Area of disturbed weather in NW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[CourierPR]

Is that a spin I see in the SW Caribbean?

[RL3AO]

the 5 day probability is the probability that we will have a tropical cyclone. Those chances are greater than 40 percent. Genesis is more likely than not at this point.

The fact that we do not have anything currently should not have a bearing on whether or not we will have something within 5 days.

Yep. 0/70 or 0/80 would be completely justified.

[tarheelprogrammer]

the 5 day probability is the probability that we will have a tropical cyclone. Those chances are greater than 40 percent. Genesis is more likely than not at this point.

The fact that we do not have anything currently should not have a bearing on whether or not we will have something within 5 days.

That is very true hmmm........I just assumed they would not tag something with a higher percentage until it was actually forming. Stupid me

[northjaxpro]

Is that a spin I see in the SW Caribbean?

I mentioned this earlier too. There may be at mid level.

[gatorcane]

The spin looks to be mid-level as there does not appear to be any 850MB vorticity.

As expected convection is on the decrease now.

[psyclone]

I think the NHC just likes to turn the ship slowly. They really seem focused on not needing to walk something back which seems reasonable.

[MetroMike]

My guess is there should be an invest on this within 24 hours.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS total accumulated precipitation shows a swath of significant rainfall for the Tampa Bay area with 10+ inches. Note it is too early to say where the heaviest rainfall will be with this system, this is just one model run:

[gatorcane]

One thing to point out here. I went back and looked at the ECMWF model runs for this system. The ECMWF started picking up on this system all the way back from the Saturday May 28th 12Z run and was showing something into the west coast of Florida in the same general area from the Caribbean in the same general timeframe on each run ever since with varying strengths. Then we saw the other models like the GFS play catchup on later runs. Let's see what happens with this system, but I am pretty impressed with the ECMWF upgrade as far as how it is handling this scenario.

[CDO62]

How useful is the "off-focus" gfdl, in particular you can see the Gulf system going toward the big bend in the Bonnie GFDL run here http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

(HWRF also shows big bend)

The HWRF appears to be the northern most model I've seen so far.



I can't get the image to load as a gif.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Hurricaneman]

Definitely some mid level rotation down there but disorganized convection for now

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[WeatherEmperor]

00z Gfs at 84hrs weaker and more north than before

[Hurricaneman]

I have a feeling this is going to be a nowcast type system and we might need a low before the models catch on at all in terms of intensity really

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tarheelprogrammer]

Much weaker and a lot of shear. Might be a complete mess with all the shear. Many have said it would be and they may be right.

[WPBWeather]

I have a feeling this is going to be a nowcast type system and we might need a low before the models catch on at all in terms of intensity really

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Sounds reasonable as the GFS and dropped and picked up this storm (and Bonnie too) in a confusing way for several days now.

[Javlin]

That GFS run out to 102hrs looks like the front almost looses the supposed low?movement looks slow to the NE/ENE

[Evil Jeremy]

What will the storm's intensity mean in regards to the track? Stronger, more north, weaker south? Or perhaps it's irrelevant in this scenario...

[SeGaBob]

Much weaker and a lot of shear. Might be a complete mess with all the shear. Many have said it would be and they may be right.

It's just 1 model run so I wouldn't look into it too hard. Could be a mess, a well organized system, or just a bunch of rain.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Much weaker and a lot of shear. Might be a complete mess with all the shear. Many have said it would be and they may be right.

It's just 1 model run so I wouldn't look into it too hard. Could be a mess, a well organized system, or just a bunch of rain.

True but leaning toward METS being right about it being a sheared mess. Will be a dangerous flood threat.

[Hammy]

What will the storm's intensity mean in regards to the track? Stronger, more north, weaker south? Or perhaps it's irrelevant in this scenario...

Judging from the model tracks alone, I would assume that the stronger it is the farther north it would go, as the track shifts south the weaker different models show it.