2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Blown Away]

12z CMC/GEM... Very close to 18z GFS

[gatorcane]

18Z GEFS more bullish with tracks approaching South Florida or vicinity of:

[toad strangler]

18Z GEFS more bullish with tracks approaching South Florida or vicinity of:

Ensembles are even more clustered at 174.

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z GEFS more bullish with tracks approaching South Florida or vicinity of:

[i.org/3y1tzp39l/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_32.png[/img]

I do not see the deeper red colors on the ensemble plots. Does that mean the intensitiy is TD or TS instead of Hurricane intensity??


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[toad strangler]

Happy Hour 18z GFS OP also starts some spinning DEEP in the S Caribbean at the end of run in mid October and ensembles support this to. Now that's really Alice in Wonderland time frame so just pointing it out.

[joey]

12z CMC/GEM... Very close to 18z GFS

Even max Mayfield talked about the gfs run tonight for next weekend hmm

[blp]

Some of less reliable models are onboard as well.

FIM


NASA

[johngaltfla]

12z CMC/GEM... Very close to 18z GFS

Even max Mayfield talked about the gfs run tonight for next weekend hmm

When Max speaks, I perk up. He's one of the best. The consistency of the runs is getting concerning.

[otowntiger]

[quote="WeatherEmperor"]Actually the lowest pressure it shows is 986mb when it landfalls in South Florida




Need to see if the Euro does anything- although at this range it's still too far offfor Euro.

[otowntiger]

12z CMC/GEM... Very close to 18z GFS

Tiny storm- and definitely not very strong-TS at best.

[gatorcane]

Add the NAVGEM to the list of unreliable models. First run it has showed something in the Western Caribbean. Large system:

[northjaxpro]

Well, model guidance is definitely increasing. with strong signals with regards to the potential Western Caribbean system next week. I am already getting quite concerned about this potential obviously.

[blp]

12z JMA is onboard and develops it closer to Yucatan and brings it north over the Panhandle. Resolution is usually low on the free version so it is probably a hurricane into the panhandle.

[blp]

Ukmet has it now as of 12z but very weak 0.7 but that is also because it only goes out 7 days. Should get better as we get further along. I think we now have consensus on something developing. Euro is weakest amongst long range models amd also fastest as it ejects out quickly.

12z Ukmet.

[floridasun78]

could this ghost storm that models going crazy wont happen?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Anything is possible, if it was only a run or two of the GFS I would say maybe be. But we have now had consistent runs of the GFS and now other models starting to pick up in the potential storm, so I would think not.

[otowntiger]

could this ghost storm that models going crazy wont happen?

Yes. It is still quite possible for it to not happen.

[N2FSU]

06z GFS; +144hr

[N2FSU]

+168hr

[N2FSU]

+180hr