2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[floridasun78]

look florida or southern fl coulde be dry area of low by Bahama For Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, models show the main
upper level trough migrating east and further away from the state
by mid week, with an associated cutoff low developing near the
Bahamas in the Thursday-Friday time frame. Meanwhile, sfc high
pressure seems to spread across the Western Atlantic and bring
back increasingly easterly flow for the second half of the work
week. Most of South Florida will be on the subsidence side of the
aforementioned cut-off low, which normally translates into a drier
pattern establishing across the area. But the stronger easterly
flow should advect enough low level moisture to support afternoon
showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly during the weekend.

[tropicwatch]

No new thread for this potential area will not be posted at this time so let's keep the discussions about this area in this thread for now. From our announcement thread about this:

...in the medium/extended range is not allowed, unless:

1) There is an actual incipient area of disturbed weather already in place, or
2) It is being mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook

Cyclone, I couldn't find it in the TWO.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the Euro is more interested in a potential area of low pressure moving NE out of the Western Caribbean in the medium to long range. Hmmm...

It now also shows the first low just off the SE Coast but very weak.

[gatorcane]

Euro shows two lows now, the second of which originates from the Caribbean. Both bring a good amount of rain to Florida. The GFS shows one low and further east with no rain for Florida.

Good test of the new model upgrades as the ECMWF and GFS have differing solutions.

[WPBWeather]

Euro shows two lows now, the second of which originates from the Caribbean. Both bring a good amount of rain to Florida. The GFS shows one low and further east with no rain for Florida.

Good test of the new model upgrades as the ECMWF and GFS have differing solutions.

Its nice to be starting off the season with so much model clarity!

[stormlover2013]

hey I am just happy the season is here!!!!!!!!! gives us something to do and model watch!!!!!

[gatorcane]

The CMC also brings something out of the Caribbean to the NE with development in the long range but much further east than the ECMWF:

[OuterBanker]

The CMC also brings something out of the Caribbean to the NE with development in the long range but much further east than the ECMWF:

Gator. That graphic is the last in the long range GEM (oh, how I've missed the crazy cousin). The first low which makes landfall south of Charleston at 0z on the the 30th and exits at the DelMarVa 18z 31 is not shown. Of course the GEM has the first low stronger than the Euro. GEM/Canadian is always entertaining.

[cycloneye]

No new thread for this potential area will be posted at this time so let's keep the discussions about this area in this thread for now. From our announcement thread about this:

...in the medium/extended range is not allowed, unless:

1) There is an actual incipient area of disturbed weather already in place, or
2) It is being mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook

.

[OuterBanker]

Interesting thought. Will this thread lead to the first Active Storms/Invests or not of the season (Alex excluded). Make your bets.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS coming in even weaker with the low off the SE U.S. Coast. I'd say development chances are decreasing.

[AJC3]

18z GFS coming in even weaker with the low off the SE U.S. Coast. I'd say development chances are decreasing.

TC development chances were never really all that high to begin with.

On the other hand, chances remain quite high for BI/BE lowering of pressures E or NE of the Bahamas in 3-4 days.

[NDG]

Development or no development one thing for sure is that a very wet period is in tap for much of the Caribbean towards most of the FL Peninsula up to the Carolinas during the next 5-10 days.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Development or no development one thing for sure is that a very wet period is in tap for much of the Caribbean towards most of the FL Peninsula up to the Carolinas during the next 5-10 days.

A lot of rain for sure. Wonder if that large batch off the Carolina coast ends up right along the coast instead.

[NDG]

Either the models are having a tough time with the interaction of the UL trough with tropical moisture or the models, including the ECMWF, are really bad in their 7-10 day range, lol.

[stormwise]

Actually there is a good signal for the SE-US coast storm , also note a signal in the epac/cpac.

[stormlover2013]

they are usually bad in that range anyways

[AJC3]

There's a pretty good area of convection now extending north from eastern Cuba, the Mona Passage and the SE Bahamas. This area probably qualifies for its own thread now.

[TheStormExpert]

But model support is decreasing and development seems unlikely?

[gatorcane]

AJC3, agree area warrants a new thread so started one.