2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[chris_fit]

12Z 5/10 Summary...

Euro shows nothing of interest - smooth sailing

Canadian shows a disorganized mess heading to FL @ 240 hours


FV3 (New GFS) Pounds Tampa Area @ 306 Hours


GFS pounds Naples @ 324 hours


ICON shows disorganized mess @ 180 hours (as far out as it goes I think)


Navy Model shows weak low @ 180 hours

[BYG Jacob]

One thing to note however, is that models do agree on something cooking up. And conditions don't appear to be overtly hostile to development. SSTs are warm enough to support a hurricane.

[Dylan]

FYI, The European along with all of its ensemble members do not show the GFS Cane. It appears that NOAA did not fix the issues that the GFS had with ghost storms last season.

[gatorcane]

one clue this is probably a GFS phantom is that if you notice the timeframe has stopped coming in on when genesis happens the past several runs. I am guessing one of the runs soon it will just vanish from the GFS.

[LarryWx]

Based on the fact that there has been only 1 TC recorded since way back in 1851 with a 5/11-20 genesis in the W Caribbean that reached H strength and that just for 12 hours peaking at only 80 mph well down in the Caribbean, this 12Z FV3 borderline cat 2/cat 3 that hardly weakens over N FL ain't happening.

[floridasun78]

so topic could die soon because looking like gfs going out lunch because other models who we know got it right show only ranis maker late next week

[AtlanticWind]

Based on the fact that there has been only 1 TC recorded since way back in 1851 with a 5/11-20 genesis in the W Caribbean that reached H strength and that just for 12 hours peaking at only 80 mph well down in the Caribbean, this 12Z FV3 borderline cat 2/cat 3 that hardly weakens over N FL ain't happening.

I agree it's very very unlikely.
But we have records that only go back a few hundred
years at best.

Does not mean that it has never happened in the past.

[LarryWx]

Based on the fact that there has been only 1 TC recorded since way back in 1851 with a 5/11-20 genesis in the W Caribbean that reached H strength and that just for 12 hours peaking at only 80 mph well down in the Caribbean, this 12Z FV3 borderline cat 2/cat 3 that hardly weakens over N FL ain't happening.

I agree it's very very unlikely.
But we have records that only go back a few hundred
years at best.

Does not mean that it has never happened in the past.

True/good point. However, it wouldn't surprise me if this were something like a 1 in 1,000+ year type of event.

[chaser1]

Based on the fact that there has been only 1 TC recorded since way back in 1851 with a 5/11-20 genesis in the W Caribbean that reached H strength and that just for 12 hours peaking at only 80 mph well down in the Caribbean, this 12Z FV3 borderline cat 2/cat 3 that hardly weakens over N FL ain't happening.

Certainly a compelling argument. Still, as long as the GFS is steadfast i'm keeping a wary eye to see if the forecast period manages to get as close as 144 hr. True enough though..... we've seen some pretty persistent GFS forecasts that suddenly one run, everything turned to roses and Unicorns.

[MetroMike]

Based on the fact that there has been only 1 TC recorded since way back in 1851 with a 5/11-20 genesis in the W Caribbean that reached H strength and that just for 12 hours peaking at only 80 mph well down in the Caribbean, this 12Z FV3 borderline cat 2/cat 3 that hardly weakens over N FL ain't happening.

Certainly a compelling argument. Still, as long as the GFS is steadfast i'm keeping a wary eye to see if the forecast period manages to get as close as 144 hr. True enough though..... we've seen some pretty persistent GFS forecasts that suddenly one run, everything turned to roses and Unicorns.

Yes it all depends on favorable conditions no matter if its June or not. Seems the MJO will allow development around this timeframe in this area.

[BYG Jacob]

Shear over the SW Caribbean, SSTs, and moist air make for a conductive environment down there. If something spins up, it can get cooking.

[LarryWx]

Based on the fact that there has been only 1 TC recorded since way back in 1851 with a 5/11-20 genesis in the W Caribbean that reached H strength and that just for 12 hours peaking at only 80 mph well down in the Caribbean, this 12Z FV3 borderline cat 2/cat 3 that hardly weakens over N FL ain't happening.

Certainly a compelling argument. Still, as long as the GFS is steadfast i'm keeping a wary eye to see if the forecast period manages to get as close as 144 hr. True enough though..... we've seen some pretty persistent GFS forecasts that suddenly one run, everything turned to roses and Unicorns.

Keep in mind folks how the GFS often way overstrenghtened TCs last season. Example: remember those numerous Irma runs down below 900 mbs? Many of the runs turned out to have Irma 30+ mb too strong. This may be the reason the GFS/FV3 are so ridiculously strong with this new potential. Could it be 30 mb too strong and we instead get something more like 1000 mb when/if it gets to the US, if there's any TC at all? I say yes and climo backs this up.

[NDG]

With the strong MJO currently in our part of the world I say yes to development but only a weak to moderate TS at best, if at all.

[BYG Jacob]

18z GFs send a 978 MB hurricane into Naples

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2018051018&fh=336

[AdamFirst]

Latest run of the GFS is showing a weak reflection in the eastern GOM in about 72 hours. Attempts to close a low but fails as the energy drifts northward. A rainy deluge for the Florida peninsula though, for sure.

[BYG Jacob]

On the 0z run, after hour 264 they develop the storm again. so far they're taking it straight north into Cuba.
Makes landfall on Cuba as borderline cat 1 at 991 mb at hour 312, and then at hour 336 runs into the keys as a 986 MB cat 1.

[boca]

At least the GFS is persistent in the phantom storm which it’s been showing for a number of days now.Its something to talk about even though it will eventually drop it.

[AdamFirst]

GFS is also showing development of this 'storm' later in this run, farther into fantasy land (0z closes off low at hour 252 vs hour 204 on the 18z). Definitely chalking this up as a phantom

[Hammy]

Several of the most recent runs show some sort of low forming along the Panhandle around Tuesday.

[NDG]

As we have been getting closer in time development of the GFS's Caribbean phantom storm has been disappearing, popping up further in time.
In the short term the disturbance to watch is the weak hybrid system in the eastern GOM, weak development is possible, heavy rains for us here in FL.