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chaser1 wrote:Dr. William Gray looking down with a grin "I see you all crowding around that light switch but I told'ya that you have to wait till Aug 15-20 for it to be flipped on"
tolakram wrote:There was, but otherwise we're in typical headfake late July where conditions WILL improve from west to east, EPAC first. Every season is different, which makes this interesting. A big cat 5 early, but no 2005 like activity in July.
This is why I showed 1933 earlier. Two hurricanes in July, but no cat 5's. Equal but different.
There was a 5 but it counts as only one system and there were some very lofty seasonal numbers and now there is anxiety.Category5Kaiju wrote:chaser1 wrote:Dr. William Gray looking down with a grin "I see you all crowding around that light switch but I told'ya that you have to wait till Aug 15-20 for it to be flipped on"
I don’t know about other people, but I personally already rang my bell on July 1.
I don’t really see it on Storm2k specifically, but I feel like a lot of wx enthusiasts on other social media sites seem to forget that there was literally a Category 5 hurricane in early July. Like, as if that didn’t mean anything?
chaser1 wrote:Dr. William Gray looking down with a grin "I see you all crowding around that light switch but I told'ya that you have to wait till Aug 15-20 for it to be flipped on"
"As of July 30, according to statistics maintained by Colorado State University, the Northern Hemisphere had racked up only 64.4 units of accumulated cyclone energy. That’s just under 50% of the long-term average (1991-2020) for the date. The Northern Hemisphere has also seen only about half of the average number of named storms (9 vs. 18.2); less than half of the average named storm days (30.0 vs. 72.2); and only 3 hurricanes, compared to the average of 8.7."
Were it not for Beryl in the North Atlantic, each of the four basins of the Northern Hemisphere would be running far below their average activity, based on these numbers through July 30:"
Spacecoast wrote:.chaser1 wrote:Dr. William Gray looking down with a grin "I see you all crowding around that light switch but I told'ya that you have to wait till Aug 15-20 for it to be flipped on"
Interesting post this morning from Dr. Jeff Masters Yale blog....
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/07/bahamas-bound-disturbance-likely-to-develop-by-early-next-week/
<snip>"As of July 30, according to statistics maintained by Colorado State University, the Northern Hemisphere had racked up only 64.4 units of accumulated cyclone energy. That’s just under 50% of the long-term average (1991-2020) for the date. The Northern Hemisphere has also seen only about half of the average number of named storms (9 vs. 18.2); less than half of the average named storm days (30.0 vs. 72.2); and only 3 hurricanes, compared to the average of 8.7."
Were it not for Beryl in the North Atlantic, each of the four basins of the Northern Hemisphere would be running far below their average activity, based on these numbers through July 30:"
This is looking at the entire N Hemisphere. The NATL numbers are already way above average..
https://i.ibb.co/vY4cs67/natl.jpg
Here are the other 3 basins (anemic?)
https://i.ibb.co/2Sc93Hs/natla.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/9HNKNcK/natlb.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/4t2H8F9/natlc.jpg
.
cycloneye wrote:The August CanSIPS run is out and is
August
https://i.imgur.com/JYVzYfq.png
September
https://i.imgur.com/6Us60eQ.png
October
https://i.imgur.com/1nsA9Jy.png
SST Anomalies for ASO.
https://i.imgur.com/yWKDvDT.png
tolakram wrote:There was, but otherwise we're in typical headfake late July where conditions WILL improve from west to east, EPAC first. Every season is different, which makes this interesting. A big cat 5 early, but no 2005 like activity in July.
This is why I showed 1933 earlier. Two hurricanes in July, but no cat 5's. Equal but different.
REDHurricane wrote:How warm do we think the Gulf will get by the end of the season? There's already a patch of 32ºC water just off Tampa Bay and we have at least 2-3 months to go before things start cooling off... are we going to see patches of 34 or even 35ºC by November??
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png
REDHurricane wrote:How warm do we think the Gulf will get by the end of the season? There's already a patch of 32ºC water just off Tampa Bay and we have at least 2-3 months to go before things start cooling off... are we going to see patches of 34 or even 35ºC by November??
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png
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