2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[emeraldislenc]

Thanks I thought it was in the same time frame.

[Hurricaneman]

18zGfs seems to be stuck on 84 hrs

Edit: it's moving again

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGfs seems to be showing a broad low forming at 108hrs

[Hurricaneman]

Development is slower on the 18zGfs

[HURRICANELONNY]

Just like about every year around this time. The pressures drop in the carribean and lows start popping up just about anywhere on model runs. Most likely something will form. When and where is the question. We wont know for at least a week.

[SouthFLTropics]

Cozumel is about to get wrecked at 360 hours!!!

[cycloneye]

We continue to stick here.No 8 PM TWO mention.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Based somewhat on the models and somewhat on my own guess, if I were at a Casino I'd bet we see a hurricane in the WCarib in 10 days, with a track similar to (obviously too early to tell this far out) Wilma.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS pushes back development and then buries it into the Yucatán. Seems a little weird that it wouldn't get picked up and head North this late in the season, however the ridge over the Southeast has not wanted to budge and we are about 3 to 4 weeks behind on the season.

[SouthFLTropics]

We continue to stick here.No 8 PM TWO mention.

I'm not surprised and I don't really expect a TWO mention until Friday at the earliest, especially if the models keep pushing the development timeframe back.

[SFLcane]

Bla.. why mention something that might not develop. ECMWF not to impressed thus far. Oh and please no more Wilma mentions.

[gatorcane]

Bla.. why mention something that might not develop. ECMWF not to impressed thus far. Oh and please no more Wilma mentions.

Remember the ECMWF wasn't impressed every run with Matthew early on, I recall one run where several of us proclaimed it was a GFS phantom storm since the Euro nearly completely dropped it. Strong signal still from the GFS ensembles again on the latest run:

[Miami Storm Tracker]

This is that time of the year where we look down there for development. If this does form for it to be a threat to Florida, I think it would need to move WNW up near the Yucatan Channel, then a front to catch it and bring it back ENE or NE a-crossed Florida. Other wise it goes over Cuba the Bahamas and OTS.

[hurricanehunter69]

Check out the decent signature at about 25W; on Mimic-TPW http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html I have to wonder if this guy can be the player in the Caribbean? The timing would be right.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Nice catch there I had to go back and look twice, I was so focused on Nicole spinning around, I did not catch the spin at 25W.

[jlauderdal]

Check out the decent signature at about 25W; on Mimic-TPW http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html I have to wonder if this guy can be the player in the Caribbean? The timing would be right.

Highly unlikely anything is making it across in october

[SouthFLTropics]

Check out the decent signature at about 25W; on Mimic-TPW http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html I have to wonder if this guy can be the player in the Caribbean? The timing would be right.

Highly unlikely anything is making it across in october

It wouldn't make it across as a developed system but I could see how it would be the catalyst for development once it gets to the SW Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM at 240 hours

[WeatherHoon]

One of you could probably answer this for me. Looking at the GFS, what I don't understand is how the disturbance parks itself right by Nicaragua for a few days, and once it gets going, then it turns WNW. Wouldn't it be more likely just to head west before it has a chance to develop? Also, it looks like the storm makes contact with a trough once it nears the tip of the Yucatán, but somehow manages to break through. What would be the cause of that? The strong ridge?

[SouthFloridian92]

Another Wilma would be exciting.