2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

So there are sound climatological reasons William Gray used to ring the bell every 8/20, NOT 8/1
Rest up!

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1419770450910011394

[AlphaToOmega]

So there are sound climatological reasons William Gray used to ring the bell every 8/20, NOT 8/1
Rest up!

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1419770450910011394?s=20

Very weak -VP to strong +VP over the EPAC starting August 1 - activity will likely ramp up come August 1

[Category5Kaiju]

It's so interesting to see the two major models with pretty different ideas for what's to come. Although I am not so sure if the idea of favoring the EPAC into peak season is going to be accurate this year due to the simple fact that we're headed toward a more hostile state for the basin.

[BYG Jacob]

Based on things right now, it doesn't look like we're gonna get a Maria, Irma, or Isabel. However, just like last year showed, delayed development and a western favored Atlantic is probably the worst-case scenario.

I think Maria formed in a similar position to Elsa, so I definitely won’t exclude the possibility of strong systems forming in the western MDR close to the Caribbean. That’s where Felix originated too. But I will agree that something like Irma — forming in the very easternmost MDR, quickly becoming a hurricane, and spending many days as a major — is probably unlikely now.

The idea of a somewhat favorable ECAR is not something I want to see. Especially if the climate models predicting the late-season favorability in WCAR verify. That means instead of tropical waves moving into the most conducive environment possible, it could be mature hurricanes moving into the most conducive conditions possible.

[Category5Kaiju]

Fyi, I just checked the most recent GFS run, and it shows the EPAC continously spit out cyclones as if we were in a year on the brink of El Nino

I am not quite sure if this is simply the GFS loving the EPAC by nature or if it is actually plausible?

[AlphaToOmega]

All signs point to 2021 being a second-year La Nina. Fun fact: second-year La Ninas typically have a similar number of storms as first-year La Ninas, at least as of recent.

1998 (14 storms) -> 1999 (12 storms): 2 storm difference
2007 (15 storms) -> 2008 (16 storms): 1 storm difference
2010 (19 storms) -> 2011 (19 storms): 0 storm difference
2016 (15 storms) -> 2017 (17 storms): 2 storm difference

Based on this, 2021 should have 30 ± 2 storms.

[Category5Kaiju]

All signs point to 2021 being a second-year La Nina. Fun fact: second-year La Ninas typically have a similar number of storms as first-year La Ninas, at least as of recent.

1998 (14 storms) -> 1999 (12 storms): 2 storm difference
2007 (15 storms) -> 2008 (16 storms): 1 storm difference
2010 (19 storms) -> 2011 (19 storms): 0 storm difference
2016 (15 storms) -> 2017 (17 storms): 2 storm difference

Based on this, 2021 should have 30 ± 2 storms.

Not to undermine your point per se, but while we will have to wait and see to know for sure, I simply am not sure if we will get that many NSs this year. That would basically mean we would need to see roughly 6 NSs per ASON (and given what 2005 and 2020 did by now we should be roughly at the H or I storm). I personally think 20 NSs is a good prediction, but if we do manage to get 30 NSs this year, then I am going to have to rethink my understanding of the Atlantic basin as a whole for a while.

[CyclonicFury]

All signs point to 2021 being a second-year La Nina. Fun fact: second-year La Ninas typically have a similar number of storms as first-year La Ninas, at least as of recent.

1998 (14 storms) -> 1999 (12 storms): 2 storm difference
2007 (15 storms) -> 2008 (16 storms): 1 storm difference
2010 (19 storms) -> 2011 (19 storms): 0 storm difference
2016 (15 storms) -> 2017 (17 storms): 2 storm difference

Based on this, 2021 should have 30 ± 2 storms.

2020 was a record-breaking season, and had 9 named storms by the end of July. A lot of the alarming indicators in July 2020 (like near record low Atlantic SLP and near record low Caribbean shear) have not been present this year. I don't think 2021 will come anywhere close to 30 named storms. Something around 16-20 seems more likely. We can't expect to repeat 2020's named storm count just because it's a La Niña again.

[toad strangler]

Always a great reminder ... seek the GREEN dot

[aspen]

Fyi, I just checked the most recent GFS run, and it shows the EPAC continously spit out cyclones as if we were in a year on the brink of El Nino

I am not quite sure if this is simply the GFS loving the EPAC by nature or if it is actually plausible?

I think it’s just stuck with the current MJO phase, and we won’t see the models focus onto the Atlantic until the positive MJO has firmly established itself in the basin. Until then, season cancel posts abound.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

So there are sound climatological reasons William Gray used to ring the bell every 8/20, NOT 8/1
Rest up!

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1419770450910011394?s=20

[Category5Kaiju]

So there are sound climatological reasons William Gray used to ring the bell every 8/20, NOT 8/1
Rest up!

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1419770450910011394?s=20

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/869401639226835046/ezgif-7-0088c13b1b8c.gif

Oh boy, according to that the Atlantic has the green light by mid to end of August...

[jaxfladude]

So there are sound climatological reasons William Gray used to ring the bell every 8/20, NOT 8/1
Rest up!

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1419770450910011394?s=20

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/869401639226835046/ezgif-7-0088c13b1b8c.gif

Oh boy, according to that the Atlantic has the green light by mid to end of August...

So, in short, if this verifies, enjoy this current lull period of no designated or named system in the Atlantic Ocean Basin?

[jconsor]

Apropos to William Gray's famous bell on Aug 20... here is a look at how common hurricanes are in the MDR in the first two-thirds of Aug. The short answer - they are surprisingly uncommon and not a good indicator of seasonal activity!

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1419953725897052162




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1419963017551302657

So there are sound climatological reasons William Gray used to ring the bell every 8/20, NOT 8/1
Rest up!

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1419770450910011394?s=20

[InfernoFlameCat]

All signs point to 2021 being a second-year La Nina. Fun fact: second-year La Ninas typically have a similar number of storms as first-year La Ninas, at least as of recent.

1998 (14 storms) -> 1999 (12 storms): 2 storm difference
2007 (15 storms) -> 2008 (16 storms): 1 storm difference
2010 (19 storms) -> 2011 (19 storms): 0 storm difference
2016 (15 storms) -> 2017 (17 storms): 2 storm difference

Based on this, 2021 should have 30 ± 2 storms.

No

[Category5Kaiju]

I’m going to be very honest here as I think I fall under the same group at times, but I feel like there are quite a few folks who, after enduring through last year’s 30 named storm season, seem to be conditioned in a way to believe that this season has the potential to do something similar and that getting 30 named storms is very possible. However, I also think it is important to understand that getting that many storms is simply not a common occurrence, and in that sense 2020 was indeed a record breaking season. Hard to believe that simply thinking of getting 19 or 20 named storms now feels like very little, this just shows you how historic of a season 2020 was to make even the fourth or third most active years look puny.

[SFLcane]

Looks like the Atlantic Nino is waning and warming coming north into MDR.

[Blown Away]

We go through this every year on this board... The GFS will continue to show nothing out 16 days for about a week, maybe tease us with a phantom storm, Storm2k will be "Canceling Season" then @August 10th the GFS will show a Major Cane rolling across the Atlantic days 13-16 with a likely long range hit on Miami or New Orleans before it ultimately recurves OTS... Happens nearly every season...

[Category5Kaiju]

We go through this every year on this board... The GFS will continue to show nothing out 16 days for about a week, maybe tease us with a phantom storm, Storm2k will be "Canceling Season" then @August 10th the GFS will show a Major Cane rolling across the Atlantic days 13-16 with a likely long range hit on Miami or New Orleans before it ultimately recurves OTS... Happens nearly every season...

When it comes down to the Atlantic, while this isn't like true 100% of the time, in quite a few cases, it also feels like when the GFS shows nothing something actually happens, and then when the GFS shows something nothing actually happens (particularly in August).

[SFLcane]

The Atlantic MDR folks is coming… give it a few more weeks and look out.