Possible Development in C Atlantic Wave (Is invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

This quickscat was at 4:24 PM EDT.Shows the circulation with the wave in front of the one emerging Africa.

[Sanibel]

Will it be absorbed by the stronger wave behind it?

[Mecklenburg]

Will it be absorbed by the stronger wave behind it?

i doubt, they're so far apart, and this one is moving pretty fast

[jhamps10]

so what does this have in the way of model support?

[Mecklenburg]

so what does this have in the way of model support?

nada... it will stay as a wave when it moves into the caribbean

[cycloneye]

This was at one point in the 00z GFS run part of the first trio of lows,but later it went away.

[HURAKAN]

Nothing much.

[Emmett_Brown]

Nothing much.

True, not much at the moment, but these types of sleeper waves can cause trouble. It has a spin, and is rather far south. I always pay closer attention to these low lattitude waves since they are closer to home. Shear in this region looks low for the next 48 hours per GFS (note: shear is low in the neighborhood of 10-15 N, approaching the SA coast.)

[Derek Ortt]

No Luis,

This is the wave that GFS is forming into a significant tropical cyclone.

Track the 950mb vorticity

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Good Derek,thanks for clarifying that.

[Weatherfreak14]

I think the 12z models is looking like a Hugo 1989 track. Anyone agree. Besides the point where it moves W into FL.

[Derek Ortt]

closer to a 1926 Miami track

[Ivanhater]

closer to a 1926 Miami track

Pensacola didnt fair to well with that Hurricane either...

[Just Joshing You]

I haven't much time, what are the chances for development, and what are the models saying?

[Sanibel]

There's a weak circulation near the center of this wave near 10 or 11N-39W. I've seen these strengthen and form and seen them wipe out too.

[HURAKAN]

Convection has increased in DMIN.

[cycloneye]

Hmm,trying to get its act together? Nice spin maybe a MLC.

[HURAKAN]

Tomorrow could be an interesting day for this wave.



Shear? Not a problem at the moment.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think this wave is battling a bit with some Dry air and SAL. However the Dust doesn't seem to be as intense as it has been more recently. However there does appear to be a lot of moisture associate with this area.

There is plenty of UL Divergence and LL Convergence, so if it can continually blow up and get some support from the system to the East... We'll see.

SAL

RAMSDIS WV

MID LEVEL DRY AIR

[HURAKAN]

It shows the areas of interest at the moment. EC, CA, and CVI.