2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS...

[LarryWx]

Is Tidbits down?

[Steve H.]

Tidbits not working for me

[Spacecoast]

12z Euro:

[cycloneye]

Complete run.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Some breaking news: Tropical Tidbits now runs the experimental HAFS and its parent model. For those of you who are out of the loop, this is set to be the official successor to HWRF. I believe it runs with full FV3 core integration.

[Teban54]

Some breaking news: Tropical Tidbits now runs the experimental HAFS and its parent model. For those of you who are out of the loop, this is set to be the official successor to HWRF. I believe it runs with full FV3 core integration.
https://i.ibb.co/rbLrdLN/Capture.png

I'm extremely curious what it will show for the wave offshore Africa, should it be designated 90L.

[jlauderdal]

Complete run.

That looks like it should in late august.

[Spacecoast]

Some breaking news: Tropical Tidbits now runs the experimental HAFS and its parent model. For those of you who are out of the loop, this is set to be the official successor to HWRF. I believe it runs with full FV3 core integration.
https://i.ibb.co/rbLrdLN/Capture.png

I'm extremely curious what it will show for the wave offshore Africa, should it be designated 90L.

Also available here(HFIP site):
https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

[skyline385]

Some breaking news: Tropical Tidbits now runs the experimental HAFS and its parent model. For those of you who are out of the loop, this is set to be the official successor to HWRF. I believe it runs with full FV3 core integration.
https://i.ibb.co/rbLrdLN/Capture.png

I'm extremely curious what it will show for the wave offshore Africa, should it be designated 90L.

FWIW HAFS experimental has been available for a while on the AOML model viewer and its been a hit or miss at times

[SFLcane]

Eps doesn’t like the first wave but has support for wave behind still over Africa.

[Spacecoast]

[kevin]

The models have fooled us before, but it looks like the tropics are really waking up now. Strap yourselves in for hurricane season folks.

[aspen]

18z GFS is so far progressing almost the same as the 12z, with the northern portion of the first wave becoming a TD and staying weak in the MDR. The 18z ICON once again favors the second wave.

[BobHarlem]

18Z GFS showing something in the eastern Gulf next weekend, maybe TS, but heading toward the FL Panhandle.

[SouthFLTropics]

I’m afraid the 18z GFS is going to live up to its happy hour reputation and bomb this out in the Bahamas.


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[Iceresistance]

I’m afraid the 18z GFS is going to live up to its happy hour reputation and bomb this out in the Bahamas.


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Not this time, just a weak circulation, unless I speak too soon.

ETA: YEP! I spoke too soon! It bombs out north of The Bahamas.

[SouthFLTropics]

Shortwave swept in and saved the day for Florida once again… not sure about the Carolinas yet.


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[Category5Kaiju]

18z GFS trying to get going a 1932 Bahamas hurricane or Joaquin repeat, I see

[Emmett_Brown]

Artemis 1 will be launching from the Kennedy Space Center on Aug 29th, so hopefully this storm wont impact it. So much can change in the long range forecast, but the GFS shows this possible storm making its closest approach a couple of days after the launch, so not an issue yet (especially since we don't yet have a storm)