2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Kat5]

Welcome to December per GFS typhoon enhanced ..

https://i.imgur.com/vQPvA05.png

Looks like the perfect setup to suck any TC straight into Long Island.

12z shows exactly that. Gloria 1985 track essentially

https://i.imgur.com/aVWF8zZ.png

That’s one heck of a high over the northern Atlantic... 1043mb?

[GeneratorPower]

The Global Model Run discussion has always been a mixture of magic 8 ball and good-natured fun .. but this is the first season where I feel like we are literally back in the stone age. I don't trust any of these models on genesis, mid-range synoptic patterns .. nada. The whole season feels like The Twilight Zone

This season is going to be far more serious than we are currently seeing portrayed in the models. I think we have seen a persistent pattern of impactful steering. Dry air is confined to portions of the Atlantic that don’t matter. When it counts the systems get what they need. Laura was fighting dry air and poor stacking the whole time. Until she wasn’t. This is what is so frightening about the storm potential this year. It’s quiet and systems are disheveled until they’re not. And there isn’t much predictability at even 5 days. Laura was pretty well on track from 3 days out. But not 5. That’s a problem.

[Hurricaneman]

I’m wondering if the area that landfall in Long Island on the 0zGFS is the area between the wave near the CV islands and the wave at 50 W

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m wondering if the area that landfall in Long Island on the 0zGFS is the area between the wave near the CV islands and the wave at 50 W

That run is just weird to me. Isn’t it a little early to have storms moving nne from the Caribbean? Seems more like a late October/November track to me. That and the cat3 that forms in the mid latitudes...

[sma10]

I’m wondering if the area that landfall in Long Island on the 0zGFS is the area between the wave near the CV islands and the wave at 50 W

That run is just weird to me. Isn’t it a little early to have storms moving nne from the Caribbean? Seems more like a late October/November track to me. That and the cat3 that forms in the mid latitudes...

Not to mention that the upper air pattern depicted on the 0z GFS at 240 is completely out of phase with the 0z CMC.

Current confidence level: 0

[cheezyWXguy]

I’m wondering if the area that landfall in Long Island on the 0zGFS is the area between the wave near the CV islands and the wave at 50 W

That run is just weird to me. Isn’t it a little early to have storms moving nne from the Caribbean? Seems more like a late October/November track to me. That and the cat3 that forms in the mid latitudes...

Not to mention that the upper air pattern depicted on the 0z GFS at 240 is completely out of phase with the 0z CMC.

Current confidence level: 0

The gfs para is arguably even more bizarre. Spins something up just of the sw florida coast, moves it nw off of New Orleans, stalls it and strengthens it to cat3, then moves sw toward Brownsville. I don’t think anything can be gathered from these models other than that storms are going to form in September, which I think we already knew

[sma10]

That run is just weird to me. Isn’t it a little early to have storms moving nne from the Caribbean? Seems more like a late October/November track to me. That and the cat3 that forms in the mid latitudes...

Not to mention that the upper air pattern depicted on the 0z GFS at 240 is completely out of phase with the 0z CMC.

Current confidence level: 0

The gfs para is arguably even more bizarre. Spins something up just of the sw florida coast, moves it nw off of New Orleans, stalls it and strengthens it to cat3, then moves sw toward Brownsville. I don’t think anything can be gathered from these models other than that storms are going to form in September, which I think we already knew

Yes - that might be the starkest takeaway: the GFS and GFS para are not even remotely similar. Even in the short term

[Hurricaneman]

Also it’s not much different from the 18z depiction, the 18z went inland while 0z was offshore

[AxaltaRacing24]

Not to mention that the upper air pattern depicted on the 0z GFS at 240 is completely out of phase with the 0z CMC.

Current confidence level: 0

The gfs para is arguably even more bizarre. Spins something up just of the sw florida coast, moves it nw off of New Orleans, stalls it and strengthens it to cat3, then moves sw toward Brownsville. I don’t think anything can be gathered from these models other than that storms are going to form in September, which I think we already knew

Yes - that might be the starkest takeaway: the GFS and GFS para are not even remotely similar. Even in the short term

the gfs lowkey isn't similar to anything except itself.

[GCANE]

Interesting from the UKMET

[eastcoastFL]

06z gfs. Looks like the hurricane into New England is completely gone now. Doesn’t even develop.

[eastcoastFL]

06Z ICON

[aspen]

The latest GFS, GFS-Para, ECMWF, CMC, and ICON runs all show pretty good agreement on up to FOUR new TCs within the next 10 days.

1.) the wave by the Lesser Antilles develops in the middle of the Caribbean in a few days (GFS-Para, ECMWF, CMC, ICON)

2.) a potential STC starts developing in 60 hrs off of the GA/SC coast (GFS-Para CMC, ICON)

3.) the other AEW currently marked by the NHC develops in 4-5 days and tracks towards the Caribbean, with some models bringing it to hurricane status (GFS, GFS-Para, ECMWF, CMC, ICON)

4.) another AEW emerges off the coast of Africa and tries to quickly develop as soon as it hits open water in 200-240 hours (GFS, ECMWF, CMC)

[SFLcane]

Well just about 2 weeks away from the peak of the season not much to worry for the US concerning any threats. Maybe a few storms running up the ace in the middle of the ocean.

[tiger_deF]

The latest GFS, GFS-Para, ECMWF, CMC, and ICON runs all show pretty good agreement on up to FOUR new TCs within the next 10 days.

1.) the wave by the Lesser Antilles develops in the middle of the Caribbean in a few days (GFS-Para, ECMWF, CMC, ICON)

2.) a potential STC starts developing in 60 hrs off of the GA/SC coast (GFS-Para CMC, ICON)

3.) the other AEW currently marked by the NHC develops in 4-5 days and tracks towards the Caribbean, with some models bringing it to hurricane status (GFS, GFS-Para, ECMWF, CMC, ICON)

4.) another AEW emerges off the coast of Africa and tries to quickly develop as soon as it hits open water in 200-240 hours (GFS, ECMWF, CMC)

Well just about 2 weeks away from the peak of the season not much to worry for the US concerning any threats. Maybe a few storms running up the ace in the middle of the ocean.

The duality of storm2k

[toad strangler]

Well just about 2 weeks away from the peak of the season not much to worry for the US concerning any threats. Maybe a few storms running up the ace in the middle of the ocean.

True peak runs right through mid October. Don’t focus on the one day statistical peak. It’s not like a gallon of milk going bad right afterwards.

[NDG]

What in the world went on during the past 24 hrs about a deep trough in the GFS's 10+ day range,
You should know better than that.
Here's the GFS a few days ago showing a deep trough in the NE US early next week in its 10 day range.


Here's the short range GFS, where's the trough?


Plus something else to think about, even if a deep trough comes down the GLs/NE US into the MS river valley like the last one did a few days ago, if they do not keep progressing eastward the strong Atlantic/Bermuda ridge will still be taking hold just off of the US coast keeping the threat to at least the eastern US from tropical systems.

[NDG]

Well just about 2 weeks away from the peak of the season not much to worry for the US concerning any threats. Maybe a few storms running up the ace in the middle of the ocean.

Live by the models' long range, fail by the models' long range.

[NDG]

The best bet on a sypnotic pattern past 5-7 days is to go by the ensembles, which all still show a strong Atlantic ridging, especially in SE Canada.

[SFLcane]

What in the world went on during the past 24 hrs about a deep trough in the GFS's 10+ day range,
You should know better than that.
Here's the GFS a few days ago showing a deep trough in the NE US early next week in its 10 day range.
https://i.imgur.com/70O4tWr.png

Here's the short range GFS, where's the trough?
https://i.imgur.com/zezFGrI.png

Plus something else to think about, even if a deep trough comes down the GLs/NE US into the MS river valley like the last one did a few days ago, if they do not keep progressing eastward the strong Atlantic/Bermuda ridge will still be taking hold just off of the US coast keeping the threat to at least the eastern US from tropical systems.

https://i.imgur.com/XJsbJ9f.gif

We shall see... Just gotta keep an eye on it.

With the recurving typhoons, you get a ridge->trough->ridge->trough pattern. Like Isaias/Irene/Floyd