The Official 2010 Season Cancel Thread (NO MAJOR LANDFALLS!

[tronbunny]

My opinion...
They're (NHC) all just doing the CYA dance.
First we have critics not happy they hold off on an invest, then we wonder what they're doing naming something that goes 'poof'.

Despite the lack of development, it's interesting to watch all the climatology data, stumping us.
Each day that passes with a fizzle, makes us wonder if the data for the whole 'hyperactive' season suggestion has a solid basis.

What are the caveats for the hyperpredictions?

[hurricaneCW]

I agree with the crazy hyping. JB and all other news outlets were saying this season would be another 2005. The forecast went as high as 23 storms, which I've never seen. So even if the season ends up wit 12-14 storms, which is above average, it would be a complete and utter bust.

I'm not a big fan of NS anyway, as I've said its the ACE thats key, and could still quite easily see a large total with that respect to match the forecasts.

Still, that TUTT needs to get way out of the way in the next 15-30 days if we are to have a shot at getting close to the hyperactive ranking.

I don't think the TUTT will go away. It will probably weaken a bit (instead of 30-40 knots of shear, it will be 20-30 knots), but that wall of shear is here to stay. We'll probably see more favorable shear to the east and to the west of the TUTT, but it's just one more reason that will keep this year a lot lower than forecasts indicated.

[ConvergenceZone]

I still think we will see 10 to 12 named storms this year, providing that the season doesn't die completely at the end of September like it has many other seasons...As long as that doesn't happen, I still think we can get 10 to 12 systems, but we need at least 2 to3 more systems in August if that's going to happen. With more than 3 weeks left still in August, I still think we can get 2 to 3 systems before this month ends.

[StormClouds63]

Remainder of season:
9/5/3

I'm not buying even an above average season. With the 3 earlier storms, would end up 12/6/3. Prior to the season, I predicted 13/7/3, and thought that was probably too low. Not so.

[xcool22]

this have been one bored year so sad

[lonelymike]

I too wish for a boring season but I get the feeling some of you are gonna be crying for Mommy before the season is over

[KWT]

I still think we will see 10 to 12 named storms this year, providing that the season doesn't die completely at the end of September like it has many other seasons...As long as that doesn't happen, I still think we can get 10 to 12 systems, but we need at least 2 to3 more systems in August if that's going to happen. With more than 3 weeks left still in August, I still think we can get 2 to 3 systems before this month ends.

Do you have any idea how slow that sort of season would be, 10-12NS from now on would require a season from now on like the strong El Nino summer of 2009...the pattern is just the opposite.

I'll tell you what, if we end up with that, I'll never post on this forum ever again...thats
how confident I am....12-14NS would be more reasonable but thus far this season is pretty similar to 2007 but globally more like 1998...

Once again we are above average and La Ninas are typically late starters....I mean jeez people clearly have short memories...look at 1998 and 1999....both had nothing other then 1 weak TS at this point, we are already ahead of the curve...

20th August is the key date for me and always has been....but even then its not the be all and end all...as I just can't seem to stop repeating, look at 1961 which had two category-5s....2nd storm.... 2nd September

now what I am going to say is that TUTT is an issue, I'm not going to pretend it isn't, you are going to see quite a few sheared systems like that one this year, as we saw in 2007...but the ones that escape will have great conditions IMO once we get to the 2nd half of August...may only see 3-4 of them escape....but thats easily enough for a monster season....

[PTrackerLA]

I hate to say 'season cancel' or anything of the sort but I'm afraid I bought into the whole hyperactive season a little too much. I have a very hard time believing we'll see some of the higher forecasts pan out (which would be a blessing for a weary GOM). I personally feel we'll end up with 14-15 named storms total this year, hopefully the rest aren't all doozy's! It does strike me how difficult it seems to get a hurricane going the past two seasons, just goes to show you everything has to line up perfectly...and record high SSTs doesn't mean jack without the other keys to development in place. I've been telling friends to wait until August 15th or after for the real season to heat up, but even that is only a week and a half away by now. We'll see!

[DanKellFla]

This Gulf SSTs and the prevailing weather patterns make the Gulf ripe for 3 majors at least. It will be like living inside a pinball machine with all the storms bouncing around. Galveston and NOLA just can't avoid getting creamed this year. Wait..... This isn't June anymore? I'm just going to crawl back into my safe room with my slippers and Ho Ho's.

[somethingfunny]

You guys are all completely insane but I love you.

[Tireman4]

You guys are all completely insane but I love you.

Thank you General Powell..

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully the season will get going soon....Otherwise, here's here's the conversations
we can expect and have already seen..... HEHE. Don't throw rocks at me ....


In July: "Hey where's all the storms/hurricanes they were talking about??"
Reply: "Wait until August comes, the floodgates will open".

August 4th: "Wow, it's August 4th, and we don't have hardly anything to talk about."
Reply: "I think August 15th is when it will start getting busy.


August 15th: "August 15th and still not much to talk about".
Reply: "I think by the end of August it will start picking up quite a bit".

August 30th: "Hmm, August 30th and only a couple of tropical storms this month.
"Reply: "September is the big month, it should get going soon".

September 15: "Still a pretty slow season, not much in the way of tropical activity"
Reply: "True, but sometims the season starts late, I think by the last September it's going to get really busy".

September 30: "It's the end of September and it's still not that busy in the tropics, what gives?"
Reply: "October and November can stil support development".....


I'm not saying the above is going to happen, but I've seen that happen in a couple of previous slow years we've had , and that's exactly how the back and forth
conversations went...
Hehe.....

[angelwing]

I too wish for a boring season but I get the feeling some of you are gonna be crying for Mommy before the season is over

What he said

[KWT]

Haha yeah CZ thats probably what would happen, by the time we get to say November people would be saying:

"looks busy for next year then guys...."

[Jinkers]

One hurricane & two wimpy tropical storms...season's a bust.....

[UpTheCreek]

I hear time and time again by many experienced folks here, including Pro Mets, that the "real" Cape Verde hurricane season doesn't really kick off until Aug. 15th, . It's only August 5th, a good week and a half until the BEGINNING of the "real" season, right? Sure seems to me that conditions in the tropics to support some major storms can avail themselves at any given time.

It's just funny to me that there are so many that grow SO pessimistic, maybe out of boredom (or frustration?) that they all but write the season off as a bust. Don't get me wrong, I'm not on a soapbox because I certainly can't exclude myself from that group! It's just an interesting observation of the mood swings that I've witnessed here over the last 7 or so years that I've been a member. I guess my point is that it's still on the early side of the big game, I sure don't need to tell any of you that anything can happen in the remainder of this season!

That was my pep talk, carry on!

[SoupBone]

Hopefully the season will get going soon....Otherwise, here's here's the conversations
we can expect and have already seen..... HEHE. Don't throw rocks at me ....


In July: "Hey where's all the storms/hurricanes they were talking about??"
Reply: "Wait until August comes, the floodgates will open".

August 4th: "Wow, it's August 4th, and we don't have hardly anything to talk about."
Reply: "I think August 15th is when it will start getting busy.


August 15th: "August 15th and still not much to talk about".
Reply: "I think by the end of August it will start picking up quite a bit".

August 30th: "Hmm, August 30th and only a couple of tropical storms this month.
"Reply: "September is the big month, it should get going soon".

September 15: "Still a pretty slow season, not much in the way of tropical activity"
Reply: "True, but sometims the season starts late, I think by the last September it's going to get really busy".

September 30: "It's the end of September and it's still not that busy in the tropics, what gives?"
Reply: "October and November can stil support development".....


I'm not saying the above is going to happen, but I've seen that happen in a couple of previous slow years we've had , and that's exactly how the back and forth
conversations went...
Hehe.....

This is exactly what's been happening so far this season though. People are running out of time to keep pushing the season back. Three named storms so far is ahead of schedule but the "wait until ***" crowd are just fiending for something/anything. I just sit and patiently wait.

December 24th "wait until *** crowd": Boy I sure wish Santa would bring me a major in the GoM for Christmas....

[robbielyn]

Goes to show how important that all the ingredients are there for a hurricane hot sst's & la ninas dont mean much in and of themselves when you got tons of dry air tutt and sal that can turn an otherwise busy season into bust. Im not saying it will be a bust im just saying that many not just a couple of factors weigh in as far as sustainable development are concerned.

[Brent]

Another naked swirl with a name(2 in a row now!). Just like last year. Season cancel!

[Stormcenter]

Well let's look at it this way. Any Cape Verde disturbance is a good two weeks from the U.S. mailnland so you really only have so many shots after August 15th. Before you know it the cold fronts are heading south. But back to your post. I agree the meat and potatoes of the season starts on August 15 in my opinion. So I suggest we all get a lot of rest before then because even though we may not see the 20 plus storms we all know there more then likely will be some before all is said and done. Right now in my opinion I don't think conditions are "ideal" in the tropics for development.

I hear time and time again by many experienced folks here, including Pro Mets, that the "real" Cape Verde hurricane season doesn't really kick off until Aug. 15th, . It's only August 5th, a good week and a half until the BEGINNING of the "real" season, right? Sure seems to me that conditions in the tropics to support some major storms can avail themselves at any given time.

It's just funny to me that there are so many that grow SO pessimistic, maybe out of boredom (or frustration?) that they all but write the season off as a bust. Don't get me wrong, I'm not on a soapbox because I certainly can't exclude myself from that group! It's just an interesting observation of the mood swings that I've witnessed here over the last 7 or so years that I've been a member. I guess my point is that it's still on the early side of the big game, I sure don't need to tell any of you that anything can happen in the remainder of this season!

That was my pep talk, carry on!