2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS also trying to develop the second wave very quickly right over the Cape Verde islands

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has that potential gulf system again, tries to spin up into a TD right before landfall on the gulf coast at 1007 mb. Also has that second wave become a hurricane

[AtlanticWind]

South Florida gets hit by hurricane sept 1and 2 per GFS
Heading out to buy supplies

[LarryWx]

For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET is developing an AEW that doesn't come off until 8/23:


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.3N 18.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2022 108 15.2N 19.5W 1002 32
0000UTC 25.08.2022 120 15.5N 22.1W 1002 31
1200UTC 25.08.2022 132 16.0N 24.8W 999 36
0000UTC 26.08.2022 144 17.0N 27.4W 997 42

[jlauderdal]

South Florida gets hit by hurricane sept 1and 2 per GFS
Heading out to buy supplies

Considering it has euro support and more than ample ridging to make it across, this would be an excellent time to refresh the supply cabinet; we have two solid months to go in sofla.

[Carolinagirl18]

South Florida gets hit by hurricane sept 1and 2 per GFS
Heading out to buy supplies

This morning nothing. Last night it was headed towards NC.

[toad strangler]

Lemon in the MDR

[cycloneye]

The day of the famous bell.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1560978708680347649

[skyline385]

Looks like something OTS is going to be our best bet for end of August.

[skyline385]

Its also been a while since we have seen good agreement between major models, the second wave is definitely one to watch

[MarioProtVI]

Its also been a while since we have seen good agreement between major models, the second wave is definitely one to watch

https://i.imgur.com/LF1fFfK.jpg

Given this year’s ongoing theme it will probably immediately diverge/disagree next run(s).

[Teban54]

Its also been a while since we have seen good agreement between major models, the second wave is definitely one to watch

https://i.imgur.com/LF1fFfK.jpg

Was just about to mention this. Summary of current model consensus:
- The wave currently at 19W (just offshore Africa, NHC's lemon) may develop into a brief, weak TS as it's lifted north and then moves due west. No significant intensification until it gets close to the Leeward islands or to their north. What happens afterwards is uncertain: some GFS runs blow it up north of GA, but some have it killed by the second storm's outflow.
- Another wave will exit Africa around ~8/24. This wave is also likely to develop, and has a much better chance at intensifying.

[Wampadawg]

I will say one thing,The Texas Target is still there ,we are 0 for 3 now the Canucks say next weekend on the noon run

[skyline385]

Obv still way too early but this ridging is not a good look if the second wave decides to roll up to the east coast, and its continuing to grow...

[SouthFLTropics]

Obviously it is way out in fantasy range but the the ridging on the 12z GFS is concerning. One other observation to note is how dry it has been in South Florida over the summer. I'd dare say we are well below average rainfall for this Summer. Something I've learned from years of experience is that Mother Nature always makes up for itself one way or another. We are due for some significant rainfall at some point.

[SouthFLTropics]

It gets into the mid Bahamas on this run but looks like a shortwave is digging. Turn to the north before Florida looks likely.

EDIT: At 378 hours, way too close for comfort. Florida may escape on this run but someone further up the coast would likely get smacked. Last minute turn like Floyd in 1999.

[toad strangler]

Obviously it is way out in fantasy range but the the ridging on the 12z GFS is concerning. One other observation to note is how dry it has been in South Florida over the summer. I'd dare say we are well below average rainfall for this Summer. Something I've learned from years of experience is that Mother Nature always makes up for itself one way or another. We are due for some significant rainfall at some point.

yep, FAR FLUNG 12z GFS with a Dorian like scare.

[ElectricStorm]

Can't trust anything in the long range but both of these waves could be troublemakers down the road. Will need to be watched

[SconnieCane]

The day of the famous bell.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1560978708680347649

Somehow I'd always envisioned it being more like a big locomotive bell hung in the NHC that he'd strike with mallet.

[SFLcane]

The fact it came of that latitude of Africa and made it across is very interesting to me. Something to watch surely!