2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1721 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:23 pm

toad strangler wrote:18z GFS isn’t dropping the 12z signal. Buckle up for an entertaining Happy Hour ride.


I know it is confusing but I'm posting about this in the 22W wave thread fwiw and I agree with you. This may very well continue to be the one to watch most closely in FL for near the end of Aug/start of Sep because of the projected steering.
Further north in places like NC to NE, I think the followup AEW to this may end up being the higher direct threat due to a better chance to recurve earlier.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1722 Postby chaser1 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:31 pm

toad strangler wrote:18z GFS isn’t dropping the 12z signal. Buckle up for an entertaining Happy Hour ride.


Correct, and Happy Hour does not fail to entertain! So Forida East-coasters, everybody got their food rations, extra water, and batteries in the pantry?
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1723 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:33 pm

18z gfs still showing something in a week trying to get going in the gulf right before landfall in the Fl Panhandle.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1724 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:33 pm

Second wave is less organized so far on this run, 1004mb at hour 216 compared to 988mb on the 12z run
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1725 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:35 pm

:?: 216 hrs, first TW has more moisture and 2nd looking drier?

These TW’s getting closer with each GFS run.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1726 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 20, 2022 5:55 pm

To comment or to post model runs for wave #1 in Eastern Atlantic go to the Tropical Wave off African Coast thread.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1727 Postby blp » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:00 pm

18z living up to its reputation. :eek:

Blocking pattern in effect..
Last edited by blp on Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1728 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:04 pm

Second wave becomes a major as the ridge builds back to the north. Might be a double strike
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1729 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:05 pm

Now this is a classic 18z GFS run :P
Double barrel action threatening the SE US coast.

In the LOOOOONG range
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1730 Postby sma10 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:11 pm

Well, if this were to happen, it sure would make up for the slow start!

(It won't happen)
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1731 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:13 pm

toad strangler wrote:Now this is a classic 18z GFS run :P
Double barrel action threatening the SE US coast.

In the LOOOOONG range


After the Southern Florida Strike from the first system is over New Orleans.
The second system is a BEAST!
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1732 Postby skyline385 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:16 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
toad strangler wrote:Now this is a classic 18z GFS run :P
Double barrel action threatening the SE US coast.

In the LOOOOONG range


After the Southern Florida Strike from the first system is over New Orleans.
The second system is a BEAST!


And just to top it off, second landfall into NOLA :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1733 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:16 pm

Happy hour GFS at its finest :lol:
Image
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1734 Postby blp » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:17 pm

Wow even for the 18z run. Look at that ridge that builds back in... :eek:

Good thing its the long range. On this one run Florida, Louisiana and the Carolinas would get hit. This would be very expensive run!

Image
Last edited by blp on Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:23 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1735 Postby aspen » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:17 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:Happy hour GFS at its finest :lol:
https://i.imgur.com/Lep2eJH.png

The storms, Florida, and Cuba form a face that isn’t very happy lol
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1736 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:18 pm

aspen wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:Happy hour GFS at its finest :lol:
https://i.imgur.com/Lep2eJH.png

The storms, Florida, and Cuba form a face that isn’t very happy lol

Yeah, I just noticed it and I can't stop laughing! :lol:
blp wrote:Wow even for the 18z run. Look at that ridge that builds back in... :eek:

https://i.ibb.co/cDQVYBn/gfs-z500a-atl-63.png
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1737 Postby skyline385 » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:19 pm

aspen wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:Happy hour GFS at its finest :lol:
https://i.imgur.com/Lep2eJH.png

The storms, Florida, and Cuba form a face that isn’t very happy lol


That face is like "Really GFS???" :lol:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1738 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:19 pm

Image

18z GFS is a keeper! Miami, New Orleans, and likely Carolinas all get a major hurricane within a week! :eek:
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1739 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:34 pm

And when we all sober up after partying with the 18z GFS…. We know better lol. If I had to hedge it would be one system winning out and not sharing the spotlight.

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1561128756173053955


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1740 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:37 pm

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1561126162633465856


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