2015 Global model runs discussion

CourierPR · #1581 Postby **CourierPR** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:53 pm

"end game storm for Hurricane season on ECMWF for second run in a row! phase 2 MJO support IMO"

The above was a morning tweet by Meteorologist Joe Bastardi. It doesn't appear to be a phantom to him.

#1582 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:57 pm

CourierPR wrote:"end game storm for Hurricane season on ECMWF for second run in a row! phase 2 MJO support IMO"

The above was a morning tweet by Meteorologist Joe Bastardi. It doesn't appear to be a phantom to him.

one should remember his CMC-like bullish bias

#1583 Postby **Alyono** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 12:00 am

MU still develops this. Just takes longer as it has more land interaction

#1584 Postby **Alyono** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 12:01 am

what is becoming clear though is a major flood threat for Central America. As I said, a Stan-like flood is not out of the question as we will have a monsoonal gyre over the area for several days

CourierPR · #1585 Postby **CourierPR** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 12:02 am

Alyono wrote:
CourierPR wrote:"end game storm for Hurricane season on ECMWF for second run in a row! phase 2 MJO support IMO"

The above was a morning tweet by Meteorologist Joe Bastardi. It doesn't appear to be a phantom to him.

one should remember his CMC-like bullish bias

You make a good point. However, he is very good at pattern recognition.

#1586 Postby **LarryWx** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 12:05 am

0Z CMC still pretty bullish for a W. Caribbean genesis followed by crossing some of the Yucatan followed by a move toward S FL with my guess of a projected closest passage to there late 10/21...i.e., not much little slippage unlike the case for MU.

Upon further review, it is moving very slowly as of late 10/20 probably waiting for a trough to get it going NE.

Anyone staying up for the King?

#1587 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 12:11 am

Alyono wrote:MU still develops this. Just takes longer as it has more land interaction

This is exactly what I have been saying all along. The land interaction will have huge implications where and if this can develop into a serious cyclone

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

blp · #1588 Postby **blp** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 12:26 am

Yeah I keep thinking this will get pulled up at some point if not the first trough then the second. Looks like another trough will need to pull this out. That might be why it is pulling back the timeframe.

Certainly does not appear like a phantom with all the models showing something.

#1589 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 12:51 am

Euro starting very soon

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

#1590 Postby **LarryWx** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 1:40 am

0Z Euro: no TC in EPAC hour 180 unlike 12Z Euro hour 192 but WC looks similar to hour 192 of 12Z Euro.

Edit: I bet there won't be a Bay of Campeche low on this run unlike the 12Z. Let's see.

Zzzzzz, there's not much of anything anywhere. No TC genesis. Phantom chances increasing slightly more in my mind but there's still a good while to go before a confident call will be able to be made one way or the other most likely. Night night!

Hammy · #1591 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 2:37 am

Is whatever happens here going to originate from that surge that's moving through the Caribbean?

#1592 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 6:37 am

06Z GFS operational is less enthusiastic, though still develops something in the long-range. The GEFS continues to show many ensemble members developing something in the NW Caribbean. The GEM and NAVGEM are the most bullish sending a bonafied TC through the Yucatan channel. The consensus of those models is never good though. I've been burned pretty much every time I have followed that consensus with no other model support :lol:

#1593 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 6:38 am

Doubt anything will come out of the Caribbean over the next few days by the way the Euro and GFS have trending away from development in their medium range forecast during their last few runs.

#1594 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 6:55 am

Shear-wise, the SW and Western Caribbean are looking quite favorable:

Weatherwatcher98 · #1595 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:05 am

As Hammy Stated, there is a "surge" of moisture down there, but I think it may move into the EPAC.

#1596 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:15 am

The GFS ensembles are all around South Florida and the Bahamas in the long-range:

boca · #1597 Postby **boca** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:16 am

I think the models can't be trusted beyond 5 days and since the Euro and GFS is backing away from development tells me that conditions aren't there for development.The 2015 season was a lot more interesting than the last few years,but I think we are just about over with 2015

Weatherwatcher98 · #1598 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:27 am

boca wrote:I think the models can't be trusted beyond 5 days and since the Euro and GFS is backing away from development tells me that conditions aren't there for development.The 2015 season was a lot more interesting than the last few years,but I think we are just about over with 2015

I tend to agree with you. Only Caveat being the MJO pulse.

boca · #1599 Postby **boca** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 7:35 am

When is the MJO pulse projected to get to our side of the world?

#1600 Postby **LarryWx** » Sun Oct 11, 2015 8:34 am

gatorcane wrote:The GFS ensembles are all around South Florida and the Bahamas in the long-range:

Indeed, that is showing about half the members there then. However, the big red flag IMO is that the date on that map is 10/24, which is about three days later than the 10/21 the model
consensus had been targeting to be in the vicinity of S FL.

Also, the 6Z GFS para ensemble is much less enthusiastic for that area.