2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[weeniepatrol]

-IOD focuses sinking motion over eastern Africa and the western Indian Ocean. The African monsoon is still anomalously strong (strongest North Hemisphere -VP200a in fact) in spite of this and the suppressive MJO overhead

[skyline385]

-IOD focuses sinking motion over eastern Africa and the western Indian Ocean. The African monsoon is still anomalously strong in spite of this and the suppressive MJO overhead

https://i.imgur.com/9Bzuptr.png

https://i.imgur.com/hT0Tiiz.png

https://i.imgur.com/cpqu4eW.png

https://i.imgur.com/pCnrhxD.gif

Check out the report from CPC in my post above.

[zzh]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536392514457985026



Pretty much no correlation between IOD and WAM

[weeniepatrol]

-IOD focuses sinking motion over eastern Africa and the western Indian Ocean. The African monsoon is still anomalously strong in spite of this and the suppressive MJO overhead

https://i.imgur.com/9Bzuptr.png

https://i.imgur.com/hT0Tiiz.png

https://i.imgur.com/cpqu4eW.png

https://i.imgur.com/pCnrhxD.gif

Check out the report from CPC in my post above.

Yes, it shows rainfall departures being wet despite onsetting -IOD and the strong suppressive MJO, during the beginning of the peak of the monsoon when it is wettest climatologically

[zzh]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1485774673686241283

[Category5Kaiju]

Just by looking at what's going on in the EPAC, I'm actually more confident to say that this year will almost certainly not be a 2013-level bust for the Atlantic. I think it's tempting to look at Atlantic activity solely to judge this kind of outcome, but 2013 was also extremely unusual in how the EPAC struggled to produce major hurricanes until after September, and even that one major hurricane that came out of that season was not a Cat 4+ storm. That year seemed to have some "dark magic" cast over the EPAC and the Atlantic in how both basins struggled to produce anything substantial, with the EPAC underperforming in major hurricane count as well. With 2 majors already having occurred in the EPAC so far (with one Cat 4), it's clear that this kind of comparison simply does not hold.

[Yellow Evan]

Northward displaced due to the South American cool tongue and a -NPMM created 2013 EPAC’s issues. Not a fan of comparing that season’s relative inactivity to the Atlantic as if there’s one mythical driving force behind it.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1547574134065938437

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1547578108340973568

[SFLcane]

IF the JMA were correct we should start seeing TCs by ~August 1. So the clock is ticking

[cycloneye]

IF the JMA were correct we should start seeing TCs by ~August 1. So the clock is ticking

There are mixed signals among the models between JMA, UKMET, Euro, CFS, CPC and others, We better take the models on a day to day basis and see what is going in real time.

[SFLcane]

IF the JMA were correct we should start seeing TCs by ~August 1. So the clock is ticking

There are mixed signals among the models between JMA, UKMET, Euro, CFS, CPC and others, We better take the models on a day to day basis and see what is going in real time.

We'll see how the eps weeklies look later today and if it backed out of the season cancel mode.

[Category5Kaiju]

Can somebody explain how the EPAC is this active despite that large swath of brown, sinking motion in the VP? At least according to the JMA?

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1547614756055367680

[skyline385]

Can somebody explain how the EPAC is this active despite that large swath of brown, sinking motion in the VP? At least according to the JMA?

EPS shows most of EPAC at neutral VP, also the MPI is still maxed and has been for a while.

[cycloneye]

Yikes. Adrian, here we go from EPS. Our friend Yellow Evan contributes to the discussion.

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1547614765572243456




 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1547616281632710663




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1547618248102801410

[weeniepatrol]

Darby almost reminds me of the Atlantic in 2017 when the hurricanes ran high despite the subsident environment. I think Darby's small size gives clues about its persistence in a sinking motion environment

[SFLcane]

Yikes. Adrian, here we go from EPS.

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1547614765572243456

Yup, was about to comment. The mdr should warm some now just in time for the party.

Philip k. be like.... Got ya!

[cycloneye]

Yikes. Adrian, here we go from EPS.

https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1547614765572243456

Yup, was about to comment. The mdr should warm some now just in time for the party.

Philip k. be like.... Got ya!

Yeah, the perfect timing before his August 4 forecast.

[cycloneye]

More about the timing of the MJO.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1547622298026291200