Ex Invest 95L

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Despite the curved banding, shear will destroy
95L...NHC continued to emphasize in their discussions that
shear would destroy this thing.
Upper level winds are simply not favorable.

Say Bye Bye to 95L.

[SouthFloridawx]

you obviously dont know what curved banding features look like.. although not wraping all the way around they are there and are much more defined then they were yesterday

With all due respect, and no big deal.. I'm sure he knows what Curved Banding Features are. He is right, there is basically only a broad circulation and as far as I knew... in order to be classified as curved band pattern, it needs to have some type of convection. Unfortunately it's not sitting over water and may only form in a few days as it moves off the NE very slowly...

This swirl is just that right now... nothing more than a low level swirl.

No big deal...

[Aric Dunn]

I believe it is centered over land right now........not good for formation

yep over land..

but has been slowly creeping eastward.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This thing will not survive. Shear will kill it.

That is why the NHC said upper level winds are
NOT favorable.

[wzrgirl1]

what's amazing to me is that there were some areas that received as much as 4 inches of rain in the same city as me and I didn't get one drop.......crazy i tell ya just crazy

[Aric Dunn]

you obviously dont know what curved banding features look like.. although not wraping all the way around they are there and are much more defined then they were yesterday

With all due respect, and no big deal.. I'm sure he knows what Curved Banding Features are. He is right, there is basically only a broad circulation and as far as I knew... in order to be classified as curved band pattern, it needs to have some type of convection. Unfortunately it's not sitting over water and may only form in a few days as it moves off the NE very slowly...

This swirl is just that right now... nothing more than a low level swirl.

No big deal...

that is the whole point... you nailed it.. we need to watch because as it moves off shore.. it would have a better chance..

and as for the curved banding.. yeah it normally needs to be warping around a certain percentage of the center and i think i mentioned a few post back.. I said what i said because the bands of level clouds which do have rain associated with .. are clearly curved and are rotating around the broad center..

[SouthFloridawx]

So we're agreed then...

No Big Deal.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

No big deal cause 95L is dead folks...DEAD

[Aric Dunn]

This thing will not survive. Shear will kill it.

That is why the NHC said upper level winds are
NOT favorable.

here is something funny .. to remember.. now given ever system is different.. the nhc over and over said the shear was to strong for barry... ever outlook they said it.. but what happened..

SHEAR IS NOT THE ONLY KILLER

the fact is, is this system has persisted in the shear environment for days now.. as long as the surface feature which classifies any tropical system is still there .. then it always has a chance.. because shear and other factors change.

[Aric Dunn]

No big deal cause 95L is dead folks...DEAD

good then dont watch it anymore...

[Aric Dunn]

but yeah no big deal

[WindRunner]

Actually, it's only been a "system" for about 42 hours now . . . not exactly persistence . . .

[Cyclone1]

Wow, we must be bored. We've been talking about this since June 23.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

No big deal cause 95L is dead folks...DEAD

good then dont watch it anymore...

I'm just saying what the NHC said...that shear yields no chance for
development....

[windstorm99]

This area is likely to be absorbed by the next trof of low pressure.

[Aric Dunn]

Actually, it's only been a "system" for about 42 hours now . . . not exactly persistence . . .

maybe an invest..
but it has been fighting the shear for much longer than that.. as a tropical wave and even when it started "organizing" enough to be a invest still shear..

[Aric Dunn]

This area is likely to be absorbed by the next trof of low pressure.

yep in about 3 to 4 days..that is a long time

[WindRunner]

you obviously dont know what curved banding features look like.. although not wraping all the way around they are there and are much more defined then they were yesterday

The only way you can qualify the line of thunderstorms as curved banding features is if you want to argue subtropically. As for now, the "banding" features are not within 100 miles of the center of circulation (which, for now, is inland NW of Lake Okeechobee) and therefore are not even connected to the center, much less wrapped around.

[WindRunner]

Actually, it's only been a "system" for about 42 hours now . . . not exactly persistence . . .

maybe an invest..
but it has been fighting the shear for much longer than that.. as a tropical wave and even when it started "organizing" enough to be a invest still shear..

Invest status is just up to 24 hours now. 12z yesterday was the official declaration of invest. Low pressure has only been there for 42 hours, since about 21z the day before. Unorganzied convection has been there about two and a half days.

So yes, it's been fighting the shear. Only problem is that it's losing . . . badly.


And FYI, the shortwave should pick it up in about 48-60 hours . . .


EDIT: to correct invest time.

[wzrgirl1]

Wow, we must be bored. We've been talking about this since June 23.

yep and jumping at the slim chance that just maybe.....maybe something will form.........even though we know that most likely nothing will get going for a couple more weeks at least