2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

That’s almost El Niño-esque LMFAO

No, El Nino doesn't cause troughs. 2010 was a huge La Nina and had those troughs.

60's into northern FL. on the latest GFS.

I’ll believe it when I see it! Besides it’s August 28th not September 28th. The GFS has a long history of over amplifying troughs.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just remember, troughs like this are a double edged sword, just as capable of resulting in steering like an Ivan or Charley situation as an Earl or an Igor. If a troughing pattern sets up, everything in the Caribbean will need to be watched closely through October.

[Spacecoast]

I’ll believe it when I see it! Besides it’s August 28th not September 28th. The GFS has a long history of over amplifying troughs.

It did happen 3 years ago.

Sept 10-12, 2017 Panama City / Tallahassee

4:00PM: 68 degrees...
Overnight low: 62 degrees
Stayed in the 60's for ~40 hours until Sept 12th, 2017 9:00AM

[TheStormExpert]

I’ll believe it when I see it! Besides it’s August 28th not September 28th. The GFS has a long history of over amplifying troughs.

It did happen 3 years ago.

Sept 10-12, 2017 Panama City / Tallahassee

4:00PM: 68 degrees...
Overnight low: 62 degrees
Stayed in the 60's for ~40 hours until Sept 12th, 2017 9:00AM

The same time Hurricane Irma hit South Florida.

[Steve]

Just remember, troughs like this are a double edged sword, just as capable of resulting in steering like an Ivan or Charley situation as an Earl or an Igor. If a troughing pattern sets up, everything in the Caribbean will need to be watched closely through October.

For sure. When they come down, you can often expect to also see heat from the tropics coming up. We witnessed it twice this week. Early fronts and troughs don't usually end the season. That was an old wive's tale people used to believe. Probably some still do.

[SFLcane]

Atlantic ridge is gone...

[TheStormExpert]

The 18z GFS was quite strange! With everything coming off Africa heading directly NW into the East-Central Atlantic. Outside of the super long-range major it had forming and meandering off the East Coast of the U.S. nothing else of significance develops through the next 16 days.

[TheStormExpert]

Atlantic ridge is gone...

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/29/a8ed999a46e66719b58db81754b4ae50-full.png

Not really unless your talking the Bermuda High then yes. But this is 10 days out and will change.

[jaxfladude]

Good news? And is it for real and also a more permanent feature?

[TheStormExpert]

Good news? And is it for real and also a more permanent feature?

Nothing’s permanent. Unless you ask our old friend Ninel Conde who used to believe in nothing but an East Coast trough.

[emeraldislenc]

It is almost like people are hinting the season is over. I still believe we will have some major hurricanes to deal with in the next 6 to 8 weeks.

[chaser1]

Atlantic ridge is gone...

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/29/a8ed999a46e66719b58db81754b4ae50-full.png

To me, that pattern screams New York to Maine risk.

[chaser1]

Good news? And is it for real and also a more permanent feature?

Nothing’s permanent. Unless you ask our old friend Ninel Conde who used to believe in nothing but an East Coast trough.

FACT

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Atlantic ridge is gone...

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/29/a8ed999a46e66719b58db81754b4ae50-full.png

To me, that pattern screams New York to Maine risk.

I feel the same way.

[toad strangler]

It is almost like people are hinting the season is over. I still believe we will have some major hurricanes to deal with in the next 6 to 8 weeks.

It wouldn't be S2K without a immediate downcasting element at the first sign of modeled CONUS east coast troughiness / weak Bermuda Ridge. Even though it's August 28th

[eastcoastFL]

It is almost like people are hinting the season is over. I still believe we will have some major hurricanes to deal with in the next 6 to 8 weeks.

It wouldn't be S2K without a immediate downcasting element at the first sign of modeled CONUS east coast troughiness / weak Bermuda Ridge. Even though it's August 28th

It’s a right of passage each season. Until at least something forms right in the Bahamas and heads west or NW

[SconnieCane]

Welcome to December per GFS typhoon enhanced ..

https://i.imgur.com/vQPvA05.png

Looks like the perfect setup to suck any TC straight into Long Island.

[Hammy]

Welcome to December per GFS typhoon enhanced ..

https://i.imgur.com/vQPvA05.png

Looks like the perfect setup to suck any TC straight into Long Island.

12z shows exactly that. Gloria 1985 track essentially

[sma10]

The Global Model Run discussion has always been a mixture of magic 8 ball and good-natured fun .. but this is the first season where I feel like we are literally back in the stone age. I don't trust any of these models on genesis, mid-range synoptic patterns .. nada. The whole season feels like The Twilight Zone

[eastcoastFL]

The Global Model Run discussion has always been a mixture of magic 8 ball and good-natured fun .. but this is the first season where I feel like we are literally back in the stone age. I don't trust any of these models on genesis, mid-range synoptic patterns .. nada. The whole season feels like The Twilight Zone

I feel the same. I pay close attention but they seem to be simply for entertainment.