Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

[cycloneye]

This tweet says it all.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 6 min
If you like eastern Pacific storms you will be quite happy the next week or so! Atlantic... well... maybe? No easy forecast there.

[gatorcane]

The area just to the east of the broad low needs to be monitored.
The convection has been impressive today and could take over.

IMOP

It's still maintaining quite nicely this evening and is headed west rather quickly. Could something develop out of this blob? Might it merge with the wave to the west and be the catalyst that eventually gets development going? I don't see any of the models picking up on it though as even the GFS develops something else a bit to the east of this blob that moves more NW.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,is that Kelvin wave that you mentioned in the EPAC thread going to propagate to the Atlantic in a strong way or it will be weak?

[abajan]

Looks like convection is starting to fire near where the latest TWO indicates the area of interest is. Let's see if it continues to build during the next several hours. I still think the area behind it needs to be monitored though.

[somethingfunny]

Back on topic please.

I posted this in the globals thread. Same system I think....

18Z GFS has something forming in 60 hours, and holds onto a weak storm through 190.
http://imageshack.com/a/img674/2113/XDbVOt.png

http://imageshack.com/a/img902/8913/kvoP1j.png

If that thing develops near the Cape Verde Islands in 60 hours, then there's no way it's this system (still P017L?) we've been tracking in this thread.

The 0z GFS develops it too, but sends it to the northern graveyard much more quickly.

[Hurricaneman]

Thats ex95L, the GFS completely dissipates this and has a weak reflection of the area in between

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Fego]

Same old same.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak and elongated area of low pressure is currently located
about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands. The associated shower activity is limited, and significant
development of this system is not expected during the next couple of
days. Beyond a couple of days, environmental conditions could
become a little more favorable for development when the system moves
slowly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Alyono]

0Z models not showing much, if anything, from this area

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity with a weak and elongated area of low pressure
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands remains disorganized. Development of this system is
not expected during the next couple of days, but beyond that time,
environmental conditions could become a little more favorable for
development when the system moves slowly westward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N42W TO 21N45W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N42W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
700 MB TROUGHING IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON GLOBAL
MODEL DATA BETWEEN 40W-50W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
FOCUSED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 42W-46W.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,is that Kelvin wave that you mentioned in the EPAC thread going to propagate to the Atlantic in a strong way or it will be weak?

As far as I can tell, there currently is a KW that may be pushing through the Atlantic hence the less amount of sinking air and decent looking African wave train. The coming EPAC big KW doesn't look like it will move through the Atlantic this month. These eastern and central Atlantic disturbances have a few days before the suppressed phase returns the end of this week with decreased convection favorability.

[blp]

The Ukmet, FIM, and Navgem are sticking to their guns on this. The Euro also is still showing the vorticity as well but very weak and furthest south at 120hrs. It weak as it runs throught the carribean and slams in C. America. Area between 30-35W looks Ok. Right now until the moonsoon gyre gets sorted out none of the models solutions can be considered reliable but at least there is still some agreement amongst a few.

Ukmet


FIM


Navgem


Euro

[blp]

CCK wave ready to enter the region. Let's see if this can spark things as it did with Bertha. My worry is that the low levels are so elongated right now with the gyre that will anything be able to consolidate.

CCK
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/kelvin/total/vp/atlantic/28.gif

850mb Vorticity
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor.GIF

[NDG]

Ntxw,is that Kelvin wave that you mentioned in the EPAC thread going to propagate to the Atlantic in a strong way or it will be weak?

As far as I can tell, there currently is a KW that may be pushing through the Atlantic hence the less amount of sinking air and decent looking African wave train. The coming EPAC big KW doesn't look like it will move through the Atlantic this month. These eastern and central Atlantic disturbances have a few days before the suppressed phase returns the end of this week with decreased convection favorability.

MJO is currently in Phase 1 and forecasted by the Euro to stay in phase 1 & 2, though weak, a bit longer than earlier forecasted with the NCPE models forecasting it to stay in Phase 1 and strengthening considerable. So I would say that conditions could stay favorable in the central and eastern Atlantic for tropical development through the next 7-10 days at least.

[cycloneye]

The low pressure that was with this wave has been dropped at the 12z TAFB Surface Analysis. We may have to look eastward.

[alienstorm]

Seems that the development will occur somewhere with the development at 12N 32W
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Hurricaneman]

I don't see this developing as the moisture from this seems to be being absorbed by the low behind it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[canes04]

alienstorm,

Agree with you on this area. I noticed it yesterday and think the NHC will X it today.

[tropicwatch]

Looking at the satellite loop, looks like it has really lost its circulation. The one behind it has more convection and circulation.

[Sanibel]

Off-topic: The local weatherman said the thick haze over us yesterday was African dust that made it all the way across. And I was going to post that the thick humidity was a sign of tropical potential.