2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

Not sure if this is where to post this but it may have an affect on future models. 45 people have drowned in SW Niger, near the city of Niamey where the Niger River has overflowed due to excessive rains. This is slightly north of the African tropical belt but may be getting influenced by these heavy rains.

The wetter than average Saharan Desert is likely contributing to the ongoing impressive SAL surges along with mid-level dry air which has been plaguing the Atlantic since the season began. This probably explains why the MDR has been struggling to produce anything significant and the season hasn’t gone complete gang busters!

I would have thought that would reduce the SAL by tamping the dust down some?

You’d think! But it may be displacing it instead over the Atlantic.

[eastcoastFL]

The lack of PIREPS is having its effect on the models. Personally, I'm glad for a few things, first, so far we've had one major hurricane (the other two hurricanes being low-end Cat 1's, and as we know that's comparng an F1 to an F4 tornado). Laura caused extensive wind damage, but the feared SLOSH model surge forecast did not happen, because the eye moved a bit east - something not expected - a bit (!) of a miracle, considering what almost all experts thought would happen.

And, the GFS is showing a very active and fast-moving west-east trough pattern next month (which can slow the wave progression to a crawl), so perhaps sign of an early Fall - I've seen it happen more than once.

P.S. Don't get nervous over JB's predictions - in the summer he predicts hurricanes and in the winter it's blizzards. He's always been that way...

We still have 75% of activity to go this season. Don’t sound the all clear just yet!

Besides Joe Bastardi and his high land impact forecasting has been verifying very well so far.

Bastardi kinda lives by the blind squirrel theory. Eventually he’ll be right or just be so vague that you can’t go wrong.

[TheStormExpert]

The lack of PIREPS is having its effect on the models. Personally, I'm glad for a few things, first, so far we've had one major hurricane (the other two hurricanes being low-end Cat 1's, and as we know that's comparng an F1 to an F4 tornado). Laura caused extensive wind damage, but the feared SLOSH model surge forecast did not happen, because the eye moved a bit east - something not expected - a bit (!) of a miracle, considering what almost all experts thought would happen.

And, the GFS is showing a very active and fast-moving west-east trough pattern next month (which can slow the wave progression to a crawl), so perhaps sign of an early Fall - I've seen it happen more than once.

P.S. Don't get nervous over JB's predictions - in the summer he predicts hurricanes and in the winter it's blizzards. He's always been that way...

We still have 75% of activity to go this season. Don’t sound the all clear just yet!

Besides Joe Bastardi and his high land impact forecasting has been verifying very well so far.

Bastardi kinda lives by the blind squirrel theory. Eventually he’ll be right or just be so vague that you can’t go wrong.

True. But here’s a tweet with all seven U.S. TC landfalls including the ones in the Caribbean and his highest risks areas. He’s not doing too shabby for once actually!

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1299177923052818432

[StrongWind]

Not sure if this is where to post this but it may have an affect on future models. 45 people have drowned in SW Niger, near the city of Niamey where the Niger River has overflowed due to excessive rains. This is slightly north of the African tropical belt but may be getting influenced by these heavy rains.

The wetter than average Saharan Desert is likely contributing to the ongoing impressive SAL surges along with mid-level dry air which has been plaguing the Atlantic since the season began. This probably explains why the MDR has been struggling to produce anything significant and the season hasn’t gone complete gang busters!

It sounds counter-intuitive that a wetter than average Saharan Desert would result in increased SAL. Why wouldn't it lead to cooler temps and suppressed dust?

[toad strangler]

Not sure if this is where to post this but it may have an affect on future models. 45 people have drowned in SW Niger, near the city of Niamey where the Niger River has overflowed due to excessive rains. This is slightly north of the African tropical belt but may be getting influenced by these heavy rains.

The wetter than average Saharan Desert is likely contributing to the ongoing impressive SAL surges along with mid-level dry air which has been plaguing the Atlantic since the season began. This probably explains why the MDR has been struggling to produce anything significant and the season hasn’t gone complete gang busters!

It sounds counter-intuitive that a wetter than average Saharan Desert would result in increased SAL. Why wouldn't it lead to cooler temps and suppressed dust?

SAL won't be mentioned again post Labor Day until June 2021

[TheStormExpert]

The wetter than average Saharan Desert is likely contributing to the ongoing impressive SAL surges along with mid-level dry air which has been plaguing the Atlantic since the season began. This probably explains why the MDR has been struggling to produce anything significant and the season hasn’t gone complete gang busters!

It sounds counter-intuitive that a wetter than average Saharan Desert would result in increased SAL. Why wouldn't it lead to cooler temps and suppressed dust?

SAL won't be mentioned again post Labor Day until June 2021

We’ll see about that!

[Hammy]

Not sure if this is where to post this but it may have an affect on future models. 45 people have drowned in SW Niger, near the city of Niamey where the Niger River has overflowed due to excessive rains. This is slightly north of the African tropical belt but may be getting influenced by these heavy rains.

The wetter than average Saharan Desert is likely contributing to the ongoing impressive SAL surges along with mid-level dry air which has been plaguing the Atlantic since the season began. This probably explains why the MDR has been struggling to produce anything significant and the season hasn’t gone complete gang busters!

It sounds counter-intuitive that a wetter than average Saharan Desert would result in increased SAL. Why wouldn't it lead to cooler temps and suppressed dust?

ITCZ position leading to stronger easterly winds.

[toad strangler]

We still have 75% of activity to go this season. Don’t sound the all clear just yet!

Besides Joe Bastardi and his high land impact forecasting has been verifying very well so far.

Bastardi kinda lives by the blind squirrel theory. Eventually he’ll be right or just be so vague that you can’t go wrong.

True. But here’s a tweet with all seven U.S. TC landfalls including the ones in the Caribbean and his highest risks areas. He’s not doing too shabby for once actually!

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1299177923052818432

Bastardi's high impact areas include almost every mile of terra firma from Texas to Massachusetts, ALL of the Greater Antilles, AND the Leeward Islands. It's ridiculous Then he calls out anything outside that area in the ENTIRE sub tropical basin as non consequential storms. THe guy literally CAN NOT FAIL with that map hahaha

[toad strangler]

It sounds counter-intuitive that a wetter than average Saharan Desert would result in increased SAL. Why wouldn't it lead to cooler temps and suppressed dust?

SAL won't be mentioned again post Labor Day until June 2021

We’ll see about that!

https://i.ibb.co/GvKrqk4/g16split.jpg

Yes we will. I forget where I viewed a SAL forecast model last night but after this latest plume it's going to quiet down considerably.... that doesn't mean it will disappear though. SAL typically stays in it's active phase into early Autumn.

[NDG]

The wetter than average Saharan Desert is likely contributing to the ongoing impressive SAL surges along with mid-level dry air which has been plaguing the Atlantic since the season began. This probably explains why the MDR has been struggling to produce anything significant and the season hasn’t gone complete gang busters!

It sounds counter-intuitive that a wetter than average Saharan Desert would result in increased SAL. Why wouldn't it lead to cooler temps and suppressed dust?

SAL won't be mentioned again post Labor Day until June 2021

Indeed as we get closer to Labor day, the dust/SAL will be saying good bye for most of the basin.

[cheezyWXguy]

We still have 75% of activity to go this season. Don’t sound the all clear just yet!

Besides Joe Bastardi and his high land impact forecasting has been verifying very well so far.

Bastardi kinda lives by the blind squirrel theory. Eventually he’ll be right or just be so vague that you can’t go wrong.

True. But here’s a tweet with all seven U.S. TC landfalls including the ones in the Caribbean and his highest risks areas. He’s not doing too shabby for once actually!

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1299177923052818432

This map bothered me when it came out and still bothers me. He might was well paint the whole Atlantic red. Then he’ll never technically be wrong.

[blp]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1299875496369573893

[eastcoastFL]

We still have 75% of activity to go this season. Don’t sound the all clear just yet!

Besides Joe Bastardi and his high land impact forecasting has been verifying very well so far.

Bastardi kinda lives by the blind squirrel theory. Eventually he’ll be right or just be so vague that you can’t go wrong.

True. But here’s a tweet with all seven U.S. TC landfalls including the ones in the Caribbean and his highest risks areas. He’s not doing too shabby for once actually!

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1299177923052818432

I mean I guess you could give him some credit for that but honestly where else could storm go? lol. He covered every spot possible.

[AtlanticWind]

We still have 75% of activity to go this season. Don’t sound the all clear just yet!

Besides Joe Bastardi and his high land impact forecasting has been verifying very well so far.

Bastardi kinda lives by the blind squirrel theory. Eventually he’ll be right or just be so vague that you can’t go wrong.

True. But here’s a tweet with all seven U.S. TC landfalls including the ones in the Caribbean and his highest risks areas. He’s not doing too shabby for once actually!

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1299177923052818432

His highest risk areas cover literally 80 percent of the US coast and all of the Antilles
Those are the highest risk in any season
I guess if he was saying we were going to get a lot of landfalls he has been right
but I dont think that this is amazing prediction.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is developing something in The Bahamas at day 9, I won’t believe it til I see it but the fact the GFS keeps showing it is something that needs to be watched in the coming days

The 12zEuro shows some vorticity around the same timeframe so it definitely is something to watch as the pattern is setting up for such a system to form

[cheezyWXguy]

The 0zGFS is developing something in The Bahamas at day 9, I won’t believe it til I see it but the fact the GFS keeps showing it is something that needs to be watched in the coming days

The 12zEuro shows some vorticity around the same timeframe so it definitely is something to watch as the pattern is setting up for such a system to form

I agree, it’s a long way out but I think there might be something to this. GFS and GFS Para have been showing this intermittently and scraping it up the east coast to the northeast, sometimes as strong as a cat2. I believe the cmc also shows this area but keeps it weak and brings it west up west of Florida. A bit out of range for the Icon, but it also shows an area of vorticity moving into the Caribbean at the end of the run, similar to what the others show at that time.

[Hammy]

The 0zGFS is developing something in The Bahamas at day 9, I won’t believe it til I see it but the fact the GFS keeps showing it is something that needs to be watched in the coming days

The 12zEuro shows some vorticity around the same timeframe so it definitely is something to watch as the pattern is setting up for such a system to form

This all points to conditions becoming too favorable even for the non-developing models to ignore.

[Extratropical94]

The 0zGFS is developing something in The Bahamas at day 9, I won’t believe it til I see it but the fact the GFS keeps showing it is something that needs to be watched in the coming days

The 12zEuro shows some vorticity around the same timeframe so it definitely is something to watch as the pattern is setting up for such a system to form

I agree, it’s a long way out but I think there might be something to this. GFS and GFS Para have been showing this intermittently and scraping it up the east coast to the northeast, sometimes as strong as a cat2. I believe the cmc also shows this area but keeps it weak and brings it west up west of Florida. A bit out of range for the Icon, but it also shows an area of vorticity moving into the Caribbean at the end of the run, similar to what the others show at that time.

00z GFS-Para stalls it over the Bahamas for 4 days and then crashes it into the OBX as a Cat 4.

+180h


+276h


+318h

[N2FSU]

0z Euro


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[SFLcane]

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