TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[sponger]

I think Benson makes a solid argument!

[storms in NC]

Good night all. see ya in the morning. Now try and behave.LOL for yet it will be another day on as she turns

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think Benson makes a solid argument!

Thanks, but I think I am just sying what the discussion is saying. They are tempering the model fluctations since we are not tracking a defined LLC. Also, I just don't see a trough coming in late in the weekend and breaking down that ridge. If it's going to turn into the weakness it will happen as I sleep. Which I think I'll do now

[Swimdude]

Irene a 40 mph TS. Didn't doubt it.

[Sanibel]

The upper edge of Irene on WV loop isn't expanding north, but is instead staying flat against the ridge...

[sponger]

Yes it sure got quiet in here! Actually suprised me. I didnt think it was dead but figured it would hold off until tommorow. Now the fun begins!

[HurricaneQueen]

Way to go, MJ. You have given voice to the concerns if many of us long timers who have become very disturbed with the turn in the overall theme of this board. There is entirely too much competition to see how many posts one can get (both individually and as a thread). People (read children) who can hardly spell the word hurricane are telling the professional mets that they are wrong!!!! That, to me, is appalling. Although we all (including the mets) make mistakes, to be called out without any scientific data and little to no meteorlogy education to back them up is ludicrous.

Something has to give before we lose the respected pros who bring so much information and knowledge to this board. Many of them have been wonderful about explaining different aspects of meteorology and in several instances it is refreshng to see the younger set absorbing this information and asking intelligent questions. (examples-Kevin Ho and ~floydbuster) If only that were true if the remainder.

I've always loved this board that I have called home since it's inception but the changes are becoming extremely distruptive. I don't know the answer-I wish I did. Perhaps, there should be an age limit for posting or a limit on the number of posts one can make in one day. Whatever... the actions here recently must be creating huge headaches for the mods. I don't envy them one bit.

I'll step down from my soap box but that doesn't mean I like what I see.

Lynn

PS. Anyone notice that those who are the most disruptive are not S2K Supporters????

["caribepr"]I feel so ashamed that many that I've come to respect here are going nuts over this storm...castigating people they have listened to, getting hostile...and as someone said early this morning...I swore I'd not look at this today, but weather is an addiction of mine and so I looked.
Sorry to do this, but...
I'd ask some of you to look at stormcarib.com . A board with MANY from islands that have gotten hit and hit hard over the years. With many who watch the weather as closely as on this forum. But with the seasoning of reality. Which is...be prepared, watch carefully (remember, most of us do not have the comfort of evacuation), but remember how many go by without impacting our lives.
Frankly, when they do, it's huge. We watch, we wait, we don't follow every movement in freakazoid attitude, but we know what is going on because; we are prepared and we go on with life. Do we get scared? Hell yes, we've seen what happens. But...it happens or doesn't.
I guess I will say once again...following storms is addictive, wonderful, exciting, but...GO OUTSIDE AND PLAY, take a breath. I am ready to quit this site over what has happened this year versus the last two years since I discovered it, looking, as ever, for more information.
I loved the information, the education that I got, but now it's just degree by degree freaking out. Nothing to learn from that...seen it, been there. Not at all to denigrate the really brilliant people here whom I appreciate greatly, but I'm weary of the ...to not put it finely...crap.

and as an afterthought, while I'm in this mood, let me add...if we do get hit , we including the whole chain of Caribban islands (or farther south, or the many other *non-entities* to the mainland US), the ones I'm speaking of will be thankful that maybe *those islands* slowed it down while flipping out on how it is headed to them to wreak destruction. We are just a road bump for those who have the blinders of *me, it's going to be ME* on.[/quote]

[CronkPSU]

wow, talk about the models not agreeing...some say hurricane, some say storm..what storm?

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png">

[gilbert88]

Mmm... isn't "GFDL" dissipating Irene pretty quickly? Am I correct?

[SouthFloridawx]

it should continue on a more westerly track tomorrow... this is not an official forcast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[clfenwi]

Mmm... isn't "GFDL" dissipating Irene pretty quickly? Am I correct?

Yeah, it isn't killing her off, because it maintains the low... but still it brings it down to very minimum intensity fairly quickly... weirdness

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

(Note that GFDI is an interpolation of the GFDL posted above)

Also worth mentioning in case anyone coming across the graphic doesn't know, GFDN is the Navy's version of the GFDL... I don't know what is different about it though...

Since there is apparently a fair bit more to Irene than there was at 18Z I would not be surprised to see the 00Z GFDL have a somewhat significant change in outlook.

[Sanibel]

it should continue on a more westerly track tomorrow

That is the question. This lift could be due to the mild ULL beneath Irene forcing it into the weak spot. If you look at the outflow WV loop to its north the upper edge isn't moving north but is instead staying flat.

If Irene gets past this ULL to its south it could move more west again afterwards. This explains the variance in the models.

Also, the area near the coast looks hostile.

[Coredesat]

06z GFDL and UKMET (rest should be updated shortly):



EDIT: Okay, maybe not. Ah well, everyone makes mistakes.

[gkrangers]

Those are the 0z GFDL and UKMET.

They get updated a few hours late, hence the 5z timing.

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL text :

941
WHXX04 KWBC 110523
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE 09L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.0 59.4 290./11.1
6 23.9 60.5 306./13.2
12 24.5 61.9 295./13.5
18 25.5 62.8 318./14.0
24 26.5 64.2 305./15.3
30 27.3 65.7 300./15.5
36 27.8 66.7 294./10.4
42 28.1 67.5 291./ 7.8
48 28.3 68.1 289./ 5.8
54 28.6 68.7 292./ 6.0
60 28.9 69.4 299./ 7.1
66 29.4 70.0 305./ 6.5
72 29.9 70.5 316./ 7.0
78 30.6 71.1 320./ 8.7
84 31.3 71.6 328./ 7.9
90 32.0 71.9 334./ 7.9
96 32.8 72.0 353./ 7.4
102 33.4 72.2 338./ 6.4
108 34.0 72.2 0./ 6.6
114 34.6 72.1 13./ 5.5
120 35.1 72.1 5./ 5.3
126 35.6 72.0 13./ 5.5

Further west starting at 24 hours or so, but further north from 72 h on...

slaps self on forehead

[gkrangers]

Isn't that the 0z?

[clfenwi]

UKMET text

TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 59.3W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.08.2005 23.1N 59.3W WEAK
12UTC 11.08.2005 24.5N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.08.2005 26.0N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.08.2005 27.2N 65.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.08.2005 28.7N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.08.2005 29.7N 67.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.08.2005 30.7N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.08.2005 32.7N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[gkrangers]

You are slippin!

[clfenwi]

You are slippin!

I blame the sheetrock...



( ref: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 254#995254 )

[gkrangers]

00z Euro is out....the surface, 850mb, and 500mb relfections are so weak I can't tell where the storm is or going on the free graphics.