2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Spacecoast]

Obviously it is way out in fantasy range but the the ridging on the 12z GFS is concerning. One other observation to note is how dry it has been in South Florida over the summer. I'd dare say we are well below average rainfall for this Summer. Something I've learned from years of experience is that Mother Nature always makes up for itself one way or another. We are due for some significant rainfall at some point.

yep, FAR FLUNG 12z GFS with a Dorian like scare.

Bears watching.....

[NotSparta]

Can't wait for it to get dropped when it gets offshore

[Teban54]

While the attention is understandably on the second wave, I find it interesting that 6z and 12z GFS both send the first wave (TS or remnants) into Hispaniola where the vorticity gets destroyed. This could be concerning if it went a bit further north or south.

GFS seems to be on a southward trend with respect to the first wave in the long range. Earlier runs typically sent it to the north of GA, with some runs showing RI there, similar to what the 12z run today does with the second wave.

[AtlanticWind]

While the attention is understandably on the second wave, I find it interesting that 6z and 12z GFS both send the first wave (TS or remnants) into Hispaniola where the vorticity gets destroyed. This could be concerning if it went a bit further north or south.

GFS seems to be on a southward trend with respect to the first wave in the long range. Earlier runs typically sent it to the north of GA, with some runs showing RI there, similar to what the 12z run today does with the second wave.

Always concerning if a system ends up north of the G.A. approaching the S.E. bahamas this time of year
The GFS has been going back and forth on this wave but this is still pretty long range.
These are always the type of situations I monitor this time of year being in S. Florida

Its the 1935 type of storm, or Katrina if it had a little more time type of situation.
They dont happen that often but something to keep an eye on.

[Blown Away]

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS and Canadian have the gulf system showing up late this coming week, CMC is over to South Texas, while GFS is over by Pensacola. Split the difference and the Midway point is near Galveston

[boca]

It’s not to common to get a hurricane coming in from the east or SE into Florida because the Bermuda high usually allows these storm to turn north in the Bahamas. Andrew was the exception because the high was building and forced it west. In this case their is always a trough that will eventually pick it up more often than not before it gets here just my opinion.

[Blown Away]

It’s not to common to get a hurricane coming in from the east or SE into Florida because the Bermuda high usually allows these storm to turn north in the Bahamas. Andrew was the exception because the high was building and forced it west. In this case their is always a trough that will eventually pick it up more often than not before it gets here just my opinion.

Past 30 yrs, Andrew, Erin, George, Katrina, Frances, Jeanne, Irma. Average every 4-5 years a SE FL Area hurricane landfall from the E/SE. Probably the highest probability in CONUS. Not counting numerous brush hurricanes.

[toad strangler]

It’s not to common to get a hurricane coming in from the east or SE into Florida because the Bermuda high usually allows these storm to turn north in the Bahamas. Andrew was the exception because the high was building and forced it west. In this case their is always a trough that will eventually pick it up more often than not before it gets here just my opinion.

The Florida east coast has seen 29 hurricane landfalls since 1871. One every 5-6 years, although obviously return rates are not close to easy math like that lol. We are currently in the 2nd longest dry spell since the modern period began in 1850.

So while it’s standard climo for a recurve to happen before a FL strike as the long range 12z GFS was starting to show, it’s not historically rare to get a hurricane into the coast.

[sma10]

It’s not to common to get a hurricane coming in from the east or SE into Florida because the Bermuda high usually allows these storm to turn north in the Bahamas. Andrew was the exception because the high was building and forced it west. In this case their is always a trough that will eventually pick it up more often than not before it gets here just my opinion.

Understandably, this is just recency bias. If you had lived in S FL in the 1940's, your viewpoint would've been "why do these hurricanes keep attacking us every year"?

[sma10]

It’s not to common to get a hurricane coming in from the east or SE into Florida because the Bermuda high usually allows these storm to turn north in the Bahamas. Andrew was the exception because the high was building and forced it west. In this case their is always a trough that will eventually pick it up more often than not before it gets here just my opinion.

The Florida east coast has seen 29 hurricane landfalls since 1871. One every 5-6 years, although obviously return rates are not close to easy math like that lol. We are currently in the 2nd longest dry spell since the modern period began in 1850.

So while it’s standard climo for a recurve to happen before a FL strike as the long range 12z GFS was starting to show, it’s not historically rare to get a hurricane into the coast.

Yes, in fact I remember hearing in an interview with an NHC forecaster many years ago that S FL is the most vulnerable area of the continental US, simply by the way it juts out geographically. It's all down to ridge/trough luck whether it gets hit

[skyline385]

It’s not to common to get a hurricane coming in from the east or SE into Florida because the Bermuda high usually allows these storm to turn north in the Bahamas. Andrew was the exception because the high was building and forced it west. In this case their is always a trough that will eventually pick it up more often than not before it gets here just my opinion.

The Florida east coast has seen 29 hurricane landfalls since 1871. One every 5-6 years, although obviously return rates are not close to easy math like that lol. We are currently in the 2nd longest dry spell since the modern period began in 1850.

So while it’s standard climo for a recurve to happen before a FL strike as the long range 12z GFS was starting to show, it’s not historically rare to get a hurricane into the coast.

Yes, in fact I remember hearing in an interview with an NHC forecaster many years ago that S FL is the most vulnerable area of the continental US, simply by the way it juts out geographically. It's all down to ridge/trough luck whether it gets hit

Yea you can see it on the NOAA hurricane return period maps as well

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS: Compared to 6z. Most members north of 20N, 60W, but on more of WNW trajectory.



and 12z Euro:

[Hurricaneman]

What the 12zGFS shows for the wave currently over Mali shows development starting in 5 days and it already has an advantage over the wave at 20w as it has a MLC so wouldn’t be surprised if that wave near Mali also gets lemoned tomorrow or early Tuesday

[skyline385]

Both 12Z GEFS and EPS looking very similar again (similar to 0Z) which suggests some actual TS probabilities instead of busts.

Most of the members are out to sea from the MDR wave but what's interesting is that EPS is also picking up more strongly now on the wave which the GFS first showed coming off-shore near Venezuela. Both ensembles have activity popping off the wave forming in the Caribbean now which probably is something to keep an eye out for.

[AJC3]

This post could also go into the (19W) wave thread, but since It does mention the wave currently over Africa, I'll post it here. This comparison of H85 vort progs will give you an idea of how much slower the 12Z OP-GFS is compared to the OP-ECM are with respect to the wave approaching 20W and the one behind it (currently over Mali) in about 6 days. The GFS does come pretty close to catching up to the ECM w/r/t the trailing wave by day 10.

[Blown Away]

Both 12Z GEFS and EPS looking very similar again (similar to 0Z) which suggests some actual TS probabilities instead of busts.

Most of the members are out to sea from the MDR wave but what's interesting is that EPS is also picking up more strongly now on the wave which the GFS first showed coming off-shore near Venezuela. Both ensembles have activity popping off the wave forming in the Caribbean now which probably is something to keep an eye out for.

https://i.imgur.com/wDTMvVT.png
https://i.imgur.com/fhNs34T.png

Odd when GFS is left outlier and Euro is right outlier.

[sma10]

Both 12Z GEFS and EPS looking very similar again (similar to 0Z) which suggests some actual TS probabilities instead of busts.

Most of the members are out to sea from the MDR wave but what's interesting is that EPS is also picking up more strongly now on the wave which the GFS first showed coming off-shore near Venezuela. Both ensembles have activity popping off the wave forming in the Caribbean now which probably is something to keep an eye out for.

https://i.imgur.com/wDTMvVT.png
https://i.imgur.com/fhNs34T.png

Odd when GFS is left outlier and Euro is right outlier.

Definitely. It's all 300+ fantasy-land anyway, but interesting to see GFS pull that system so far to the west considering it's development point.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS isn’t dropping the 12z signal. Buckle up for an entertaining Happy Hour ride.

[sma10]

18z GFS isn’t dropping the 12z signal. Buckle up for an entertaining Happy Hour ride.

Interesting to see if we actually get development. The cent atl ridge looks sturdy