW.......




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[sma10]

I dont want to start anything...but the ICON has what appears to be a cat1/2 hurricane hitting Jamaica and moving WNW.......

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200827/f942fce87654e89bad0ee1f4258917f8.jpg


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Yes - it's been spinning up that interesting area near 10N 45W the past several runs. The CMC and UK also likes this area

[WeatherEmperor]

The new 12z UKMET has something similar to the ICON in the Caribbean as well


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.0N 61.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2020 14.4N 63.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.09.2020 15.1N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2020 15.8N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2020 16.3N 71.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2020 17.0N 74.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


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[StPeteMike]

What's going on down in the Caribbean? There has been a lot of thunderstorms blowing up down there the last few days. Any models hinting at development?

There were a few weak ENS signals of possible development there, nothing I think even got to TS though.

[sma10]

The new 12z UKMET has something similar to the ICON in the Caribbean as well


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.0N 61.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.08.2020 14.4N 63.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.09.2020 15.1N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2020 15.8N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2020 16.3N 71.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2020 17.0N 74.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


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Yup. ICON, UK and CMC all show similar development in same basic area at 144hrs. So, for what seems the hundredth time this season ... "wonder when the Euro and GFS will catch up"?

[SFLcane]

Hmmm....

[cjrciadt]

Hmmm....

https://i.imgur.com/afOwlrS.gif

Yup It is peak season though.

[TheStormExpert]

Hmmm....

https://i.imgur.com/afOwlrS.gif

The long-range 12z GFS has a trough swing into the upper Midwest which erodes the Bermuda High but it’s long range well over 300hrs. out.

[Fancy1001]

Fear Nana.

[TallahasseeMan]

The trend on the recent Euro runs has been for more development.


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