Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[WPBWeather]

Really good post on Weatherbell about too much emphasis on the cold blob in the MDR and why it may not really be there for long. Even some recently issued forecasts may need to be revised upward with more ACE. Not saying it will happen, but something to watch.

[MGC]

I don't expect the cold blob to be a factor in this season numbers. The tropical Atlantic basin is always warm enough to support hurricanes year round. Shear and dry air seem to be the biggest storm killers......MGC

[cycloneye]

Not too bad looking at MDR on this forecast for ASO by NMME. But GOM and off East coast of U.S are toasty.

[SFLcane]

Hmm... Things getting interesting. Next weeks ECMWF update could raise some eyebrows we shall see.

[wxman57]

Hmm... Things getting interesting. Next weeks ECMWF update could raise some eyebrows we shall see.

I keep checking the ECMWF website for the updated seasonal forecasts but nothing so far. They're usually in the first week of the month, sometimes as late as the 10th.

[HURRICANELONNY]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topsto ... orm=PRHPTP

I didn't know or didn't check that TSR is forecasting below normal year.

[cycloneye]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/more-active-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast-for-2016/ar-BBrucN2?form=PRHPTP

I didn't know or didn't check that TSR is forecasting below normal year.

Check all the expert forecasts here

[wxman57]

The April ECMWF long-range tropical forecast charts are in. Looks like the EC is going with about 11 additional named storms with 5 of them being hurricanes. ACE 80% of normal. Generally high pressure dominating the tropics, but lower than last year in the Gulf. Definitely more rainfall in the Caribbean/Gulf than last season. Quite hostile east of the Caribbean. I think we really have to watch the western Caribbean & Gulf this season.

[Alyono]

looks BRUTAL for the MDR based upon the latest EC

Gulf still has some concerns though

It is also showing very favorable large scale conditions near Hawaii. I would say the chances of a Hawaii landfall are significantly larger than normal by maybe an order of magnitude or even more

[SFLcane]

Frankly 57 I'm more interested in storms that form in the western Atlantic, because they're the ones that have the highest likelihood of affecting land.

[wxman57]

Frankly 57 I'm more interested in storms that form in the western Atlantic, because they're the ones that have the highest likelihood of affecting land.

That's right, and a "dead MDR" would mean development farther west, where somebody will likely get hit. Watch out western Caribbean & Gulf this year.

[PTrackerLA]

The Gulf of Mexico has been eerily quiet, in fact the central and northern Gulf hasn't had a significant TC since Isaac in 2012. The last hurricane anywhere in the gulf was Ingrid in 2013. Pre-season hurricane numbers don't mean much to me it's all about where development and impacts occur. Look at 2010, the third most active season on record by storm count yet no real impacts in the USA were felt. I keep reading "Gulf" this year so I will be ready.

[SFLcane]

Frankly 57 I'm more interested in storms that form in the western Atlantic, because they're the ones that have the highest likelihood of affecting land.

That's right, and a "dead MDR" would mean development farther west, where somebody will likely get hit. Watch out western Caribbean & Gulf this year.

57 when you get a chance post some ECMWF April maps on conditions near US. Things have been so hostile in recent yrs in the Caribbean and gulf.

[wxman57]

57 when you get a chance post some ECMWF April maps on conditions near US. Things have been so hostile in recent yrs in the Caribbean and gulf.

Can't post them because they're by subscription only (lots of $$$$). You have to wait until the public charts come out around the 20th.

[gatorcane]

Does the April ECMWF show a La Niña like the latest CFS is showing? The potential for a La Niña after maybe the strongest El Niño ever recorded could make the Atlantic MDR quite a bit more favorable this year.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: The Gulf of Mexico has been eerily quiet, in fact the central and northern Gulf hasn't had a significant TC since Isaac in 2012. The last hurricane anywhere in the gulf was Ingrid in 2013. Pre-season hurricane numbers don't mean much to me it's all about where development and impacts occur. Look at 2010, the third most active season on record by storm count yet no real impacts in the USA were felt. I keep reading "Gulf" this year so I will be ready.

Yeah the GoM has been TOO QUIET for the past 3-4 seasons! So you'd expect something of significance sooner or later in that region.

By the way, weren't many saying we'd see something significant in the GoM last season?

[Alyono]

Does the April ECMWF show a La Niña like the latest CFS is showing? The potential for a La Niña after maybe the strongest El Niño ever recorded could make the Atlantic MDR quite a bit more favorable this year.

you need to look beyond the textbook ENSO definition

[CYCLONE MIKE]

:uarrow: The Gulf of Mexico has been eerily quiet, in fact the central and northern Gulf hasn't had a significant TC since Isaac in 2012. The last hurricane anywhere in the gulf was Ingrid in 2013. Pre-season hurricane numbers don't mean much to me it's all about where development and impacts occur. Look at 2010, the third most active season on record by storm count yet no real impacts in the USA were felt. I keep reading "Gulf" this year so I will be ready.

Yeah the GoM has been TOO QUIET for the past 3-4 seasons! So you'd expect something of significance sooner or later in that region.

By the way, weren't many saying we'd see something significant in the GoM last season?

Yes, the past couple of seasons actually have been preached about homebrew action and have had much of nothing. Not saying anything won't happen this year but the Gulf has been so hostile for so long will believe it when I see it

[ninel conde]

for any home brew action the persistent years long pattern will have to change. no sign of that now.

[TheStormExpert]

for any home brew action the persistent years long pattern will have to change. no sign of that now.

What pattern is that?