Atlantic INVEST 93L: W Africa

[Aric Dunn]

Certain things are needed for this system to survive to the Caribbean:

1. Stay LOW: this WNW crap has to end only due West will due
2. Slow down: That environment in front of you is not nice...give it a little time to change
3. Maintain: You don't have to be a TS just maintain periodic moderate convection


Things that may be over looked:
1. water temps aren't so bad...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13001

80F nighttime SST at 12N 38W
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0atsst.png

it would have to make past 40 west.. to reach sufficient ssts to maintain or become better organized

if it crossed 12 n which its very close to doing now.. then its over ... i will give it its last 12 hours. of hope. then if its still moving just N of west then its over... and if it take the track the bam models have it .. it will be over low 70's in 24 to 36 hours

[drezee]

it would have to make past 40 west.. to reach sufficient ssts to maintain or become better organized

Though I am happy that we have sats that estimate the water temparatures. I prefer buoys. African dust and other things can lower the number quite easily and does on a regular basis.

[Aric Dunn]

it would have to make past 40 west.. to reach sufficient ssts to maintain or become better organized

Though I am happy that we have sats that estimate the water temparatures. I prefer buoys. African dust and other things can lower the number quite easily and does on a regular basis.

ok you want to know how accurate the map is... first of all most of the maps use a combination of bouy and satellite data .. that image i put of earlier is one of them



bouys 13008 and 41026

buoy 13008 being farther north about 15 north .. has a water temp of
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 77.0 °F

and just to its south at buoy 41026 sitting at 12n has
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 79.9 °F

so if you compare the SST image and the bouy data you will see that 12N in the rough line of where the 26 degree ssts are .. anything north is not warm enough ...

[drezee]

so if you compare the SST image and the bouy data you will see that 12N in the rough line of where the 26 degree ssts are .. anything north is not warm enough ...

So you were backing me up?

"1. Stay LOW: this WNW crap has to end only due West will due "

[Aric Dunn]

so if you compare the SST image and the bouy data you will see that 12N in the rough line of where the 26 degree ssts are .. anything north is not warm enough ...

So you were backing me up?

"1. Stay LOW: this WNW crap has to end only due West will due "

yeah .. but those ssts maps are very good.... and its almost to late.. its moving north of 10 as we speak and by later today will be near 12 n and will move north of that .. into cooler and cooler waters.... by later tonight .... its over unless some carzy crap happens .. and it moves west ...

[Steve]

There's another tight looking wave to come off in the next day or two. They do look good for June, that's for sure.

Steve

[Cryomaniac]

its over unless some carzy crap happens.

Don't underestimate the ability of nature to produce "crazy crap" =)

[Weatherfreak000]

Perhaps the wave could reform a bit slightly to the south, but this thing needs a miracle to make TS status now...

[drezee]

Perhaps the wave could reform a bit slightly to the south, but this thing needs a miracle to make TS status now...

Luckily today is Sunday....Sing......

ARE YOU LOOKING FOR A MIRACLE TELL HIM WHAT YOU NEED...I SAID....R U LOOKIN' 4 a MIRACLE!!!!!

[canes04]

93 is hanging in there, I still think it has a shot.
Let's see if it can refire convection near the center today.

[drezee]

576
ABNT20 KNHC 101517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE HAS DECEASED...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING
LESS LIKELY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Aric Dunn]

576
ABNT20 KNHC 101517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE HAS DECEASED...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING
LESS LIKELY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

just as i figured

[hial2]

Perhaps the wave could reform a bit slightly to the south, but this thing needs a miracle to make TS status now...

Luckily today is Sunday....Sing......

ARE YOU LOOKING FOR A MIRACLE TELL HIM WHAT YOU NEED...I SAID....R U LOOKIN' 4 a MIRACLE!!!!!

Experience lesson from an old(er) man..

Be careful what you pray for...you might get it in spades!!

Reminds me of the dinner we had before Andrew arrived and all the toasting and jest...BEFORE we knew better..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Dry air and shear have eaten this thing for breakfast.
Might have a shot once it gets further west...but that is looking
less likely..it is really being eaten by hostile conditions....

[wxman57]

Dry air and shear have eaten this thing for breakfast.
Might have a shot once it gets further west...but that is looking
less likely..it is really being eaten by hostile conditions....

The farther west it gets, the less favorable the upper-level winds. It's toast.

[TheRingo]

early intensity guidance are keeping it going for at least 5 days.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Dry air and shear have eaten this thing for breakfast.
Might have a shot once it gets further west...but that is looking
less likely..it is really being eaten by hostile conditions....

The farther west it gets, the less favorable the upper-level winds. It's toast.

Yup looks like shear had a yummy breakfest out of this one...
Stuff in that area doesn't start developing until August anyhow...

[Aric Dunn]

Dry air and shear have eaten this thing for breakfast.
Might have a shot once it gets further west...but that is looking
less likely..it is really being eaten by hostile conditions....

The farther west it gets, the less favorable the upper-level winds. It's toast.

not sure about the dry air part . its in a pretty good moist envelope as seen from the WV loop ( given the WV does not tell the whole story. but give a good general idea ) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

which is a big difference from a few days ago .. when the whole eastern Atlantic was dry as a bone

but yeah.. its done for!! moving over sub 80 degree ssts here in the next 12 hours or .. that will be the killer... and actually most of the northern part of the circ is already over sub 80 ssts

[drezee]

WHat amazes me more than anything is the fact that we are talking about a cape verde wave in June with vigor...

[Aric Dunn]

finally have another visible from NRL maybe they will keep them coming NRL VIS