Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[cycloneye]

[#1 Hurricane Fan]

Hi Everyone,I have been lurking since 2005 and finally decided to jion

Is the wave starting to spin already?

[cycloneye]

Hi Everyone,I have been lurking since 2005 and finally decided to jion

Is the wave starting to spin already?

First welcome to storm2k. You can go to our Caribbean thread at USA & Caribbean forum to share the observations from Anguilla. The link is below.

No organization is seen yet in the wave but let's watch it down the road.

[cycloneye]

From 8:05 AM EDT Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N30W TO 6N31W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW WELL-DEFINED
CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

[cycloneye]

The gates start to open.

KNHC 151754
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[KWT]

Hmmm very interesting that they've put a yellow zone on this!

There is good convection down at 8-12N and 35-40W that needs to be watched. There is some light-moderate shear aloft but not the sort that could prelude development.

At least we do have something to watch with this...

[Brent]

Finally! SOMETHING in the TWO!

[Ivanhater]

This is the highly amplified wave the gfs sent to South Florida

[thetruesms]

Well, I'm not going to hold my breath on this one just yet, but it sure beats staring at a blank basin with no potential at all.

[KWT]

Finally! SOMETHING in the TWO!

Its been a long old time, at least this is something to just keep an eye on but there is some very stable air around this wave with the SAL still strong to the north.

[Ivanhater]

[ronjon]

This wave brought a huge moisture surge in the mid and upper levels. The circulation down at the surface appears to be on the northern end that is fighting dry air and subsidence. One thing that is hurting the waves (other than the previous SAL outbreak) is the strength of the Atlantic Ridge now - it's causing downward motion on the south side leading to subsidence which is not conducive to development. I'm thinking this one has a shot as it approaches 60W near the northern LA. The strong ridging will keep this one on a general westerly or W-NW course across the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

I dont expect to see invest 97L for this until it gets more convection and NHC increases the % to 20 and above. I am on the same thinking as ronjon about any development of this wave will wait until it gets past 60W.

[KWT]

You can see the northerly weak circulation really entrailing dry air and SAL into it. FWIW you can see the classic SAL tail just to the west of the system which you can see goes WNW the whole way through the central Atlantic. Odds are probably slim for development, I'd say much less then even 10% over the next 48hrs....

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro

[KWT]

Hmmm 12z ECM suggests a moderatly active wave heading towards the Bahamas. Depending now whether there is still fairly strong shear in that region that'll be the region to watch it in.

[StormTracker]

Yeah, uh-hu, and I'm seeing rotation! Or is it that my hungry eyes want to see rotation?

[StormTracker]

Meanwhile, IvanHater & KWT are helping me rest any easier!

[cycloneye]

Lines made by Tomas Walsh (StormW) from Wunderground.

[KWT]

Yeah there sure does look like there is some broad turning, though all that is aiding is allowing that SAL to get taken into the circulation and probably help to dry out things further. This wave probably is taking the SAL blow so to speak but can't rule it out down the line.