It is my opinion that it is impossible for a tropical wave to throw that much tight curvature. Especially a system that was already recognized as having an LLC.
If you sent a ship into the west wind of this system I suspect you would record near tropical storm winds.
As someone mentioned yesterday, the Quikscat reading on 145mph category 4 Hurricane Iris was "open wave"...
TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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BensonTCwatcher
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Man, did everybody eat snickers and drink mountian dew for dinner tonight? I got back to this thread AFTER I went to all the data. If I may:
The models always flip flop at this stage of the game
It may be an open wave as seen on QS but the 85ghz seems to indicate at least a decent LLC even though it may not be all the way at the surface enough to be represented well on QS
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
The ridge is there, really there
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html
either way Irene will not push through the ridge as open wave or even as a TS. In fact I doubt it can gain enough strenght to do much to it If a trough erodes it, then sure, but tell me where the ridge is now
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/TSA_latestBW.gif
and in 72 hrs?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif[/url]
The models always flip flop at this stage of the game
It may be an open wave as seen on QS but the 85ghz seems to indicate at least a decent LLC even though it may not be all the way at the surface enough to be represented well on QS
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
The ridge is there, really there
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html
either way Irene will not push through the ridge as open wave or even as a TS. In fact I doubt it can gain enough strenght to do much to it If a trough erodes it, then sure, but tell me where the ridge is now
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/TSA_latestBW.gif
and in 72 hrs?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif[/url]
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deltadog03
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BensonTCwatcher
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Sanibel wrote:The map of the ridge showed a weakness between the main Atlantic section and the Florida lobe...
Yes, and that is the current. It would explain a more NW movement. But it looks to me as if the ridge will rebuild 72 out or more. I doubt Irene can push though that weakness especially since she would tend to go westward as an open wave. If so she better get with it.
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Scorpion wrote:Majority of those models are way too far to the right.
i'm not so sure, for the first time it looks like they storm has followed the models and started moving WNW, but who knows still a long ways to go...as someone reminded me last night, it only took 96 hours for charley to go from depression to cat 4, a whole lot can happen between now and start of next week
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BensonTCwatcher
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Scorpion wrote:Majority of those models are way too far to the right.
too far right of what??
They look to be in agreement at least for the next 48
hours.
Last edited by dwg71 on Wed Aug 10, 2005 9:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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huricanwatcher
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