Possible development in the Caribbean

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031146
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW
DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HurricaneBelle]

At least it got outlooked by NHC, so the creation of this thread has been ultimately vindicated. Congrats, Gatorcane!

[floridasun78]

do model show any thing with this area?

[hurricanes1234]

do model show any thing with this area?

I don't think they're showing much anymore, but a few days ago, they were relatively aggressive with it, which is why this thread was opened. However, conditions are hostile across much of the region, so I really don't see any development amidst overwhelming wind shear (>30 knots right now) and choking subsidence. The NHC also says that conditions are generally unfavourable.


MY OPINION ONLY.

[floridasun78]

nhc put circle in area in carribbean this morning maybe because going cause flooding in islands

[floridasun78]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE
LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

[HURRICANELONNY]

NWS Miami:

Organizing?

Some mixing down of drier air from aloft has caused temperatures to warm above guidance by a few degrees...and most areas should reach low to middle 80s during peak heating. Winds have gusted as high as 30 miles per hour at times...and with tight pressure gradient between aforementioned high and low pressure organizing over northern Caribbean should keep wind speeds up through mid-week.

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... =Hollywood

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My Opinion on the Caribbean Wave and a Eastern ATL Wave

http://goo.gl/eX7zTK

[floridasun78]

NWS Miami:

Organizing?

Some mixing down of drier air from aloft has caused temperatures to warm above guidance by a few degrees...and most areas should reach low to middle 80s during peak heating. Winds have gusted as high as 30 miles per hour at times...and with tight pressure gradient between aforementioned high and low pressure organizing over northern Caribbean should keep wind speeds up through mid-week.

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... =Hollywood

i see what their saying that area in central carribbean expect move more to west it look like weak low south of Haiti

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Maybe NWS Miami is right?

[floridasun78]

:uarrow: Maybe NWS Miami is right?

remember last week before storm2k want down model did have area form in central carribbean

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Yes

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My Opinion on this area in the Caribbean and More....

Check it out!

http://goo.gl/x3Qe9T

[HURRICANELONNY]

Nice web site. Can't wait till it's fully operational. My take on what's left of this season is 2014. This year is over. One for the record books. The mets will study and use for future forecasts.

[hurricanes1234]

Nice web site. Can't wait till it's fully operational. My take on what's left of this season is 2014. This year is over. One for the record books. The mets will study and use for future forecasts.

Exactly. I don't even think another named storm will form, or even anything at all. Season is likely over.
NOT OFFICIAL.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Nice web site. Can't wait till it's fully operational. My take on what's left of this season is 2014. This year is over. One for the record books. The mets will study and use for future forecasts.

Thank You! I can't wait to be giving full updates and videos I hope to do more with MTWB and form an LLC in the far future.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Frank2]

Just a guess, but there's still a chance of something forming in the Western Caribbean Sea in the next week or so - we'll see what happens...

[Sanibel]

Not sure the tropical potential is there.



Off Topic: Super Typhoon Haiyan is at 905 195mph sustained winds and about the hit the Philippines. West Pac Active Storms branch. Strongest Typhoon in 20 years!