2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[cycloneye]

Every year is the same. SAL will subside once August rolls in.

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1813687167212003819

[Teban54]

They flew last weekend east of the islands and found this.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1813603168095498287

Also notice how the Canary Current is back, even though it may not look as "classic" as it did earlier in spring.

[cycloneye]

This will stop any atempt to post a season cancel one.

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1813926948491641180

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1813950107479658702

[Deshaunrob17]

Read the Sahara desert dust is going to tap down on hurricane development. Fascinating stuff. So no one took the dust into account when predicting the season?

Also, in 2020 I learnt that large dust outbreaks correlate with stronger tropical waves.
Another thing too, if is one thing I learnt from years like 2017, 2018, 2019 is that things in the tropics change in a hurry . It can go from dead to very busy easily. 2018 was the most impressive change in my opinion.
Saharan dust occurs every single season. Even years like 2005 had dust outbreaks. The largest dust outbreak ever actually happened in Summer 2020. That year turned out to be hyperactive with seven major hurricanes.

Dust always rapidly becomes less of an issue through August. This absolutely is accounted for in the seasonal forecasts

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1814023207529132489

[AnnularCane]

Is it still the calm before the storm when we've already had a storm?

[Frank P]

Is it still the calm before the storm when we've already had a storm?

If not for Beryl everybody would be losing their minds right about now... the season cancelled posts would be running amuck. hehe

[aspen]

Is it still the calm before the storm when we've already had a storm?

If not for Beryl everybody would be losing their minds right about now... the season cancelled posts would be running amuck. hehe

Beryl put us so far ahead of average in terms of hurricane/MH hours and ACE. If it ended up performing similar to Elsa ‘21 like I originally thought it would, season cancel posts would indeed be rampant. Basically a repeat of 2021’s early season prior to Fred.

[cycloneye]

The switch will be flipped.

 https://x.com/crownweather/status/1814280373247099370

[SFLcane]

@AndyHazelton sounds the alarm! Highly respect this guys insights well respected sourse. Buckle up!



 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1814322184606658630

[LarryWx]

Whereas season to date ACE is still quite strong due to Beryl, the forecasts with (near) record #s of NS are increasingly looking dicey regarding coming in close. The latest Euro weeklies, which obviously could be off, have well BN Atlantic activity for the next 3 weeks with NN not starting til the week 8/11-18! So, there could very well be just 3 NS through Aug 11.

Highest # of NS 8/11+:
21: 2020, 05
16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50
15: 2023, 1933

Opinions? This isn’t at all a season cancel post but rather a record #NS possible cancel post.

[ScottNAtlanta]

@AndyHazelton sounds the alarm! Highly respect this guys insights well respected sourse. Buckle up!

https://i.postimg.cc/hv1LxBLz/alram.gif

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1814322184606658630

...and he is often very conservative in his posts...so when he raises concerns you should take notice!

[ScottNAtlanta]

According to Mark's video today...we are all part of the HTU (Hurricane Track Universe)

[chaser1]

Whereas season to date ACE is still quite strong due to Beryl, the forecasts with (near) record #s of NS are increasingly looking dicey regarding coming in close. The latest Euro weeklies, which obviously could be off, have well BN Atlantic activity for the next 3 weeks with NN not starting til the week 8/11-18! So, there could very well be just 3 NS through Aug 11.

Highest # of NS 8/11+:
21: 2020, 05
16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50
15: 2023, 1933

Opinions? This isn’t at all a season cancel post but rather a record #NS possible cancel post.

Two named storms between July 26 - Aug. 11 would continue to preserve some of those season record forecasts

Larry, you make a good point and I normally wouldn't be apt to be so bullish to bet against the EURO weeklies during most years. Furthermore I recognize the broad SAL conditions that still prevail. On top of that, there's no current evidence by the GFS "storm machine" of any projected development either. Having said all that, what little this season has already tipped its hand to is 1) W. Atlantic cyclogenesis and storm tracks, and 2) low latitude development. SAL will wane however, and the Southern Caribean has been exposed to minimal SAL impact. I am seeing hints of SW Caribbean surface pressures beginning to lower in the models indicative of the MJO progression from EPAC to C. America around end of month. Here (75W-85W) is where I would anticipate the next TD to develop and become a short lived TS before moving over C America by the first few days of August. Beyond that, I expect SAL to be further dispersed with additional TW development a bit further east in the Carribbean, during increasingly unstable atmospheric conditions enhanced by the MJO. I'd be willing to bet that we'll begin seeing a fairly significant increase of model ensemble pinging for the Caribbean during the next 4-7 days.

What'll come after that is when I believe the Atlantic will turn into "Scary-town"

[IcyTundra]

Whereas season to date ACE is still quite strong due to Beryl, the forecasts with (near) record #s of NS are increasingly looking dicey regarding coming in close. The latest Euro weeklies, which obviously could be off, have well BN Atlantic activity for the next 3 weeks with NN not starting til the week 8/11-18! So, there could very well be just 3 NS through Aug 11.

Highest # of NS 8/11+:
21: 2020, 05
16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50
15: 2023, 1933

Opinions? This isn’t at all a season cancel post but rather a record #NS possible cancel post.

I think this season is going to be more quality over quantity like 2004 and 2017. I think we will see above average activity in the Caribbean during November to somewhat make up for the quiet period right now but not enough to get to the 25 NS forecast from CSU.

[weeniepatrol]

Whereas season to date ACE is still quite strong due to Beryl, the forecasts with (near) record #s of NS are increasingly looking dicey regarding coming in close. The latest Euro weeklies, which obviously could be off, have well BN Atlantic activity for the next 3 weeks with NN not starting til the week 8/11-18! So, there could very well be just 3 NS through Aug 11.

Highest # of NS 8/11+:
21: 2020, 05
16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50
15: 2023, 1933

Opinions? This isn’t at all a season cancel post but rather a record #NS possible cancel post.

Yeah. I've long held the opinion that this season won't be a slop fiesta like 2005, 2020 with relatively weak MDR activity. I think it'll be a parade of Beryls. Relentless and long-tracking Cabo Verde hurricanes like 2004 or 2017

The NOAA forecast range of 17-25 storms looks great.

[LarryWx]

Whereas season to date ACE is still quite strong due to Beryl, the forecasts with (near) record #s of NS are increasingly looking dicey regarding coming in close. The latest Euro weeklies, which obviously could be off, have well BN Atlantic activity for the next 3 weeks with NN not starting til the week 8/11-18! So, there could very well be just 3 NS through Aug 11.

Highest # of NS 8/11+:
21: 2020, 05
16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50
15: 2023, 1933

Opinions? This isn’t at all a season cancel post but rather a record #NS possible cancel post.

Yeah. I've long held the opinion that this season won't be a slop fiesta like 2005, 2020 with relatively weak MDR activity. I think it'll be a parade of Beryls. Relentless and long-tracking Cabo Verde hurricanes like 2004 or 2017

The NOAA forecast range of 17-25 storms looks great.

NOAA’s very wide ranges make it easier to do well. That’s especially the case with their 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 MH.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's also quite telling that we're getting absolutely no weak spinups in the subtropics. Every single storm that has formed originated from a tropical wave and occurred in the deep tropics. Kind of wondering at this point if we see a high-10s or lower-20s for NS totals but over 200 ACE and 6-7 or so major hurricanes by the time the season ends.

This season has already behaved very unlike other recent seasons and looks to do so for the forseeable future.

[weeniepatrol]

Whereas season to date ACE is still quite strong due to Beryl, the forecasts with (near) record #s of NS are increasingly looking dicey regarding coming in close. The latest Euro weeklies, which obviously could be off, have well BN Atlantic activity for the next 3 weeks with NN not starting til the week 8/11-18! So, there could very well be just 3 NS through Aug 11.

Highest # of NS 8/11+:
21: 2020, 05
16: 2021, 19, 10, 1969, 50
15: 2023, 1933

Opinions? This isn’t at all a season cancel post but rather a record #NS possible cancel post.

Yeah. I've long held the opinion that this season won't be a slop fiesta like 2005, 2020 with relatively weak MDR activity. I think it'll be a parade of Beryls. Relentless and long-tracking Cabo Verde hurricanes like 2004 or 2017

The NOAA forecast range of 17-25 storms looks great.

NOAA’s very wide ranges make it easier to do well. That’s especially the case with their 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 MH.

If you didn't know (you probably do lol), the NOAA ranges represent their 70% confidence interval:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... cane.shtml

The updated 2024 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2024 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1st through November 30th:
17-25 Named Storms
8-13 Hurricanes
4-7 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 150%-245% of the median