Long-Term Model Runs

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z Euro is more bullish on both systems, carrying a closed low off Africa and across the basin through day 7, and also developing a system in the Bay of Campeche and taking it towards Mexico.

WOW look at that Atlantic Ridge

[Aric Dunn]

12Z Euro is more bullish on both systems, carrying a closed low off Africa and across the basin through day 7, and also developing a system in the Bay of Campeche and taking it towards Mexico.

WOW look at that Atlantic Ridge

yeah quite expansive

[x-y-no]

Note: I made those SLP isobars at 2mb intervals rather than the usual 4.

[Meso]

As I created this thread for all tropical formation in a long time frame.Interesting to show the gfs fairly consistent with also developing an area behind the one that's being mainly talked about.. And as this thread is meant to be taken really lightly and just basically for reference to see what comes true from what models.

The gfs at 384 hours

[SouthFloridawx]

Yes meso, it has been developing and area behind it, pretty much every model run.

Good look man...

[windycity]

Wow, this is nuts. Reminds me of Francis Jeanne of 04. Of course, the models will probably drop it tomarrow. I HOPE!!!

[Stormcenter]

This latest CMC run is actually somewhat believable this time around.
It could make for a ton of watches and warnings along the
GOM coastline.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[artist]

what makes it more believable that far out?
And the one that is hitting the Tx coast is a separate one I believe originating around Honduras. Please correrct me someone if I am wrong.

[Thunder44]

While most here are focused on the Atlantic, the 0z EC develops another EPAC hurricane just off Mexican coast, in 8 to 10 days.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

90L is just the start for the Atlantic. The GFS is showing a lot of possible activity in the next two weeks.

[windycity]

Could the euro be taking in consideration that the yucatan disturbance will alter the course of 90l? Since it does develop two storms, isn't that possible?? Send 90l on a more northen path, while the yucatan area develops.

[storms in NC]

Could the euro be taking in consideration that the yucatan disturbance will alter the course of 90l? Since it does develop two storms, isn't that possible?? Send 90l on a more northen path, while the yucatan area develops.

I don't have a answer for you.I asked the same thing. So I am taking it will make no matter. for the time 90L get there the other will be out of the gulf I would take it.But from what I have read a stright west path and take it into Hounduras for now till things change.

[Meso]

The 00z EURO is interesting,developing a system behind 90l,can see it at 20N..


00z CMC at 144 Hours


00z UKMET at 132 Hours

[Meso]

Atlantic looking rather busy

[Meso]

06z GFS showing another storm


00z CMC


00z UKMET


End of the 06z run... Storm after storm according to the GFS

[swimaway19]

This run shows the area in question taking what looks to be a Dean-esque route and formation

[canegrl04]

I hope Texas isn't the Florida of 2004 tropical season. Alot more damage potential especially in Houston where most of the country's oil refining goes on

[flwxwatcher]

12Z GFS continues the trend of trying to develope 2 systems behind Dean. Lets see how that trend pans out

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

12Z GFS continues the trend of trying to develope 2 systems behind Dean. Lets see how that trend pans out

Here is the 12Z GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[jimvb]

There is apparently going to be some sort of storm on September 1. The last eight GFS runs have shown this storm, with some consistency. Here is the GFS string for this storm (Felix, Gabrielle, whatever):

56966548

The key for this is:

0 - Mexico and southern Texas (TMEX)
1 - Houston area (HOGA)
2 - Louisiana/Texas border (LATX)
3 - New Orleans and Mississippi (NOLA)
4 - Pensacola and Mobile (PEMO)
5 - Up Florida way (peninsula) (FLOW)
6 - Outer Banks (OUBA)
7 - New England (NYNE)
8 - Canadian Maritimes (MARI)
9 - Out to sea without hitting the North American continent (FISH)

The average seems to be OUBA, which means the storm will come up my way. The latest run shows the storm missing OUBA and heading up to Canada to become an 8 (MARI). This long out, the place may not be the one it will head for, and we may have to wait a week before the GFS string stabilizes. But it does say that another storm is likely.