Tropics Offically Flat lined !! (dead)

[somethingfunny]

This season is incredible. I'm reviving this thread!

[mpic]

I, for one. am glad it has been uneventful for the GOM this year...my hurricane evacuation funds are stripped dry after what Ike cost me.

[Frank2]

I agree - here in Florida the foreclosure crisis is very bad, and with even a Wilma-type hurricane landfall, the many empty houses, condominium apartments or commercial buildings would not be repaired any time soon...

So, it might be frustrating to many here, but the truth is that the quiet has been a blessing to everyone who's suffered over most of the past 5 seasons, here and in other countries...

[StormClouds63]

I don't miss the evacuations to Arkansas, even though it's a great state w/friendly people. Hope the fronts keep pushing through and the westerlies stay strong for another 4-5 weeks. Please, no bold season-over guarantees yet. Don't jinx a good thing.

[ConvergenceZone]

I know it can be really frustrating as an avid hurricane nut like myself, but I sometimes have to step back and not be so selfish, and realize to learn to enjoy the calm before the storm. Meaning that I'm sure there are extremely active years that lie ahead of us....

We should learn to enjoy it while it lasts. Next year we might be talking about how incredibly active it is, and next year will come quickly....

[Sanibel]

Anyone know when the next MJO will come?

[Aric Dunn]

cannot believe this thread is still around.. seriously its funny.. anyway..

its is so not flat lined.. its about to explode over the next couple days..

[Rainband]

I hope it stays dead. Life is bad enough for some people this year....without a natural disaster

[gatorcane]

cannot believe this thread is still around.. seriously its funny.. anyway..

its is so not flat lined.. its about to explode over the next couple days..

Aric you want to bet it won't explode?

Looking at the models and the various outlooks (see Wxman's thread), it wouldn't surprise me if it is quiet for the next 10 days or so at least anywhere close to where you live (assuming it is the CONUS)

Beyond that models are hinting at a pretty nice Cape Verde system that rolls off Africa SW of the Cape Verde islands in the 10-14 day timeframe which looks to head more west than some of the current Cape Verde systems. It's so far out I would bet it likely wouldn't happen.

[DanKellFla]

Aric you want to be it won't explode?

Uhhhh, what are you trying to say?

[Sanibel]

Anyone have an MJO map? I can't find any MJO link on Google.

[gatorcane]

Aric you want to be it won't explode?

Uhhhh, what are you trying to say?

bet=>bet, corrected.

[gatorcane]

One word TROUGH. It has simply dominated the Eastern part of North America this summer. Check out the NWS Miami snippet......which now brings in the word "FALL" with such a amplified pattern across Northern America by next weekend.

Maybe an early end to the hurricane season for the CONUS this year?

MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PRIMARILY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT A SUBSTANTIALLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA...WHICH MAY BE THE FIRST INDICATIONS THAT THE FALL
SEASON IS CERTAINLY NOT TOO FAR AWAY. HOWEVER...FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING AT
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHEST STORM CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS IS ALREADY
INDICATED...AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT
THIS TIME

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[BigA]

Of course, the east coast trough can also be the line that drags hooked October hurricanes into South Florida.

I think both Aric and Gatorcane have solid points. If the models are any indication, there is a good chance for a significant storm to develop in the east Atlantic during the next week, but it will be unlikely to impact land.

As for the east coast, something may happen there too...the models seem to be sniffing at something.

[Sanibel]

An early cold front doesn't necessarily mean the end of the season. An early front can be followed by a favorable October where conditions rebound in the opposite direction and a Caribbean system forms from the lingering tropical conditions down there at season's end.


However this season has such extensive negative conditions and shear that my personal instinct would be against it. But you have to allow all possibilities in the tropics.

[Jinkers]

I know anything can happen, but I for one am glad it's been so quiet, and the big hurricanes have been fish storms, lets hope it stays that way.

[jinftl]

Quiet in terms of landfalls....but the last few runs of the models suggest several systems developing off of africa in the next week or so......and hint at possible systems closer to home (although there is low consistency between runs and models on that)




5 named storms....quite possibly on the verge of the 6th with 96L.....a few days before the climatologic midpoint and peak of the season...still on track for a double digit # of storms this season. Quiet compared to prior years in terms of landfalls and even #, to that I have one thing to say....el nino forecast by most sources to be gone by next summer.

Given the average of 10.1 storms per season from 1944-2002, climatology would suggest we should have had....drum roll please...between 5 and 6 named storms by this point of the season. We have had 5, and 6 is most likely in the making.

[cycloneye]

Nobody,even the pro mets expected Fred to be a major cane at the time it was named so as we know,the tropics bring many surprises.The season is at 6/2/2,not bad considering the negative conditions that has prevailed.Yes,not healthy systems like Ana,Claudette,Danny and Erika,but they count in the overall numbers for the season.

The numbers may rise or not after the season is over as invest 90L (Late May) is analized at post season analysis to see if it was a storm before it made landfall.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I can't believe I'm posting on this subject. But here we are at the peak of the season. I was looking at the water vapor loop. Seeing so much shear this year. You would think were in a strong El Nino. I'm glad it's mostly a dead year so far.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Cyclenall]

With the Atlantic numbers at 6/2/2, that means 1/3 (33.3~%) of all tropical storms became a major hurricane and 100% of the hurricanes that formed became a major hurricane.