2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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cycloneye
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1641 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:53 pm

The battle between GFS and ECMWF with the MDR systems (Euro) or no systems (GFS) rages on.Which one will prevail? We shall see.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1642 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:53 pm

12z ECMWF continues to show a fairly potent TS emerging off the coast of Africa by Day 7, trucks it west under an area of high pressure to the north and strengthens. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1643 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:The battle between GFS and ECMWF with the MDR systems (Euro) or no systems (GFS) rages on.Which one will prevail? We shall see.


Probably the ECMWF, to be honest. ECMWF has been showing this for about 4 days now, so it's being pretty consistent. The FV3-GFS also shows several tropical storms across the MDR.

12z ECMWF ends with a strong TS/minimal hurricane moving westward.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1644 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:00 pm

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1645 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 31, 2018 2:27 pm

The wave behind SIX still trucking west at 240 on the 12z Euro. Not defined at all but Tis the Season. I slapped a star on it.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1646 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:26 pm

18z GFS now develops same system that Euro has on day 7.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1647 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:33 pm

Not seeing the same type of ridging present as with the ECMWF, so the 18z GFS will probably recurve the system.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1648 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:44 pm

Still westward.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1649 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:49 pm

:uarrow: It weakens after the above.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1650 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:55 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: It weakens after the above.

Looks like it encounters some form of shear no?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1651 Postby KAlexPR » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:56 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: It weakens after the above.


The GFS loses resolution after 240 hours.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1652 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:58 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
cycloneye wrote::uarrow: It weakens after the above.

Looks like it encounters some form of shear no?


Or is shear or is dry air as waters are warm enough to support a Tropical Cyclone.

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1653 Postby MetroMike » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:45 pm

GFS seems stuck in a cycle of these systems but it stumps me why?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1654 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:20 pm

GFS just kills off the wave that treks west.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1655 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:21 pm

MetroMike wrote:GFS seems stuck in a cycle of these systems but it stumps me why?


I think the model has convective feedback issues, though I'm not sure if it has to do with over-intensifying existing systems.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1656 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:31 pm

The 0zGFS is showing a possible subtropical system forming in a week and approaching the Carolinas, is this something that may have to be watched. Landfalls at 288hrs in North Carolina as a tropical storm

Also look what it does with the wave that comes off in 5 to 6 days it sends it to near The Bahamas at the end of the run, this may be the one to watch because if that trough isn’t there there’s going to be problems but since that’s 15 days away the details will probably change drastically
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1657 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:08 am

:spam:

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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1658 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:11 am

Could be a busy September if this edition of the Euro is correct

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1035780053496410113


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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1659 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 01, 2018 2:48 am

Looks like it's gonna be a "get out the pop-corn" kinda :flag: weekend.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1660 Postby drezee » Sat Sep 01, 2018 3:07 am

Euro 240 ensembles say sustained ridge...hard to get recurve west of 65W
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