Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[SFLcane]

Euro ensembles...

Bermuda to Gulf. Seems to have dominant cluster east with a secondary cluster west like GFS.

[LarryWx]

Euro ensembles...

Bermuda to Gulf. Seems to have dominant cluster east with a secondary cluster west like GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/mTJu3mp.gif

1. This animation clearly suggests that the much more dangerous group for the CONUS (and the Antilles, too, obviously) is the smaller cluster near or within a couple of hundred miles south of the Greater Antilles.
2. It also shows that the faster moving members in the MDR are not surprisingly the ones that move on a further south and west track and are the ones in the more dangerous cluster. Unfortunately, models have tended to be too slow in the MDR. That does not bode well.

[LarryWx]

I finally saw the 12Z UKMET. It is much weaker than the last few runs but related to that it is quite a bit further SW (Leewards at day 7). Although it is weaker and it is a left biased model, this trend is definitely not what we should want to see if we don't want the Caribbean and CONUS to be threatened.

[sma10]

I finally saw the 12Z UKMET. It is much weaker than the last few runs but related to that it is quite a bit further SW (Leewards at day 7). Although it is weaker and it is a left biased model, this trend is definitely not what we should want to see if we don't want the Caribbean and CONUS to be threatened.

Larry did this include the uk ensembles as well as the operational?

[LarryWx]

The 120 hour for 18Z GFS is a bit further west than the 6Z and 12Z. That tells me the odds somewhat favor a further west track in the western basin vs the 6Z/12Z and maybe a similar pretty far west track to the 0Z. Also, this run is much stronger than the 3 prior runs. Let's see. This may be a doozy.

[toad strangler]

The 120 hour for 18Z GFS is a bit further west than the 6Z and 12Z. That tells me the odds somewhat favor a further west track in the western basin vs the 6Z/12Z and maybe a similar pretty far west track to the 0Z. Also, this run is much stronger than the 3 prior runs. Let's see. This may be a doozy.

Also S of last two GFS runs

[Hurricaneman]

The 120 hour for 18Z GFS is a bit further west than the 6Z and 12Z. That tells me the odds somewhat favor a further west track in the western basin vs the 6Z/12Z and maybe a similar pretty far west track to the 0Z. Also, this run is much stronger than the 3 prior runs. Let's see. This may be a doozy.

Also S of last two GFS runs

Could go south of Hispaniola which is usually bad news for the GOM

[SFLcane]

The 120 hour for 18Z GFS is a bit further west than the 6Z and 12Z. That tells me the odds somewhat favor a further west track in the western basin vs the 6Z/12Z and maybe a similar pretty far west track to the 0Z. Also, this run is much stronger than the 3 prior runs. Let's see. This may be a doozy.

Indeed much stronger through 138hrs..

[sma10]

The 120 hour for 18Z GFS is a bit further west than the 6Z and 12Z. That tells me the odds somewhat favor a further west track in the western basin vs the 6Z/12Z and maybe a similar pretty far west track to the 0Z. Also, this run is much stronger than the 3 prior runs. Let's see. This may be a doozy.

Also S of last two GFS runs

Could go south of Hispaniola which is usually bad news for the GOM

Yep. Once south of Hispaniola gonna be bad news for someone - no escape routes. Only hope would be weakening

[jhpigott]

The 120 hour for 18Z GFS is a bit further west than the 6Z and 12Z. That tells me the odds somewhat favor a further west track in the western basin vs the 6Z/12Z and maybe a similar pretty far west track to the 0Z. Also, this run is much stronger than the 3 prior runs. Let's see. This may be a doozy.

Indeed much stronger through 138hrs..

. . . and getting ready to traverse the Hebert box

[LarryWx]

The 120 hour for 18Z GFS is a bit further west than the 6Z and 12Z. That tells me the odds somewhat favor a further west track in the western basin vs the 6Z/12Z and maybe a similar pretty far west track to the 0Z. Also, this run is much stronger than the 3 prior runs. Let's see. This may be a doozy.

Also S of last two GFS runs

Could go south of Hispaniola which is usually bad news for the GOM

I don't think it is going to go S of Hisp. (it may go right over it, which is still not a good trend besides not being good for Hisp)) but it is certainly coming in further south into the Caribbean.

[toad strangler]

174 hrs 18z GFS and looking like definite interaction with the shredder chain. A touch more S and a touch more progressive. Much stronger pre GA’s

[toad strangler]

Right into Western DR

OUCH

[SouthFLTropics]

This track definitely has a Georges vibe to it...Looks to be headed along the northern Cuban coast right towards the Keys.

[SFLcane]

This isn’t gonna end well...GFS stair stepping nearing the Bahamas unfortunately.

[SouthFLTropics]

This isn’t gonna end well...GFS stair stepping nearing the Bahamas unfortunately.

Yep...And strengthening as well. Looking more like David 1979.

[bqknight]

This wave definitely seems like the one to watch. Most models are picking it way more than they ever did for 94L.

Question is - does it recurve?

Whatever solution the models are showing now are extremely unlikely to verify this far out.

[toad strangler]

This is now in far flung fantasy range as far as verbatim track goes but a strong signal nonetheless. The early trend has been S and W on the GFS

[WeatherEmperor]

Gfs has a sense of humor




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[AxaltaRacing24]

The GFS doesn't like us...