EDIT: Actually, looking at it in motion, I think that's 92L that then regenerates.
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SoupBone wrote:So on this 00Z run, it has a system forming right off the tip of the Yucatan, and has it head north toward the Eastern GoM, toward the Florida Panhandle. No Texas system this time.
EDIT: Actually, looking at it in motion, I think that's 92L that then regenerates.
SoupBone wrote:NDG wrote:SoupBone wrote:
"The GFS and some ensemble members from the European model suggest that tropical cyclone development is possible over the western Gulf of Mexico during Week-2, which has been indicated in our forecast."
So they're basing is strictly from model runs?
That should not be a surprise to you, forecasters do that all the time based off models.
It's not. Maybe I should rephrase the question. Are there other factors besides the GFS and a few ensembles used to add this as a moderate threat on the chart?
JPmia wrote:I know none of the models have indicated such a concern yet, but should we be concerned about the Upper Low in the Bahamas?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: I will point out that there is definitely an increase in convection over the Bahamas today compared to yesterday. We are in the peak of the season right now, and this area being close to the the Southeast Atlantic coast warrants monitoring.
JPmia wrote:northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: I will point out that there is definitely an increase in convection over the Bahamas today compared to yesterday. We are in the peak of the season right now, and this area being close to the the Southeast Atlantic coast warrants monitoring.
It definitely looks suspicious.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/
CrazyC83 wrote:The African wave train looks to be not done yet either - the system behind Helene really needs to be watched too. Could a system actually develop before leaving Africa?
HurricaneEric wrote:To add to that, this was hour 240 on the 12z Euro... looks like a wave makes the splash down off the African coast at a pretty low latitude. If anything, the models are starting to hint that the activity may still continue to the end of September.
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CyclonicFury wrote:HurricaneEric wrote:To add to that, this was hour 240 on the 12z Euro... looks like a wave makes the splash down off the African coast at a pretty low latitude. If anything, the models are starting to hint that the activity may still continue to the end of September.
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I wouldn't be surprised if we squeezed out one more storm from the MDR before the end of September, which would probably be the last of the year.
Kazmit wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:HurricaneEric wrote:To add to that, this was hour 240 on the 12z Euro... looks like a wave makes the splash down off the African coast at a pretty low latitude. If anything, the models are starting to hint that the activity may still continue to the end of September.
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I wouldn't be surprised if we squeezed out one more storm from the MDR before the end of September, which would probably be the last of the year.
Why would it be the last of the year? There are still two more months of hurricane season after that.
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