Development in SW Gulf or Bay of Campeche: (Is Invest 93L)

[ROCK]

18Z GFS at 66hrs



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[ROCK]

yes north of Honduras...doesnt look like its wasting any time either....

[Rgv20]

18zGFS has a developing TC by midday Friday...1002Mb low



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[Rgv20]

18zGFS thru 120hrs....should start crawling to the NW..



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[CYCLONE MIKE]

New Orleans AFD:

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE AREA BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A CANADIAN FRONT TO
ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ON DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IMPETUS OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. THE FRONT SHOULD APPROACH WITH A BACK-DOOR ORIENTATION
SATURDAY...WHICH IS TYPICALLY DEVOID OF TOO MUCH CONVECTION BUT
MAY ENHANCE THE FEW STORMS A BIT DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND
FRONTAL FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH SATUDAY THEN COOL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TELECONNECTIONS WOULD STRONGLY
FAVOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.
THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS NOTION WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND. ANY
DEVELOPMENT TRACKS WOULD FAVOR A WESTWARD MOTION INTO MEXICO...AS
SEVERAL OTHER SYSTEMS HAVE DONE THIS SEASON ALREADY. CURRENT
STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WOULD HAVE TO ABATE ACROSS THE LOWER GULF
BEFORE ANY DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE...BUT SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN IN
TIME. 24/RR

Leave it to the good ole boys of baton rouge/new Orleans office to be the voice of reason around here this evening.

Sorry ROCK I just don't see anything to pull whatever this becomes north towards upper tx or LA this go around either. Fronts just arent strong enough yet. Just more of a nuisance to create shear and hostile conditions. Hot and dry all around for another week.

[Rgv20]

Looks like a Tropical Storm on the 18zGFS by 135hrs due East of Tampico.



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[cycloneye]

I'd recommend changing the title to NHC 0/30%... when the chances may in fact be much higher

I can see the % bumped to 40% or 50% in five days at the 8 PM TWO.

[Rgv20]

I'd recommend changing the title to NHC 0/30%... when the chances may in fact be much higher

I can see the % bumped to 40% or 50% in five days at the 8 PM TWO.

50% would be my guess, come on even the stubborn Euro is showing development!

[Rgv20]

18zGFS has it making landfall just north of Tampico....My best guess would be a TC making landfall between Tampico and Brownsville, key word is guess!



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[TropicalAnalystwx13]

18z brings it in as a minimal hurricane on the full resolution.

[Rgv20]

With an origin of being such a broad area of low pressure if this forms I think it has the potential to be a very large and wet system..

18zGFS shows a large system at landfall



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[lrak]

So this possible storm might produce some swells for the Texas coast this weekend

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 40% in five days

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FORM OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE OR THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW
DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[jeff]

So this possible storm might produce some swells for the Texas coast this weekend

Regardless of TC formation long fetch ESE to E flow across the Gulf is going to build some long period swells directed at the TX coast. ET surge guidance is already running about .5 ft above normal by the end of the week with total coastal water level rises pushing 1-2 ft above MSL at Sabine Pass, GLS, Freeport, Rockport, and SPI. TC formation would likely only ramp the swells up more with a stronger wind fetch especially for the middle and lower TX coast.

Think there is a very high risk of TC formation and possibly a hurricane with the slow movement. Stronger system is going to bump the ridge and attempt to find a weakness... MX seems the most likely target however any delay in development allowing the W US trough to enter the plains toward the end of the weekend opens the door for a turn northward (ie 30km FIM) as SC US ridging breaks down and shifts eastward. Current guidance would have our BOC system inland by the time this happens trapped under the belly of the ridging over TX this weekend.

[Portastorm]

Thanks Jeff for the complete analysis ... good stuff. Plus, you've made Irak a happy man. He's probably waxing up those surfboards as I type this!

[ROCK]

18Z NAVGEM 144hr still sitting in the BOC....getting stronger...



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[ROCK]

Speaking of the FIM8 30KM.....this is what I have been talking about, Mike...



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[gatorcane]

Well looking like we should get a named system in the BOC out of this. Good thing for those in Texas or the Western GOM areas of the U.S. is that the GFS and ECMWF send this into Mexico and it is under 144 hours so those models are usually pretty good in that timeframe. That said, I can't say I am completely sure this doesn't sneak up a little more north than these models are showing so those in the Western Gulf, particularly Texas should definitely pay attention. The FIM model from what I have seen this year so far has a poleward bias so not sure it will end up making it that far north Rock but still alot of uncertainties as to where this system ends up.

Unfortunately could be alot of flooding and life-threating rains for those in Central America and yet again Mexico looks like it is going to have another possible hit (or at least impact even if the system ends up further north) from this system.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[lrak]

Thanks Jeff for the complete analysis ... good stuff. Plus, you've made Irak a happy man. He's probably waxing up those surfboards as I type this!

wax on Portastorm, I think I'll buy a new leash just in case. I'd hate to lose my board in big surf...been there done that...scary

thanks for the update, my buddies think I'm a pro at forecasting swells. I guess I'll have to let the cat out of bag and turn them on the storm2k

Thank you Jeff for your reply.

[ROCK]

guidance tonight is keeping this down in the BOC way past 6 days....plenty of time for a weakness to develop by next Sunday. The 12Z GFS showed this as well.....I agree with delay in development the odds of this coming north increases dramatically.

FIM9-8 is supposed to replace the GFS FWIW.....I would not totally discount it.


I dont usually hype something unless for good reason. I smell something and it aint good...