2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Category5Kaiju]

We gonna be in a LOT of trouble if in May of all months, a high end Cat 3 or low end Cat 4 happens in the Western Atlantic.

In the meantime, enjoy the power of phantom GFS!

[AtlanticWind]

If this happened liked the GFS is showing I think the NHC would be moving up the start
of hurricane season to May 15th next year

[cycloneye]

If this happened liked the GFS is showing I think the NHC would be moving up the start
of hurricane season to May 15th next year

There was talk about that at last years meeting of the WMO and the only thing NHC did was to start the Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15.

[toad strangler]

Classic GFS GHOST. It’s been showing for days but not moving up in time much. Not to mention the highly suspect origin of vorticity.

[Steve]

Drink up everyone!

You already know it. Usually when the GFS is spitting out phantoms, the solutions tend to change from run to run or at least not be consistent over more than a couple consecutive runs (anecdotal but I think right) or keep backing up the time. I think the backing up is sort of what this is doing. On Monday 18z, it had a much weaker low system that was already off SC/NC coast. Now it's landfalling a +/- Cat 3 in Hancock/Harrison Co. MS. It's way too symmetrical for an interpretation of 384 hours out. But I'll be damned if it hasn't continued to want to bring something for at least 18-20 runs in a row. MJO appears to be headed across the top toward 8/1 unless it cuts back into the circle first. And there is a CCKW moving across next week. So you could see why the GFS is bullish in the fantasy long term. I'd say if we have something coming up out the West Caribbean Memorial Day week, GFS did a good job sniffing that out in advance. Odds? I'd give it 8-10% which is likely overly generous.

[SFLcane]

Few eps members…

[skyline385]

Few eps members…

https://i.postimg.cc/KzfdtQv0/65-B22777-6185-4-ECB-8-AA4-5-BBB640-B6027.jpg

That's a decent number of EPS members including some strong ones, this might be more than a phantom possibly?

[AutoPenalti]

timeframe for development hasn’t closed in nor has it pushed back

[Kingarabian]

GFS going to shock us all? Fool me once...

[AnnularCane]

If this happened liked the GFS is showing I think the NHC would be moving up the start
of hurricane season to May 15th next year

I was actually thinking the same thing earlier today.

[Cpv17]

Few eps members…

https://i.postimg.cc/KzfdtQv0/65-B22777-6185-4-ECB-8-AA4-5-BBB640-B6027.jpg

How many members does the EPS have? 51?

[USTropics]

Few eps members…

https://i.postimg.cc/KzfdtQv0/65-B22777-6185-4-ECB-8-AA4-5-BBB640-B6027.jpg

How many members does the EPS have? 51?

EPS medium-range (15 days) has 52 ensemble members—50 individual ensemble members, an HRES member, and a control member. The one member being designated for a higher spatial resolution is known as the HRES at ECMWF, sometimes referred to as the operational forecast/member by other agencies.

HRES essentially uses the most accurate estimate of real-time conditions and utilizes the best description of the model physics. The other members are given altered starting conditions, known as perturbations, to cover real-time variability and physics limitations. While the HRES in theory provides the most accurate description of weather forecasting (averages over an extended period of forecasts provides the most accurate skill at ~10 days), it may not be the most accurate member of the ensemble suite or over the course of a shorter period of forecasts (due to aforementioned variability/perturbed ensemble members and physics limitations).

The ensemble suite also contains a control member, which is run at a lower spatial resolution than the HRES. The control initializes with the same starting conditions, parameters, and model physics but its main function is to provide an unperturbed member (or starting base) for each ensemble member (which has perturbations applied). As such, the 50 perturbed members of the ensemble suite are similar to the control member, but their initial states and model physics are perturbed to provide a range of possible future weather states (they essentially provide a buffer to forecast uncertainty and confidence).

You can find daily and weekly scores here (https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/openchar ... 9%22%5D%7D)

[skyline385]

GFS 0Z going on a tour of the Gulf lol

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS 0Z going on a tour of the Gulf lol

Not only that, it also shows a TS in the open subtropics by the end of the month lol

[Kingarabian]

For the most part and regardless of strength, the models are now all agreeing on a system to form in about 5-7 days somewhere near central America. 00z GFS continues to favor a WCaribbean system. 00z Euro and CMC favor a eastern EPAC system.

[aspen]

06z GFS has the CAG become a sheared and weak TS going through the Yucatán channel, which is a far more realistic solution than a strong TS or weak hurricane in the Caribbean. The timeframe continues to move closer, as the precursor area of rotation can be seen starting at 132-168 hrs out.

[skyline385]

06z GFS has the CAG become a sheared and weak TS going through the Yucatán channel, which is a far more realistic solution than a strong TS or weak hurricane in the Caribbean. The timeframe continues to move closer, as the precursor area of rotation can be seen starting at 132-168 hrs out.

While this is a far more realistic scenario, almost all of the ensemble members from the 6z run are still heading north towards LA and FL.

Historically this also seems to be the path May systems prefer

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

[Category5Kaiju]

Is it just me, or did the signal for the potential EPAC system later next week greatly weaken? The GFS, CMC, and Euro (especially the GEFS) don't seem as excited about it as they were several days ago and prior.

[SFLcane]

But, but , but gfs....

[wxman57]

If this happened liked the GFS is showing I think the NHC would be moving up the start
of hurricane season to May 15th next year

No, I don't think that they would. Since 1950, the average date of the first hurricane has moved from late July to early August. On only 3 occasions has a hurricane formed prior to June 1. In this case, the GFS is the only model predicting development. Not even a hint of development in the Euro or Canadian. That, and knowing the the GFS tends to spin up spurious hurricanes from the SW Caribbean in May, is a BIG red flag. Nothing, at present, to indicate that this is any more than a modelcane.