Nederlander wrote:NDG wrote:I don't see any signs of a surface circulation this morning, there's a trough just to the east of Nica that is wide open.
Euro is coming out to be the winner on this event
Not sure how you can say that with so much certainty.. GFS wasn’t showing development until GOM and the EURO had nothing...
Euro within its medium range started showing disturbed surge of moisture up from the SW Carib into the W gulf with low to nil development. GFS sniffed out the potential in its long range and likely took it too far. The moral of the story here is both models are now in general agreement.
The best take from this lesson is understand the model biases. It's not always model wars, but to understand how/when to use them for the best forecast. It's good to use the Euro/Ukmet as a confirmation for the GFS, especially in the medium range. The GFS can be a good starting stone but can overdo it in some cases. Had the northern gulf taken the GFS and some ICON runs seriously we'd have a madhouse right now, instead it may be not much happening there but further west in terms of disturbance.