Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Extremeweatherguy]

ok now this is starting to scare me. My house is 9 feet
above sea level and only 5 feet above the water
level in the canal in my backyard that connects to
tampa bay.....

Anything higher than a 50 mph TS and my streets
flood from tidal surge...

I wouldn't get scared just yet. The chances that the models are going to be dead on 5+ days out with a system that hasn't even developed yet is slim to none. Let's wait and see what the next few days bring first before worrying too much. Any system that does form could still go anywhere from Central America to Texas to Florida or even east of Florida. There are just so many variables to consider.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thank you all for that information


mother nature can be really weird sometimes

when LA had a drought in 2005 some rain would have
solved it but instead monster hurricanes came.
I thought stuff was supposed to balance out...
but nature seems to work in extremes- extreme
drought in Place A, and then a big hurricane
hitting Place A, 2 totally different extremes
with their shares of major problems/disaster for
people in Place A.

It seems that an original weather event- drought
is devastating to crops, etc. and then a hurricane
is then devastating to buildings/roads/etc.

Nature seems to be on the crazy side.

[Derek Ortt]

a dissenting opinion is provided by the canadian, it forms the TC, but shoves it over Nicaragua (a cruel solution to be sure)

[Vortex]

H-132 Nogaps strengthening storm over South florida..


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=132

[Brent]

a dissenting opinion is provided by the canadian, it forms the TC, but shoves it over Nicaragua (a cruel solution to be sure)

Ouch.

[flwxwatcher]

NOGAPS AT 144HR

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=144

[Derek Ortt]

How boring

I'll let your post speak for itself

[gatorcane]

I think he means that everything decent that forms in the Atlantic (except Humberto) seems to be staying south of 15N...every Atlantic invest/system north of 15N has been sheared to bits this season (including Gabrielle) and if this low did this it would be a short-lived track.

[Vortex]

H-132 Nogaps Altimeter reading is 29.40 over S.FL likely a hurricane if this ever panned out

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... tr&tau=132

[gatorcane]

Vortex can you post graphics instead please?

When I access your link I get a Security Certificate error.

[gatorcane]

South Florida statistically sees more hits from the NW Caribbean (ones coming in from the South) than those CV storms from the east.

Most people probably don't know that.

As Frank2 said, we can get hit any time of year but September/October are the big months (especially October). So that means we still have about 6-8 weeks left of hurricane season.

[Vortex]

usually october though...

[Vortex]

TWD 205 PM

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAIN INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO BE NWLY SHEAR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. THIS IS THE RESULT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT
SHEAR AND UPPER EXHAUST PROVIDED BY THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SW CARIBBEAN WATERS
FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES CENTER IN THIS AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.


BTW..whats the next named storm?

[Brent]

TWD 205 PM

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAIN INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO BE NWLY SHEAR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. THIS IS THE RESULT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT
SHEAR AND UPPER EXHAUST PROVIDED BY THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SW CARIBBEAN WATERS
FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES CENTER IN THIS AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.


BTW..whats the next named storm?

Jerry.

[canetracker]

Vortex can you post graphics instead please?

When I access your link I get a Security Certificate error.

The navy site pending the areas you are viewing, will do that. You have to click :"Continue to the Website" to see the graphic.

[canegrl04]

TWD 205 PM

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAIN INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO BE NWLY SHEAR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN. THIS IS THE RESULT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT
SHEAR AND UPPER EXHAUST PROVIDED BY THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SW CARIBBEAN WATERS
FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES CENTER IN THIS AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.


BTW..whats the next named storm?

Jerry.

Then Karen,Lorenzo,Melissa

[eaglegirl]

ok now this is starting to scare me. My house is 9 feet
above sea level and only 5 feet above the water
level in the canal in my backyard that connects to
tampa bay.....

Anything higher than a 50 mph TS and my streets
flood from tidal surge...

Until a month ago, I was one of your fellow residents, living directly on the water, 2 feet above sea level, for over 25 years.

Being up close and personal with disaster response, I can't tell you what a relief it is... to now be located 34 miles from the coast and 200 feet above sea level.

Granted, I will still be ready if something comes Florida's way... but, it is very nice to not be as vulnerable as I was.

I am in no way predicting a hit to the Tampa Bay area, but if something approaches, send me your location. I will come check on you when I come back to help.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks for kind words

Here is the NOGAPS Hurricane Over South Florida
The Hurricane Does a Hurricane Wilma Path.
For those that are having errors opening the link:

[ROCK]

12Z UKMET......wants to take into LA...didnt know if that had been posted yet..sorry if it has...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[jhamps10]

12Z UKMET......wants to take into LA...didnt know if that had been posted yet..sorry if it has...


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

hasn't been posted yet, and is interesting, now we wait on euro, and canadian.