Tropical Development in Area East of Bahamas?

[caneman]

I guess I don't understand that. If NHC sees it as an invest. That is good enough for me. This board follows what the NHC says closely. I'm sure they're the experts in this matter and perhaps have the insight already.

[dizzyfish]

Floater 2 is over this.I smell invest 91L later today.

Yep, me too! I would bet it may even be sometime this morning.
I saw this blob awhile ago when I was checking on our weather for today. Fairly caught my attention! They even mentioned it in our local NWS forecast from 3:35am. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[caneman]

you may want to at least change this thread title to. NHC tags invest on Bahams. It would be more accurate.

[Vortex]

How about that upper-air moisten laden atmosphere on the latest WV invest from NHC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv.jpg

[Thunder44]

Conditions aren't as favorable for this area to develop as it seemed. According to a 9z CIMSS analysis upper-level ridge is huge and centerd over the NW Carribean and has been moving to SW and W. The system is under the east side of ridge. It's currently causing around 20kts of northerly shear over this system:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html


You can see it on water vapor loop and satellite imagery. If system can move more to the west, more in tandem with ridge, the shear can decrease. I think development, if any, will be slow for over the next few days.

[cycloneye]

6z GFS Loop



This run shows the low pressure jumping around inside and outside the Yucatan.Trackwise,not credible by doing those jumps.

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SAT-TUE...RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS PUNCH WITH THE EASTWARD APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SAT...EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF SUN AND CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. CLOSER TO HOME...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS TAKES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LOCATED SOUTHWARD AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FOR MON/TUE. WITH MUCH STILL IN QUESTION WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT IN THE EXTENDED KEEPING MAINLY SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST. AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...FINE TUNING OF POPS AND WINDS LIKELY NEEDED AS SITUATION UNFOLDS WRT STRENGTH OF THE HIGH/LOW AND LOCAL WX IMPACTS TO EC FL.

NWS Melbourne starting to talk about future 91L.

[Emmett_Brown]

Conditions aren't as favorable for this area to develop as it seemed. According to a 9z CIMSS analysis upper-level ridge is huge and centerd over the NW Carribean and has been moving to SW and W. The system is under the east side of ridge. It's currently causing around 20kts of northerly shear over this system:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html


You can see it on water vapor loop and satellite imagery. If system can move more to the west, more in tandem with ridge, the shear can decrease. I think development, if any, will be slow for over the next few days.

This 300mb wind analysis from 00z look pretty favorable:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/3hh_00.gif

The shear map that you posted is probably more accurate. Overall, however, looking more favorable for this system than the others in recent weeks IMO

[NcentralFlaguy]

looking very healthy this A.M., very healthy. floater has it tagged as "invest" but no invest yet? the central atlantic system gets tagged first. unreal

[cycloneye]

Well now this has been tagged as 92L so thread is locked.Go to Active Storms forum.