2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The GFS is embarrassing with it's verification and doesn't just need an upgrade but a complete overhaul, its as bad as the Canadian
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The problems with the GFS are unfortunate. What I like most about the GFS is how often it runs and how accessible the model is to the public. IMO has been at the second tier to Euro but still a reliable model.
We need to have at least two reliable models as we head into the start of the season 9 days away so this quite frustrating timing. Hopefully they do something quick to get this resolved.
We need to have at least two reliable models as we head into the start of the season 9 days away so this quite frustrating timing. Hopefully they do something quick to get this resolved.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS verification there is beyond pitiful. I hope this isn't the updated model otherwise there are going to be major forecasting errors when we get into the heart of hurricane season.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Dang!!! That is almost rock bottom for the GFS, what a waste of upgrades it seems over the years. At this point I'd much rather have a dead season like 2013 just to keep us from going crazy.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Hammy wrote:GFS verification there is beyond pitiful. I hope this isn't the updated model otherwise there are going to be major forecasting errors when we get into the heart of hurricane season.
The parallel GFS is supposed to replace it. But the NHC protested it citing it did worse than the OP GFS.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
According to wheat I'm seeing the parallel version is better and has fewer phantom storms
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The 12Z run from the 14th, which was the one that bottomed out was no longer available on Tropical Tidbits. So here is the 7 day forecast from the 0z GFS on the 15th and the 6h forecast for the 18z GFS today (e.g. both verifying the 22nd at 0z)
Just wanted to give an idea of what a really bad forecast looks like. It's probably not nearly as bad as you would think.
Just wanted to give an idea of what a really bad forecast looks like. It's probably not nearly as bad as you would think.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Kingarabian wrote:Hammy wrote:GFS verification there is beyond pitiful. I hope this isn't the updated model otherwise there are going to be major forecasting errors when we get into the heart of hurricane season.
The parallel GFS is supposed to replace it. But the NHC protested it citing it did worse than the OP GFS.
IIRC that's only in the EPAC.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
True. You know how in sports its known that stats dont paint the whole picture. The same applies for models I guess.
I mean the Euro has been flip flopping showing storms left and right in the Epac yet nothing materializing.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
MU going for the whole hog now. Trying to kill 1 million in Bangladesh with a cat 5 equivalent
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 212&fh=192
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 212&fh=192
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Alyono wrote:MU going for the whole hog now. Trying to kill 1 million in Bangladesh with a cat 5 equivalent
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 212&fh=192
that's horrible.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
We had hoped that the GFS Parallel was better but is another fail for NCEP. Big upgrade or overhaul is needed.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/866705082599059456
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/866705082599059456
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/866711019174887425
Levi showing that even the GFS in week 1 has a bias in the SW Caribbean where surface pressures are too low.
Levi showing that even the GFS in week 1 has a bias in the SW Caribbean where surface pressures are too low.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12Z Run from the 17th verifying today is the worst skilled run since last July.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/866722442680692736
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/866722442680692736
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
And the failures keep comming for NCEP.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The GFS (and it some ways the ECMWF) is just terrible with handling the breakdown of mid/high latitude blocking patterns like we saw last week. It's a bad forecast in the polar regions, but when you look at the mid-latitudes and tropics, it still has the general synoptic pattern correct.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Where most people live, the GFS did fine. It generally has the positions of the mid-latitude troughs and ridges correct. It was in the high-latitudes that it struggled by wanting to keep the big blocking patterns in place. The numbers are bad, but when you actually look at the forecasts I think calling for the GFS to be thrown into the garbage is a little over the top.
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
NEW GFS UPGRADE ON JULY 12
Let's hope this big upgrade fix it in a definite way.The link says June 20 but it has been pushed back to July 12.Let's see if they dont have more pushbacks on the date.
------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/G ... FS2017.htm
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/867430996064522240
Let's hope this big upgrade fix it in a definite way.The link says June 20 but it has been pushed back to July 12.Let's see if they dont have more pushbacks on the date.
------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/G ... FS2017.htm
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/867430996064522240
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
why do we even take the MU seriously given how bad it verifies and its run to run consistency. See what it is doing in the BOB now. Absolutely no run to run consistency from it. It is absolutely worthless
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