Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[Ivanhater]

78 hours

[Ivanhater]

90 hours

[Ivanhater]

102 hours...have another storm behind this one

[Ivanhater]

132 hours

[KWT]

Big worry is Td2 doesn't lift out at all and if it doesn't then it means there has to be a greater shot that this probably stronger system will also just roll on through westward as the weakness have been overdone. We shall see!

[Wx_Warrior]

If you waiting and hinging on what an 18z run of GFS is going to do to make a decision. We all need to run for the hills!

[Ivanhater]

144 hours

[Ivanhater]

162

[lonelymike]

Be nice to have a pro met to explain the model runs.

[Wx_Warrior]

From my understanding, the 6z & the 18z dont have complete data gathering.

[Ivanhater]

180..in the Caribbean after slamming the Antilles

[Derek Ortt]

It is weaker than previous runs, however

[KWT]

Yep Caribbean runner this run, looks lime its heading towards Cuba at 216hrs.

Generally similar broad synoptics as ECM, but big differences on the actual placement of the storm which clearly makes a huge difference of the Caribbean.

I think the GFS will end up being closer to the mark then the ECM but we shall see...a mix between Donna and Cleo 64 maybe?

Derek, yep it sure is weaker though we all know the models shouldn't relaly be used past a very weak guidence when it comes to strength past say moderate TS strength.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks quite a bit further south in this run.

[Ivanhater]

It is weaker than previous runs, however

Still powerful, but what I notice so far, it is a bit faster in this run and the high is stronger, with a a weaker trough amplification over the Conus compared to the 12z

[Wx_Warrior]

[shah8]

I don't really buy this run. Storms don't go thousands of miles with only a tic or two above W. Not so often, I don't think.

[KWT]

Dean was a classic though that did that, didn't gain more then 3-4 degrees from Cape Verde to central America. If its going to happen then this is the time of year usually it does, by early-mid September the troughs are already strengthening.

[Ivanhater]

Into the Gulf and Florida Panhandle this run...not really important this far out, but the trend all day has been further south and west..let's see the 00z runs

[Wx_Warrior]

I put little (like Dallas going 15-1) into this run. I usually go ALL-IN on the EURO.