TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #1581 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:44 pm

If theres 34 knot surface reports/2.5 t numbers. Why is that still saying a tropical depression. Unless the LLC is not well defined. Even so if it doe's have those winds it doe's not really matter how defined the LLC is. Then it would be a tropical wave.

jrod · #1582 Postby **jrod** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:45 pm

It dosn't matter...it depends on the ridge building in upstream...or i should say its already there...

I can see it.

I'm going to wait and see how the weather evolves tommorow. I am not convinced Florida is safe just yet.

WindRunner · #1583 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:45 pm

Well, there they are, half-hour late.

rockyman · #1584 Postby **rockyman** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:45 pm

Here's the map when it updates:

sma10 · #1585 Postby **sma10** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:46 pm

gkrangers wrote:Pretty big shift to the right.

Also note that Irene is still designated as Depression.

At this point you really have to wonder if the threat to Florida hasn't diminished significantly. Can we really believe that every single model can be off by hundreds of miles? I suppose it's possible but the focus in terms of the U.S. coast has to be the Carolinas now.

#1586 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:46 pm

how are they shifting right, and start off with a wnw to nw motion...irene just continues on a west course....amazing

WindRunner · #1587 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:47 pm

They can still upgrade sometime in the next two hours, the model designation isn't a 100% indicator of the 11pm intensity.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #1588 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:48 pm

Its looking alot better then it did a few hours ago.

sma10 · #1589 Postby **sma10** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:48 pm

ivanhater wrote:how are they shifting right, and start off with a wnw to nw motion...irene just continues on a west course....amazing

Notice it's initialized at 23.2N. Irene is slowly gaining latitude. You can't keep saying it's west when it's really WNW.

#1590 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:49 pm

ivanhater wrote:how are they shifting right, and start off with a wnw to nw motion...irene just continues on a west course....amazing

It's moving now 290 WNW.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #1591 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:50 pm

Maybe the LLC is becoming much better defined. In which it was near 23 north ever since last night at this time??? Maybe its tighten a LLC there?

#1592 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:50 pm

sma10 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:how are they shifting right, and start off with a wnw to nw motion...irene just continues on a west course....amazing

Notice it's initialized at 23.2N. Irene is slowly gaining latitude. You can't keep saying it's west when it's really WNW.

until i see it on satellite....ill go with west

#1593 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:50 pm

i don't see it being that far north..

Derecho · #1594 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:51 pm

The N component of motion is significant. People need to give up on the idea that it's moving due W.

gkrangers · #1595 Postby **gkrangers** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:51 pm

Derecho wrote:The N component of motion is significant. People need to give up on the idea that it's moving due W.

Yep, WNW right now.

jrod · #1596 Postby **jrod** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:51 pm

Why the models are initializing a WNW/NW motion also baffles me. I am really interested in where she'll make it north of 25N. All the models have it doing it at or before 65W.

Im out for the night and won't be near a computer until tommorow's 5pm advisory, a lot can change until then.

#1597 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:52 pm

it is NOT going at 290....take a look at satellite folks , as that is what really is going on

Derecho · #1598 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:52 pm

sma10 wrote:
gkrangers wrote:Pretty big shift to the right.

Also note that Irene is still designated as Depression.

At this point you really have to wonder if the threat to Florida hasn't diminished significantly.

It was never all that big to begin with, not certain how the idea that it was took hold so strongly here.

sma10 · #1599 Postby **sma10** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:53 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Maybe the LLC is becoming much better defined. In which it was near 23 north ever since last night at this time??? Maybe its tighten a LLC there?

If you look at a long term loop for the day you can see that the system has moved WNW today.

#1600 Postby **CronkPSU** » Wed Aug 10, 2005 7:53 pm

Derecho wrote:
sma10 wrote:
gkrangers wrote:Pretty big shift to the right.

Also note that Irene is still designated as Depression.

At this point you really have to wonder if the threat to Florida hasn't diminished significantly.

It was never all that big to begin with, not certain how the idea that it was took hold so strongly here.

because it has trended left of the guidance the whole time so people expect it to keep going left and be a threat to florida

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