2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[AnnularCane]

In 2019, didn't Chantal, Dorian, and Erin also defy what the models were expecting? I specifically recall 2019 when literally nothing was forming after Barry and people started moaning that it would be a 1914

Yes, I think everybody was pretty much ready to give up on the season when Chantal popped up practically overnight, and Dorian a few days later. At least that's how I remember it.

[Category5Kaiju]

The way I see it, I think some individuals rely a bit too much on models (especially long range ones) rather than the overall pattern to determine how a season is likely to pan out and whether or not a storm will happen anytime soon. Especially considering how many of these models typically have a WPAC/EPAC bias, I feel that excessive so-called "model-hugging" is not a very efficient thing to do, and I feel like this is part of the reason why some people get super surprised when the Atlantic suddenly springs to life and spits out strong storms despite the models saying otherwise.

[Deshaunrob17]

Thought I’d place this right here so we can tone down these season cancel posts.

https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1293254898168012803

15 days later, Laura became a 130 kt Cat 4 in the Gulf. Goes to show how quickly things can change in just a few weeks when the MJO background state becomes more favorable.

Don't forget that 2017 was officially cancelled in early/mid august because the GFS/Euro showed nothing. Irma and Harvey happened within 30 days of that...

After Emily formed in early August2017, there were many this year us gonna be bust and it looks like it will be a year for weak short-lived storms.. A week after Emily, the parade of hurricanes started - Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria and Nadine

[Deshaunrob17]

15 days later, Laura became a 130 kt Cat 4 in the Gulf. Goes to show how quickly things can change in just a few weeks when the MJO background state becomes more favorable.

Don't forget that 2017 was officially cancelled in early/mid august because the GFS/Euro showed nothing. Irma and Harvey happened within 30 days of that...

Oh...weren't the models showing nothing whatsoever at one point for the day that Harvey made landfall?

Yup they had Harvey as an open wave running into Central America- we all know how that tuned out

I do remember, there was 1 Euro run that actually had Harvey as major hitting Texas. This was like a week to ten days before Harvey hit Texas. However, the Euro backed off completely and probably didn't show major until Harvey was TS IN THE GULF

[Category5Kaiju]

Hey Gulf of Mexico, you doing alright there?

[Hammy]

15 days later, Laura became a 130 kt Cat 4 in the Gulf. Goes to show how quickly things can change in just a few weeks when the MJO background state becomes more favorable.

Don't forget that 2017 was officially cancelled in early/mid august because the GFS/Euro showed nothing. Irma and Harvey happened within 30 days of that...

After Emily formed in early August2017, there were many this year us gonna be bust and it looks like it will be a year for weak short-lived storms.. A week after Emily, the parade of hurricanes started - Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria and Nadine

Something I've noticed last several years is the models will literally show nothing the entire run as close as 5-6 days before formation. A lot of the issues before were fixed, but too far in one direction so we're flying blind to some degree with regards to genesis.

[psyclone]

I can't recall a time when the gulf loop current showed greater OHC than anywhere else. That prize typically resides somewhere in the western caribbean. Very interesting. Sea temps in the gulf have exploded as of late. The near shore temps here are about 90. Just sickening heat enabled by a recent trend of reduced convection and increased insolation. It may seem like there's not much happening out there but there is. The pot is on the stove... future chaos will be enabled by the silent heating in progress now...

[Category5Kaiju]

Because 2005 is frequently brought up in how it showed how the Loop Current could really boost storms that traverse it under the right conditions, here is what 2005's UOHC profile looked like at around the same time of the year as now.



And here's a look at 2020 at about the same time too; both maps use the same metric with kJ cm^-2.



To sum it up, 2021's Loop Current is very pronounced compared to some of the more recent years with intense and heavy Gulf action. Oh man.

[aspen]

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ocean/ohc/images/ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif

Hey Gulf of Mexico, you doing alright there?

Yeah…let’s hope nothing gets into the Gulf anytime soon, or else it could easily become a major. CDAS shows mostly 30C and even some 31C SSTs in the Gulf alongside the insanely high OHC of the Loop Current.

I’ve never seen such a high OHC in the Gulf before. That’s WPac-level OHC.

[Shell Mound]

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ocean/ohc/images/ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif

Hey Gulf of Mexico, you doing alright there?

Yeah…let’s hope nothing gets into the Gulf anytime soon, or else it could easily become a major. CDAS shows mostly 30C and even some 31C SSTs in the Gulf alongside the insanely high OHC of the Loop Current.

I’ve never seen such a high OHC in the Gulf before. That’s WPac-level OHC.

We say this every year.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1419636033520558080

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1419636033520558080

I had my doubts about the GEFS solution anyways, this only adds some support for it; the GEFS solution would have made more sense if we were headed toward an ENSO phase like warm neutral or El Nino that favors the Pacific basins, but that clearly is highly unlikely to occur this year.

[cycloneye]

With cool Neutral / Weak La Niña around, that GEFS scenario is going to be difficult to pan out because of the physics.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1419642820449669123

[SFLcane]

All the TCs on EPS are in the East Pacific for the next two weeks. I’d say aug 10-20 still looks like a good call when we might see something.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1419642820449669123

Euro continues with its severe split personality disorder…

I’m starting to feel like it’s kind of a toss-up as to whether this season will be just a bit above average (like something closer to 2018) or absolutely bonkers, because there are so many mixed signals combined with models never seeming to agree on anything.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1419642820449669123

Euro continues with its severe split personality disorder…

I’m starting to feel like it’s kind of a toss-up as to whether this season will be just a bit above average (like something closer to 2018) or absolutely bonkers, because there are so many mixed signals combined with models never seeming to agree on anything.

Wasn't 2018 a Late El Nino year though? I guess we'll have to see whether this season is more like a 2001/2008/2011 or if it is more like a 2004/2010/2017. Personally I think a very active season is still very probable, and I cannot see why this season would encounter huge issues down the line unless some once-favorable, major pattern completely and drastically changes like we saw in 2013 (which I am not relying on at all given how unlikely it will probably be).

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1419133471751016450



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1419133476545212417



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1419133480366116864

[hurricanes1234]

Not too sure how believable that chart is because it's showed below-average instability for years, even in some seasons that, you know, didn't quite turn out below-average.

[crownweather]

Ahhh, yes....finally the season cancel tweets are beginning to show up on Twitter. .

Come see me in about 30 days from now & if we are still quiet with little to show for development, then I ***might*** concede and say that this hurricane season may not be as busy as first thought. Until then, have some PATIENCE & don't jump the gun.